Saturday, January 25, 2014

2014 Supercross | Oakland Predictions



Photo: amasupercross.com
I think we all missed the 1.21 gigawatt lightning strike that the flux capacitor at the third round of Supercross because I don’t think even Chad Reed knew what hit him.  Back to the Future is exactly what we saw last weekend as Chad Reed pulled off perhaps his most impressive come from behind performances of his career.  Will Hahn had an impressive ride as well but the night belonged to TwoTwo.

The 450 class overall provided consistent performances while the 250 class showed a little volatility as illustrated in the TRAP below (Figure 1.)  The standout in the 450 class I thought was Josh Hill.  After failing to qualify at Phoenix, Josh redeemed himself with a gritty ride.  I gave Josh a CLAW score of 25.322 which is just 21 percent below Weston Peick’s high score of 33.946.  Justin Hill in the 250 class is my other standout at Anaheim 2.  Improving by 3 spots from Phoenix, I gave Justin a CLAW score of 27.570 or 7 percent off the lead score of 29.960 set by Jason Anderson.  The brothers are on a roll; let’s see if they can keep it up.

I had this experiment of mine planned out to create a new form of fantasy Supercross by developing a different scoring method focusing on performance rather points or placement.  That remains the goal however I had a reader ask me to segment the two classes so that he could see how the riders compare relative to their specific competition (see Figure 1.)  There seems to be a bit of confusion about the scores so just think of it as a power ranking – focus on the direction the scores are moving to help determine momentum.  Of course it will take skillful analysis to put it all together.

The Broncos are in the Super Bowl and SX continues; it’s been a fantastic week.  SX predictions are up next and to quote our Hall of Fame QB, Peyton Manning: HURRY, HURRY… 

450SX

1.Villopoto (-1)
2.Barcia (-1)
3.Stewart, J (+1)
4.Dungey (+1)
5.Reed (+1)
6.Tickle (-1)
7.Roczen (+1)
8.Brayton (+1)
9.Hahn (+1)
10.Short (-1)

250SX (+/- handicap)

1.Anderson (-1)
2.Seely (+1)
3.Stewart, M (-1)
4.Webb (-1)
5.Wilson (+1)
6.Osborne (+1)
7.Hill, Justin (+1)
8.McElrath (+1)
9.Leib (-1)
10.Nelson (+1)

TRAP illustrations will be up shortly; stay tuned....

The Roost'r

Friday, January 17, 2014

2014 Supercross | Anaheim 2 Predictions



Photo: amasupercross.com
Round 2 is in the books and I don’t think we had any big surprises come out of this round.  The 250 class is dynamite so far while the 450 class feels a little more familiar.  Make no mistake, the SX season is exploding and should keep us on the edge of our seats all the way to Vegas.

Justin Brayton in the 450 class reminds me a little of Davi Millsaps’ early success last year – no one expected him to have such a strong start to the season.  Can Brayton have a similar run?  Jason Anderson is on a mission after a 4th overall finish last year.  Seely is visibly disappointed in his performance and my CLAW scores confirm his frustrations.  Seely’s performance dropped 7% while Anderson improved his performance by 6%.  Meanwhile, Zach Osborne improved his performance by 8%; is A2 his round?

I was reviewing my CLAW scores after this past race and perhaps I should explain how to make some sense of these numbers.  I set out to measure a riders’ individual relative performance, sort of like racing against yourself.  Let’s take Broc Tickle for example.  Broc finished in the same position in both races yet I gave him a score in Phoenix of 30.514 which is a 30% improvement from his A1 score.  He didn’t improve his finish but I clearly see an improvement in his relative performance.  Think of it as a power ranking. 

I had Eli Tomac in my top 10 before I knew he’d be a scratch.  I tried waiting but the word came too late that he wouldn’t be racing.  Other than that I have no excuses.  I had 4 calls with the handicap and 1 spot call.  I can’t tell you how difficult it is to predict with even a 1 place handicap.  This time last year I had 4 spot on predictions through the first 2 rounds and so far this year I have 3.  Clearly moving in the wrong direction but I’m keeping it close.

I’m going to try something new here with something I will call “Time Warp.”  In Time Warp I’m going to measure performances against riders who are retired.  For example, this week I decided to take a look at Ricky Carmichael's performance at Phoenix back in 2006.  Running my algorithm I gave Ricky's performance a score of 30.504.  When compared to the field at Phoenix 2014, the rider who scored the closest was oddly enough Broc Tickle with a score of 30.514.  Ricky took first back in 2006 while Broc came in 8th this year.  Their performances were eerily similar in terms of effort but of course the competition and machines are drastically different.  In any event, perhaps Ricky is rubbing off on Broc.

