2013 Motocross | Tennessee Predictions

It was nice to see our local news cover the Nationals but nothing can replace the experience of attending the races in person.  The weather was great, the sights and sounds were all I had hoped for plus I get to update the garage with some new memorabilia.  Someday I hope to travel each week to watch the greatest riders in the world; a Deadhead of Motocross if you will.

In any event, our hometown hero did not disappoint with a great performance to his first overall of the season.  Roczen is riding extremely well and it's a

toss up if both these guys stay healthy this season.  I wish I could say the same for his teammate, Marvin Musquin.  I still believe he'll make a comeback and challenge for podium spots every week.  Baggett, Osborne, Jeremy Martin and Jason Anderson will be regulars in the top 10, especially after their performances at Thunder Valley.  Hats off to Jeremy Martin for leading the rookies last week, kudos.

No big surprises in the 450 class but what a dominating performance by Villopoto.  Is it too soon to talk about a season sweep?  RV is riding on a

whole other level, not even the fastest man on the planet can keep up with him.  As for Dungey, he is riding his heart out and passing Villopoto will not be easy.  Justin Barcia is catching up fast and the one to watch in my opinion.  James Stewart needs to find a little more control or his title hopes will soon be over.  Trey Canard  and Mike Alessi will both have solid performances all season long and both are long shots for the title but anything can happen.

My record was 30% in both classes, worse than in week one which could have a little to do with Clement Desalle and Kevin Strijbos, two MX1 division rivals, who had strong showings in Colorado.  In my business there's a saying; don't fight the fed.  In other words, take what you can get.  Had I followed this rule I could have improved my results to perhaps 50% through the past two rounds. Oftentimes over thinking can lead you astray so this week I'll take my own advice.  It's sure to be another great weekend for motocross; the envelope please...

450 Class

1. Ryan Villopoto (- 1)
2. Justin Barcia (- 1)
3. Ryan Dungey (+ 1)
4. James Stewart (+ 1)
5. Trey Canard (+ 1)
6. Mike Alessi (- 1)
7. Tyla Rattray (- 1)
8. Dean Wilson (- 1)
9. Josh Grant (- 1)
10. Chad Reed (+ 1)

250 Class

1. Eli Tomac (- 1)
2. Ken Roczen (+ 1)
3. Zach Osborne (- 1)
4. Marvin Musquin (+ 1)
5. Jason Anderson (- 1)
6. Jeremy Martin (+ 1)
7. Martin Davalos (- 1)
8. Blake Baggett (+ 1)
9. Cooper Webb (- 1)
10. Justin Bogle (+ 1)

I took a ton of pictures so have a look at a few of my favorites.  Motocross thunder comes to Tennessee for the first time; are you ready?

The Roost'r

2013 Motocross | Thunder Valley Predictions

Photo: allisports.com

This week AMA Motocross comes to Colorado, home state of yours truly.  Festivities begin Friday and I'd love to take the day off; anyone have any great excuses?

Once again I'm not a big fan of play by play analysis of prior events, you can get that anywhere but I do have some opinions about last week.  Villopoto is the favorite no question so I'll move on.  James Stewart will come alive as the season rolls on, you can count on it.  Ryan Dungey will have his share of podiums but I can't see him taking the top spot, especially once the Honda boys, Barcia and Canard, really heat up.  I have to believe Alessi will find his pace, not this week but watch him after round 3.  Weimer and Wilson will have a better race this week and Reed should make the top 10.  Andrew Short has always ridden well in front of a friendly crowd, look for him to place in the top 5.

In the 250 class, Roczen looked great and should continue his mistake free riding this week.  Eli Tomac will have the home crowd behind him and will certainly ride hard.  Baggett will be tough to beat this week despite all the drama around his wrist.  Marvin Musquin is the underdog and just might pull an upset.  The rookies looked great and fitness didn't seem to be a big issue although the high altitude will be the great equalizer for these guys.  I like Cunningham and Jason Anderson to put in strong rides and Durham should break the top 10.  Finally, how about Cooper Webb?  This young man will only get better, reminds me a lot of Eli Tomac in his rookie year.

My record?  I'd like to invoke my 5th amendment right.  For now I'll continue to limit my handicap to 1 position and I'd like to try something new this week.  Since the 250 class always has so many rookies, I'd like to pick the top rookie of the week, a powerball of motocross if you will.  The high altitude will challenge the riders and their machines and they will all have to make some adjustments.  This could mix things up a bit.  Ok, enough anecdotes, here are this weeks picks.

450 Class

1. Ryan Villopoto (- 1)

2. James Stewart (+ 1)

3. Justin Barcia (- 1)

4. Ryan Dungey (+ 1)

5. Andrew Short (- 1)

6. Trey Canard (+ 1)

7. Mike Alessi (- 1)

8. Chad Reed (+ 1)

9. Dean Wilson (- 1)

10. Jake Weimer (+ 1)

250 Class - Top Rookie (Cooper Webb)

1. Eli Tomac (- 1)

2. Blake Baggett (+ 1)

3. Marvin Musquin (- 1)

4. Ken Roczen (+ 1)

5. Jason Anderson (- 1)

6. Kyle Cunningham (- 1)

7. Zach Osborne (+ 1)

8. Cooper Webb (- 1)

9. Darryn Durham (+ 1)

10. Jeremy Martin (- 1)

I get to attend the event this week; with an all-day pit pass and my Nikon SLR, I should have my own pics, up close and personal, I can't wait.  Thanks for checking in; Thunder Valley here they come!

