Friday, April 26, 2013

2013 Supercross | SLC | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo: supercross.com
I've been waiting for a mud race all season and Seattle delivered.  Of course I have an unusual obsession with dirt and mix in some Dunlop Geomax tires and I'm in heaven.  So riders seem to struggle in the mud and some will complain but nothing beats a mud race.

Weather is always the great equalizer but that didn't seem to bother Red Bull KTM's Ken Roczen.  I predicted a KTM sweep in the 250 class last week and I'm one step closer to getting this one right.  Points are tight for both East and West KTM riders that any mistake could be the difference between 1st and 2nd although Roczen seems to have the momentum - this class will undoubtedly be settled in Vegas.  Our boy from Colorado, Eli Tomac, put on a show as always.  He has to be the most charismatic of the bunch on a motorcycle.  Sometimes it seems like his mind moves faster than his bike and inevitably finds himself on the ground but he's a proven champion and when he finds that delicate balance he's unstoppable.

In the premier class Justin Barcia may have just stepped into Kevin Windham's shoes as the best mud racer in the class.  It is his rookie year so perhaps I'm getting a little ahead of myself but at Seattle I saw a guy who is not afraid of attacking a muddy track and that can be a game changer in such a long series.  I can't say I was too surprised with the top 5 and with Stewart, Goerke and Alessi out for the remainder of the season there are a couple of spots in the top 10 for the taking; Josh Hill, you feel me?

Ryan Villopoto put on another clinic but came up a bit short in the end.  He's still a lock for his 3rd title but anything can happen.  Dungey struggled but managed to keep the points tight and Davi Millsaps had to settle for bronze.  "The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself."  Not sure how many more opportunities Davi has with such a talented field of riders, his battles may just end his war.

This week the boys make a stop in Salt Lake City.  There will be many variables to contend with in SLC, not the least of which is the unpredictable weather; should be delightful.  For my little experiment here, race day scratches are always tough to deal with but what can you do?  Next season I'll adjust for that but till then it's business as usual.

450 Class

1.Ryan Villopoto (- 1)
2.Ryan Dungey (+ 1)
3.Davi Millsaps (- 1)
4.Chad Reed (- 1)
5.Justin Barcia (+ 1)
6.Trey Canard (- 1)
7.Andrew Short (+ 1)
8.Broc Tickle (+ 1)
9.Josh Hill (+ 1)
10.Weston Peick (- 1)

250 Class

1.Eli Tomac (- 1)
2.Ken Roczen (+ 1)
3.Jason Anderson (- 1)
4.Cole Seely (+ 1)
5.Zach Osborne (+ 1)
6.Tyla Rattray (- 1)
7.Martin Davalos (+ 1)
8.Kyle Cunningham (+ 1)
9.Joey Savatgy (- 1)
10.Malcolm Stewart (+ 1)

Looks like a bright sunny weekend in store for us here in Boulder County; time to take the YZ out for some roost'r tails - woohoo!!

The Roost'r

Friday, April 19, 2013

2013 Supercross | Seattle | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo: supercross.com
"Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, to assure the survival and success of liberty." JFK  

Our thoughts and prayers are with our fellow Americans in Boston tonight.  It seems inappropriate to celebrate at this time of great sadness but for an event such as this to disrupt our way of life would hand a victory to our foes and so my Supercross experiment carries on. 

Last week in MNPLS was perhaps the most exciting 450 race this season.  I could not wipe the smile off my face as the Ryan's battled with fierce intensity.  I have to say that I have a whole new respect for Dungey after last week.  He kicked and clawed his way up front to the rousing applause of an adoring crowd.  The final laps were nail biters I almost forgot who was in 3rd.  Davi put in a great ride but you would've missed it if you tuned out at the checkered flag. 

In the 250 class the points have really tightened up.  Any mistake by Hahn could hand the title right to Musquin, who has been putting in near perfect laps week after week.  Wharton has done a fine job this season but it won't be enough to overcome Hahn or Musquin.  I'm going to go out on the limb and call for a KTM sweep in the 250 class for 2013 - maybe that's not such a leap.  

Finally, the camera work was incredible last week.  The dirt looked great and some of the close ups were awesome; great job CBS Sports.  I also wanted to note the display of sportsmanship all night, It's such a pleasure to know that these guys are in fact having the time of their lives.  I won't bore you with my record last week so in the words of "Big John" McCarthy; Let's get it on!

450SX

1.Ryan Villopoto (- 1)
2.Ryan Dungey (- 1)
3.Justin Barcia (- 1)
4.Davi Millsaps (+ 1)
5.Chad Reed (+ 1)
6.Trey Canard (- 1)
7.Andrew Short (- 1)
8.Justin Brayton (- 1)
9.Jake Weimer (- 1)
10.Phillip Nicoletti (- 1)

250SX

1.Eli Tomac (- 1)
2.Ken Roczen (+ 1)
3.Cole Seely (- 1)
4.Martin Davalos (+ 1)
5.Jason Anderson (- 1)
6.Kyle Cunningham (+ 1)
7.Malcolm Stewart (- 1)
8.Christian Craig (+ 1)
9.Jessy Nelson (- 1)
10.Tyla Rattray (+ 1)

In memory of those lost and wounded on this Patriots' Day and this week, 2013.

