Wednesday, May 28, 2014

2014 Motocross | Glen Helen 250

Photo: racerxonline (cudby)
Dissecting a race is common practice and the factory teams take it to a whole new level.  All I’ve done here is quantify what we’re seeing then illustrating those results for anyone who cares to follow.  Commentary and opinion are very entertaining and keep the sport alive but the numbers tell the story.

With my charts I can illustrate not only how well a rider did among his peers but with further analysis I can determine to what degree, among other things.  Follow along throughout the season and you’ll be able to gauge the momentum of a rider, or what I like to call relative strength – a technical indicator used to chart strength or weakness.  I assume the factory teams already do this and only out of curiosity did I decide to develop my own method of evaluation.

Let’s take a look at Moto 1 in the 250 class.  According to my calculations Jessy Nelson was my top performer followed by Kyle Peters, Dean Wilson and so on.  If I sort by CLAW score you would find another unfamiliar name in Jacob Baumert in the top 10 and Matt Bisceglia uncharacteristically in the bottom 10.  The meat of the curve begins with Christophe Pourcel and ends with Justin Starling.  You may have noticed that my scores have very little to do with the AMA Point Standings and that’s because I wanted a method of evaluating a rider rather than tallying points.

So how did I get to these results?  Well, it took a lot of hours of grinding out numbers until my results reflected what I saw.  I had to apply some advanced analytics to compensate for some of the random variables in a race and the result is what you have here.  It’s tough to watch every rider at all times during a race and this chart illustrates in one frame the performances of all 40 riders.  Over time the spreadsheets I use to figure all this out can be manipulated to evaluate multiple scenarios and should lead to some very interesting statistics.

It’s all greasy kid stuff but it’s interesting to know that there is so much more going on behind the scenes and I hope that I can bring us all just a little closer to that motocross team experience – enjoy! 

The Roost'r


2014 Supercross | Season Closer

Photo: racerxonline (cudby)
Supercross is over and what a fantastic season it was.  Not a lot of surprises in the 450 class but we did witness a bit of history.  The rookies had outstanding performances and some veterans moved in opposite directions.  The 250 class sometimes seems to take the back seat to the big bikes but I find the proving ground among the younger riders is by far more exciting to watch.

By now you’ve read all you can about the season that was so I won’t bore you with details.  I do however have a couple of observations on the season finale that I’d like to share.  First was the anticlimactic 250 shootout.  With 10 laps and 20 of the best riders you’d think you were about to witness one of the greatest spectacles in Supercross but it didn’t quite measure up.  Simply, there was too much distance between the front runners for anyone to give chase.  Not sure why, perhaps it was the track plus I think the broadcast crew could pick it up some (check out the Canadian Motocross broadcast crew, they’re awesome).  I had my brother all amped for the 250 shootout and it just kind of fizzled.  The main events on the other hand sure lived up to their billing.

The anticipation builds so much more when the series comes into Vegas without a winner so the 450’s put on the best show they could – I’d still pay to watch.  To be quite honest it’s the 250’s that stole the show, again.  I’m still not sure how I feel about no heat races in the 250 class.  Of course I know why but not sure that’s the best solution.  If I could offer one suggestion, perhaps something more like the Monster Energy Cup or Lucas Oil Motocross – have 2 “motos” for a combined score – that would really mix it up.

All in all it was another successful year for Monster Energy SX and we don’t have to wait long for the insanity to continue.  Lucas Oil Pro Motocross is on deck and for those purists out there this is where the rubber meets the road.  I love natural terrain so I’m super stoked for the outdoors.  We get one round out here in Colorado and yours truly will surely be in attendance.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this experiment as much as I have, Glen Helen is right around the corner; see you in Colorado.

The Roost'r





Friday, May 2, 2014

2014 Supercross | Vegas Finale Predictions

Photo: racerxonline (cudby)
It's L'Egregious Silo out of Southern Utah that has the guys on The Fan Morning Show here in Denver buzzing as the Broncos first round pick but the tasty morsel of sports news they're ignoring is the 4-time SX champ Ryan Villopoto.  We all know the significance by now so I won't get all schmoopy about it here but what a year it's been for Monster Energy Kawasaki.

The 450 class has been settled but the 4-time champ won't let up in the final round and the race for second place is still up for grabs.  The injury bug hit again in practice this week and our Colorado boy Eli Tomac is out with a collarbone injury.  Sounds like James Stewart will line up but not sure how strong he'll be with a bum knee.  This weekend could be a race between the KTM teammates, Ryan Dungey and Ken Roczen, for rule of the Roost, should be fun.

The 250 class is oozing with excitement and this final round should once again be a night to remember.  The West is tight with Jason Anderson heading into Vegas with the momentum.  His closest competition is Cole Seely and the Troy Lee Designs rider is going to give it his best shot – man I wish I could be there!  In the East it is Justin Bogle's title to lose.  The real race is for second place.  With Martin Davalos out and Baggett a game time decision, the privateer Vince Friese is on the verge of a podium spot and that has to have the Factory Metal Works camp pumped.

Vegas is what we wait for all year – the track, the drama but nothing more so than the 250 shootout.  Who will be the best 250 rider for 2014?  With all the injuries we'll never know but you have to be in it to win it and the best rider who I believe will emerge victorious is Jason Anderson.  He's been pounding out laps and wreaking havoc on the competition all season and if he takes the West title he'll be tough to stop in the shootout.


Prognosticating is a futile exercise in the sport of Supercross but there's nothing like sport within a sport.  Here we are, the 2014 season is coming to a close and Motocross is right around the corner.  "History is written by winners."  Ryan Villopoto is in the history books; who will join him when Supercross concludes in Vegas?  Thunder to descend in the Nevada desert; picks in the gate…

450 SX (+/- handicap)

1.       Ryan Villopoto (-1)
2.       Justin Barcia (-1)
3.       Ken Roczen (+1)
4.       Josh Hill (+1)
5.       James Stewart (+1)
6.       Ryan Dungey (+1)
7.       Trey Canard (+1)
8.       Weston Peick (-1)
9.       Andrew Short (+1)
10.   Mike Alessi (+1)

250 East SX (+/- handicap)

1.       Justin Bogle (-1)
2.       Vince Friese (-1)
3.       Jeremy Martin (+1)
4.       Kyle Cunningham (-1)
5.       Matt Bisceglia (-1)
6.       Alex Martin (+1)
7.       Matt Lemoine (+1)
8.       James Decotis (+1)
9.       Mitchell Oldenburg (+1)
10.   Gannon Audette (-1)

250 West SX (+/- handicap)

1.       Jason Anderson (-1)
2.       Cole Seely (+1)
3.       Dean Wilson (-1)
4.       Justin Hill (+1)
5.       Zach Osborne (+1)
6.       Malcolm Stewart (+1)
7.       Cooper Webb (-1)
8.       Jessy Nelson (+1)
9.       Jake Canada (+1)
10.   Shane McElrath (+1)

250 East/West Shootout (+/- handicap)

1.       J. Anderson (-1)
2.       C. Seely (-1)
3.       J. Bogle (+1)
4.       D. Wilson (-1)
5.       J. Hill (+1)
6.       J. Martin (-1)
7.       V. Friese (+1)
8.       Z. Osborne (-1)
9.       M. Stewart (+1)
10.   C. Webb (+1)

The Roost'r