The Roost'r

2013 Motocross | Hangtown Predictions

Photo: Carl Stone / Racer X Online

Natural terrain; this is where it all began.  The teams have all been testing their outdoor setups, the riders have been conditioning for the long 30 minute motos, the tracks have all been groomed and the fans are just winding down from a monumental Supercross season.  This is it; 2013 Lucas Oil Motocross.

I'm extremely excited about this season because we might just have all the best riders on the track in the 450 class.  No more excuses!  If James Stewart and Ryan Villopoto stay healthy this year will set the standard.  The usual suspects will no doubt occupy the top 10 but that still doesn't make predictions any easier.  Stop the presses!  Yes, it's true, J. Law will be returning to the series and personally I can't wait to see what he brings.  He's always been one of my favorite riders, despite his off track problems.  Everyone deserves a second chance so Jason Lawrence make it count.

In the 250 class we have a lot of new comers so this class will be difficult to predict as always.  Looks like Tomac will be back on the 250's and he's my pick to win it all.  The defending champ Blake Baggett will most certainly challenge if he's healthy.  The boys of KTM will battle it out for king of the KTM roost and my edge has to go to Musquin.

My Supercross spreadsheets won't help me much this summer so I'll have to rely mostly on past observations.  Last minute team changes and scratches are part of the game but that won't stop me from drawing my line in the sand every week.  My favorite season for dirt bikes starts today with my top 10's; start your engines.

450 Class

1. Ryan Villopoto (- 1)
2. James Stewart (+ 1)
3. Ryan Dungey (+ 1)
4. Mike Alessi (- 1)
5. Justin Barcia (+ 1)
6. Jake Weimer (- 1)
7. Justin Brayton (- 1)
8. Andrew Short (+ 1)
9. Trey Canard (+ 1)
10. Tyla Rattray (- 1)

250 Class

1. Eli Tomac (- 1)
2. Blake Baggett (+ 1)
3. Ken Roczen (- 1)
4. Marvin Musquin (+ 1)
5. Martin Davalos (+ 1)
6. Cole Seely (- 1)
7. Blake Wharton (+ 1)
8. Zach Osborne (- 1)
9. Jake Canada (+ 1)
10. Darryn Durham (+ 1)

With 40 riders to choose from in each class, picking the top 10 from a very talented field is going to be an enormous task.  For all you fantasy players, let me leave you with some advice.  "Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."  Here they come Hangtown, you lucky devils.

The Roost'r

2013 Supercross | Wrap Up

Photo: supercrossonline.com

Ryan Villopoto would not allow the 250 class to steal the show so he went out there and dominated like a champion should.  I had predicted that he would take it easy, let the other guys have their day and start preparing for outdoors but boy was I wrong.  He left Vegas with his 10th win and no one could stop him.  Great job RV, I can't wait to see you on the long track.

Photo: amasupercross.com

The race for second always seems to fade into the background but there was no doubt 2nd overall meant something to Davi Millsaps and Ryan Dungey.  Davi rode hard but less than 100% was not going to be enough to beat the number 5 KTM rider in Vegas.  Davi owes a bit of gratitude to Villopoto for helping keep Ryan Dungey in check all season.  Davi had a fantastic season despite some injuries along the way, no one gave him a chance, present company included  Ryan Dungey had a phenomenal second half of the season and came as close as anyone can to stealing 2nd overall.

Photo: amasupercross.com

As for the 250 classes, words can't express the level of anticipation I was feeling.  I was somewhat disappointed however with the schedule and the elimination of the heat races.  As a fan I'm used to a warm up and it just didn't seem to flow well, felt like a pop quiz right after lunch.  The racing on the other hand was spectacular.  Watching Eli Tomac make his way up front was amazing, what a valiant effort, even though he came up short.  The East was just as exciting with Musquin doing the same.  I had predicted a KTM sweep but Tyler Bowers had other plans.  He was the ultimate spoiler and I suppose you could say the same for Davalos losing a spot in the West final.  These two races have got to be two of the best races in recent history, instant classics.

Photo: amasupercross.com

The shootout was anticlimactic I thought.  Certainly on its own it was a race for the ages but with such intense racing prior it didn't seem to maintain that same intensity.  Ken Roczen did an amazing job at redemption, the team has to be pleased although I'm sure they would have preferred it was wrapped up in Salt Lake City.  Will Hahn rode a very strategic race and in fact was very calculating all season.  He knew exactly what he had to do to keep himself in the hunt and he never wavered.  Blake Wharton also had a great year and team Rockstar Suzuki has to be pretty happy.  Eli Tomac gave it all he had in the final race and perhaps just didn't have enough in the tank for the shootout.  He was easily the favorite coming into this season.  It just goes to show how unpredictable Supercross can be.  Certainly Tomac must have felt like getting this evening over with and who can blame him.