The Roost'r

Saturday, April 13, 2013

2013 Supercross | Minneapolis | 250SX and 450SX Predictions



Photo: speedtv.com
“If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight.”  Sun Tzu would have been proud of the warrior named ‘Blake Wharton.’  Number 13 was not to be denied.  He came into Houston like an army with nothing to lose.  A quick battle grin in the air towards Musquin and Wharton was gone.  Hahn made a race of it but just couldn’t avoid the mistakes.  I still give a slight edge to Hahn for the title but what a night for Rockstar Makita and Blake Wharton – CONGRATULATIONS.

In the 450 class there’s the track, Villopoto and everyone else.  The field seems outclassed at times and Houston was another example.  Dungey has been stepping up while the rest seem to be riding uninspired.  Of course we know they’re doing the best they can, just doesn’t seem to be enough.  Canard had a great ride; he has to be happy with his performance.  Stewart, well what can I say, perhaps the outdoors is already on his mind.  As for Millsaps, I can’t explain it, the bike’s the same, the field is actually diminished somewhat so what can it be?  It has to be frustrating for the team.  Justin Barcia remains competitive but it’s clear he won’t be challenging for the title this year but he’ll be back.

Roost’r record last week: 2 spot calls in the 250 class and that was it.  In the 450 class I correctly called 1 and 2 others with the handicap.  Not as good as last week but I’ll take it.  Minneapolis is up this weekend and with the series winding down we can expect battles to rage for those on the bubble.  The best is yet to come, I just hope my best is yet to come too.  My picks for MN…

450 class

1.Ryan Villopoto (-1)
2.Ryan Dungey (-1)
3.James Stewart (+1)
4.Davi Millsaps (-1)
5.Justin Barcia (+1)
6.Trey Canard (+1)
7.Jake Weimer (-1)
8.Andrew Short (+1)
9.Matt Goerke (-1)
10. Broc Tickle (-1)

250 class

1.Marvin Musquin (-1)
2.Will Hahn (+1)
3.Blake Wharton (-1)
4.Jeremy Martin (-1)
5.Cole Thompson (-1)
6.Tyler Bowers (+1)
7.Vince Friese (+1)
8.Cole Thompson (-1)
9.Gavin Faith (+1)
10.Lance Vincent (+1)

This is the Roost'r; over and out.....

Friday, April 5, 2013

2013 Supercross | Houston | 250SX and 450SX Predictions


photo: amasupercross.com

Man, two weeks off, I sure needed that – typing can take a lot out of you.  For the boys on the track, I sure hope they got their rest and took a little time to sharpen their skills because this is the final push to the end and it starts this week in Houston.

Villopoto has taken a commanding lead but Davi lurks in the background and small mistakes by Villopoto can turn things around, again.  Both riders are riding very well and I don’t expect any huge mistakes from Ryan Villopoto so Millsaps has his work cut out for him.  We all know about Chad Reed and it doesn’t sound like he’ll make it out to Houston.  Dungey has also stepped up huge while Stewart continues to underwhelm us with his inconsistency.  I expected more from Barcia after his performance at Indy and I felt Chad Reed hung it there quite well under the circumstances.  With Reed out that leaves it open for someone else to make a move in the 450 class.

In the 250 class the story continues to be Marvin Musquin.  He is certainly carrying all the momentum heading into the final stretch and Will Hahn can only watch as his points lead continues to shrink.  It’s a numbers game here on out and these two guys need to keep it close now that Wilson is out of the picture (get well soon buddy).  Wharton is also riding well and I believe the field is thinning out even more coming into Houston so there are going to be some new names to follow.  This of course is going to make my predictions for the 250 class considerably more difficult to call.

So something noteworthy came out of Indy and continued on through to Toronto.  For those paying attention, I was 40% (50% with my handicap) in the 450 class at Indy and a great big fat goose egg in the 250 class.  However, for Toronto I was 50% without any handicap in the 450 class and 30% (50% with the handicap) in the 250 class.  This may not sound like anything to brag about until you actually try to predict the top 10 in each class.  The variance of a random variable vis-รก-vis rider error is so hard to predict and that’s why I decided to include a handicap in my predictions but it’s a treat when I can call the spot position in any race.  Calling 5 out of 10 is certainly noteworthy, just ask any hedge fund manager.

It’s coming down to the wire so a little advice from Abraham Lincoln; whatever you are, be a good one.  My picks for Houston, and the winner is…..

450 class

1.Ryan Villopoto (-1)
2.Davi Millsaps (-1)
3.James Stewart (-1)
4.Ryan Dungey (+1)
5.Justin Barcia (+1)
6.Jake Weimer (-1)
7.Justin Brayton (+1)
8.Broc Tickle (-1)
9.Matt Goerke (-1)
10.Andrew Short (+1)

250 class

1.Marvin Musquin (-1)
2.Will Hahn (+1)
3.Blake Wharton (-1)
4.Jeremy Martin (-1)
5.Vince Friese (+1)
6.Cole Thompson (-1)
7.Gavin Faith (-1)
8.A.J. Catanzaro (-1)
9.Peter Larsen (-1)
10.Lance Vincent (-1)

It was opening day today at Coors Field and the Rockies handed it to the Padres, I sure hope I can match that performance this week by making some calls.  Enjoy the races, I wish I was there.  Houston; enjoy!

The Roost’r