“Some people possess talent, others are possessed by it.  When that happens, a talent becomes a curse.”  Rod Serling must have been a SX racer in another life.  We’re traveling through another dimension; next stop the Anaheim Zone.

450 SX (+/- handicap)

1.Villopoto (-1)
2.Brayton (-1)
3.Stewart, J (+1)
4.Dungey (-1)
5.Barcia (+1)
6.Reed (-1)
7.Roczen (+1)
8.Tickle (+1)
9.Hahn (+1)
10.Short (-1)

250 SX (+/- handicap)

1.Seely (-1)
2.Anderson (+1)
3.Osborne (+1)
4.Wilson (-1)
5.Webb (-1)
6.Stewart, M (+1)
7.Nelson (+1)
8.Hill, J (+1)
9.Ferris (-1)
10.McElrath (+1)

Here is the TRAP for Phoenix.  Auberson was a bit of an anomaly.  I haven't had the time to review his sequence and I suspect I'll find something to correct.  The other riders seem unaffected.  In the field of 44 riders, Villopoto was the strongest rider.  By measuring their scores from race to race I should be able to quantify the momentum behind each rider.

A lot of greasy kid stuff, if it works I could potentially create a new type of fantasy game.  Till then...

The Roostr     

Saturday, January 11, 2014

2014 Supercross | Phoenix Predictions



Photo: amasupercross.com
My Sunday morning routine this time of year; hit the snooze 3 or 4 times, turn on the coffee pot, review my SX notes from the night before then plan out my day around the NFL playoffs – some things never change, just like the unpredictability of round 1 in Supercross.



Some of you will have noticed that Ryan Dungey was conspicuously left out of my top 10 for A1.  Like last year, I felt there would be some mistakes that could affect the outcome of the season and this year I thought Dungey would have the dumpster fire.  I actually came up with 2 possibilities in this category; Dungey and Tomac but I ended up giving the nod to Dungey because I thought his new teammate might leave him with something to prove and of course he doesn’t need to prove anything.  I got the rider wrong but Anaheim 1 had another groundhog day, unfortunately James Stewart beat himself again.  I couldn’t decide in the 250 class so I left them unchanged.



The 250 class is always exciting because it’s a huge proving ground for the next generation of SX superstars.  I was not surprised at all by the results and I only missed one name in the top 10.  Anderson was my biggest surprise and what a charge at the end of the race to pull off the upset.  I believe we’ll see this set of riders dominate the West top 10 this year and the points lead may even see a few changes along the way.  Great effort by all these guys and I am so looking forward to round 2.



I like the format this year with the semi rounds making a comeback.  It does tend to take the pressure off the riders and perhaps takes a little of the fire out of the LCQ but the trade off is more racing so I guess it all evens out.  Supercross and playoff football, what a great country we live in – round 2 in the gate.



450 SX (+/- handicap)


1. STEWART, J (-1)

2. VILLOPOTO (+1)

3. BARCIA (-1)

4. DUNGEY (+1)

5. ROCZEN (+1)

6. REED (+1)

7. BRAYTON (+1)

8. TOMAC (-1)

9. WEIMER (+1)

10. TICKLE (+1)



250 SX (+/- handicap)


1. SEELY (-1)

2. OSBORNE (+1)

3. WILSON (-1)

4. ANDERSON (+1)

5. HILL, JUSTIN (-1)

6. WEBB (-1)

7. DURHAM (+1)

8. STEWART, M (+1)

9. CANADA (+1)

10. LEIB (-1)



Figure 1
Figure 1 is my Roost’r TRAP for Anaheim 1.  My scoring system placed Jake Canada with the highest score for round 1.  You’ll notice that Roczen and Anderson placed 12th and 18th respectively.  You’ll find as the season goes on that these riders will score all over the board which is exactly what I had hoped for.  My goal was to create a scoring system that is dynamic as the riders themselves and I believe I’ve done that with the Roost'r CLAW.



If you’re as obsessed with SX as I am, please don’t hesitate to leave a comment or two and let me know what you think.  The factory teams have their own evaluation methods, it’s about time the fans did as well.  Who knows, perhaps this web of scores will reveal the next biggest star; thanks for clicking in.



The Roost’r