KTM obviously was the team to beat this year with each rider placing in the top 3 in every class.  Geico Honda kept it close all the way to the end.  These two teams have clawed their way to become two of the premier teams in the series but you have to think that the Kawasaki and Suzuki teams will not rest. 

So how did I do with my predictions this year?  I have no point of reference but I'd have to say there is room for improvement.  I learned early on that calling the top 10 is almost impossible without a handicap but what a challenge.  Patterns emerged and for a guy who's nuts about statistical modeling, I have my homework cut out for me.

So what's next?  I'd like to continue through motocross although I may take a different approach.  With 40 riders and the absence of heat races it doesn't make sense to keep the same format.  Whatever I come up with it will have to take into account what I learned from Supercross; I'll keep you posted.  One definite highlight will be when the series comes through town, I can't wait!

So the curtain falls on the 2013 Supercross season.  I had a blast and many good things will come from this little experiment.  I've created statistical models and matrices that I can work with in the off season and with some back testing I should be more prepared for next year.  In the mean time, for all us purists, next is what we wait for all year; the outdoors.

Ciao for now - The Roost'r

2013 Supercross | Vegas Finale | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo: supercross.com

"Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war."  Get ready, the battle descends on Vegas this weekend.  By now you've seen or heard about the gross miscalculation by the Red Bull KTM rider Ken Roczen.  Equally disastrous was the mental collapse of Geico Honda's Eli Tomac.  Kenny served up the greatest gift Eli could have hoped for and all Eli could do was survive.  He did close the gap to 5 points and now we, the audience, will be treated to a glorious battle of speed, skill and frenzied emotion the likes of which we will not soon forget.

Amidst all the drama in the 250 class, yes a 450 champion was crowned.  Ryan Villopoto has joined a small yet elite list of riders to win 3 titles in a row.  Davi Millsaps gave a valiant effort but when it counted most the Rockstar Makita Suzuki rider came up short.  Ryan Dungey turned it up in the second half of the season but in the end he just wasn't able to match the intensity of those in front of him.  Both Davi and Dungey should feel great about their season, they've earned the title of top contenders next year.

Since the 450 class has been decided, how will the race for 2nd play out.  Clearly it will be Millsaps and Dungey in the ring for silver and I predict Villopoto will let them have their day.  Millsaps has been most consistent at the start and Vegas will be no different.  This weekend I see a fierce battle between the #5 and #18 with Davi ultimately pulling out the win.  In the 250 East I believe Musquin steals the title.  The 250 West will require more thought.  Musquin, Hahn and Wharton have not been off the bikes for that long so momentum may still be on the side of the KTM rider.  In the West, it's a tough call. 

I think mentally Tomac has the edge.  He undoubtedly choked last week but he was still in the race and had to overcome a tense and adverse situation.  Roczen did not have the same opportunity.  He will certainly prepare for this weekend but he has two things working against him; he's in the position of defending his lead and he has self imposed pressure to redeem himself.  If it's close early, I believe Tomac will win if he's racing from behind forcing Roczen into a mistake.  Eli is still 5 points behind so he needs a least one or two riders between them.  If they chase each other from a position of 1st and 2nd then Roczen comes out on top.  The heat races will be very important this weekend and these races could be the game changers.

So what about the 250 East/West shoot out?  The East has the edge because the ultra high emotions out of the West may rob the top 2 of their intensity.  My bold prediction for the 250SX Shootout is Marvin Musquin, Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen in that order.

This weeks predictions will be late but I didn't want to miss them either.  So here is how I think Vegas turns out...

450SX

1. Davi Millsaps (- 1)
2. Ryan Dungey (+ 1)
3. Justin Barcia (+ 1)
4. Chad Reed(- 1)
5. Trey Canard (+ 1)
6. Justin Brayton (- 1)
7. Andrew Short (- 1)
8. Broc Tickle (- 1)
9. Jake Weimer (+ 1)
10. Josh Hill (+ 1)

250SX West

1. Ken Roczen (- 1)
2. Eli Tomac (+ 1)
3. Martin Davalos (- 1)
4. Jason Anderson  (+ 1)
5. Cole Seely (+ 1)
6. Zach Osborne (+ 1)
7. Kyle Cunningham (+ 1)
8. Malcolm Stewart (- 1)
9. Joey Savatgy (+ 1)
10. Ryan Sipes (- 1)

250 SX East

1. Marvin Musquin (- 1)
2. Will Hahn (+ 1)
3. Blake Wharton (+ 1)
4. Tyler Bowers (- 1)
5. Lance Vincent (- 1)
6. Gavin Faith (- 1)
7. Cole Thompson (+ 1)
8. Vince Friese (+ 1)
9. Daniel Herrlein (+ 1)
10. A.J. Catanzaro (- 1)

There you have it, late but they're in.  It's 5:38pm MST and I don't think there have been any main events yet.  Looks like a weird schedule but who cares, this is what we've all been waiting for - start your engines.....

The Roost'r