Kurt Caselli | Ride In Peace

By now everyone has heard that the dirt bike community lost one of its favorite sons; Kurt Caselli.  I never had the privilege of seeing him race live but I have many DVDs and recorded programs that highlight the career of one of the most successful dirt bike riders of all time.  Alyssa Roenigk of ESPN wrote a revealing article that highlights the story of Kurt's journey toward a Baja 1000 victory only to unfold on that fateful day across the Baja Peninsula.  It's a brilliant narrative on perhaps one of the most sorrowful events to touch the motorcycle community in a long time.

Motorcycle racing is a dangerous sport and all these riders are beyond courageous.  They know the risks yet their hearts drive them to perform at an unbelievable level.  We, the fans, appreciate all they do but we'll never know the sacrifices they endure.  The sport lost a legend, one that will not soon be replaced.

Ride In Peace Kurt Caselli.

You can find Alyssa's article at xgames.espn.go.com/rally-moto-x/article/10078322/kurt-caselli-last-ride

The Roost'r

The Roost'r CLAW | The Evolution of Supercross

The top 10 riders accumulate the most points, get all the endorsements and attract all the attention and the rest struggle to be a player in this game.

Fans know that you can have a great ride and still lose a race.  They also know that less than your best is sometimes good enough to take the checkered flag.  A quick look at practice times will illustrate the point so the conclusion becomes obvious; it’s all about the start but some riders carry an unfair advantage – apparently this race to the holeshot is fought in the off season with the stroke of a pen.  But what if we could take the start out of the equation, neutralize track times and completely ignore the final results?  Could we still score a race?  The thought intrigued me.

Supercross is a very unique sport in that guys like you or me, well maybe not me, have the opportunity to compete against the best in the world, however given the disparity in the support received by such riders is it any surprise that the marginal rider rarely finds himself on the podium.  So I asked myself; is winning or losing really an accurate measure of a riders’ performance?  Should it be when some riders possess superior equipment, testing and training capabilities?  Track times are relevant in the context of racing but without further analysis they won't accurately measure the performance of the rider himself. Furthermore, the track conditions and personal effort put forth in a main event is far more intense than in practice and the line between control and utter chaos can be very different from rider to rider plus the level of competition at each race can differ.  All this led me to believe that we, the fans, could benefit from a holistic approach to evaluating our favorite riders.

Teams with the deepest pockets have an enormous advantage.  The training tools they have available are no match for the privateer but when it's all said and done it comes down to one thing; performance.  Inspired by sabermetrics I decided to look to statistical analysis to help answer some of these nagging questions.  If I could level the playing field and discount performance to its common equivalent, then I could create a set of statistics ideal for head-to-head evaluations, regardless of engine displacement, factory rider or privateer.  This is precisely what I set out to do when I created the Cross Linear Action Wave or what I like to refer to as the ROOST’R CLAW™ 

The Roost’r CLAW started as just an idea for bringing Supercross to my desktop and built around equal participation, sort of like the Monster Energy Cup all year.  If you’re anything like me, attending one race a year just isn’t enough and as a fan I wanted another way to participate.  The fantasy games I ran across use box scores as the basis for scoring so there was no way of getting around the redundancy so often found in racing; it became a contest of picking winners and losers against opponents with similar teams.  I concluded that scoring based on box scores will always have one inherent flaw and that is it will always be biased in favor of the point leaders and players will, to a large degree, gravitate to the point leaders.

This frustration led me to develop my own scoring system that ignores box scores, neutralizes timing, and normalizes 250 and 450 riders at the same time.  After many hours of laboring over my spreadsheets and studying video I noticed patterns emerge.  Calling on my experiences with applied mathematics and stochastic volatility I’ve come up with a system for scoring a riders’ individual performance.  I was focused on everything but the final result.  Using only the available information I first build a base sequence for each rider, then apply a set of functions to extract what I call a "TRAP" score.  From these results I'm able to create a unique set of scores that are as dynamic as the riders themselves.

I’ve decided to create my own games using these scores, one in particular I call Roost’r Trap®.  The Roost'r Trap is a unique collection of scores arranged in, well a trap.  It's a collection of scores arranged in a way perfect for head-to-head gaming, and can be wildly unpredictable.  It demands knowledge of the riders and their abilities, requires the player to understand the dynamics of a race, takes some luck too, after all this is Supercross and it has nothing to do with box scores.  

The concept refers to some complex mathematical theories but the results are actually quite simple.  I’ll continue to refine the system and at some point I hope to create an app.  Roostrtrap.com is still under construction but should be active by round 1 if you’d like to check in to see how it’s going.  I’ll have diagrams available in my next post so you can see some scoring samples.  Feel free to comment or find me on Twitter at @COdirtlife, you can also contact me directly at dirtlife.colorado@gmail.com.  Focus on the right numbers and Supercross will evolve for pros and fans alike.  The countdown has started so stay tuned... The Roost'r  

2013 Monster Energy Cup Wrap Up

photo: amasupercross.com

It was a night of brilliant pyrotechnics, recurring malfunctions, dramatic finishes and spectacular crashes.  The 2013 Monster Energy Cup was once again the fall spectacle so many of us have been waiting for.  It began with a little hiccup but ended in explosive fashion.

Who would have guessed the Joker Lane would have provided such a game changer.  I’ve been a huge fan of the Joker Lane the first time I saw it because I knew it had the potential to really mix things up and no one would have guessed the top 2 riders would miss the lane in the last lap – WOW!

I predicted the Monster Million would be safe again this year but I didn’t figure James Stewart would take the overall.  I knew he’d have a great showing but I didn’t think he’d have enough to beat Dungey and Villopoto; boy was I wrong.

I also predicted that Ryan Dungey would take the overall and had he not made that fatal mistake in the last lap in the first main he just may have proved me right.  Villopoto for the second year failed to complete all 3 of the main events and if not for the mental mistake and the subsequent crash it would have been the Stewart, Dungey, Villopoto show.

I expected more from Tomac but Roczen and Musquin certainly lived up to my expectations.  I thought Josh Grant would be more competitive, turns out Broc Tickle was the wild card.  As for the defending champ Justin Barcia, well maybe next time thanks to bike malfunctions.

The Amateur All-Starts was another highlight of the evening.  The next generation of SX rider’s looks promising and the spirit of competition in these riders is alive and well.

This was our first glimpse into the upcoming SX season and with all the moves it’s sure to be on heck of a year.  I’ll be offering my predictions again this year and soon I’ll be rolling out a project I’ve been working on, you won’t want to miss it.

January just can’t come soon enough but my time will be well spent so check back.. Thanks for clicking in.

The Roostr

2013 Monster Energy Cup | Opinion and Prediction

Photo: monsterenergycup.com

The Monster Energy Cup is the ultimate in entertainment because you almost have to toss all the usual stats out the window.  Reviewing the list of riders it’s hard for me to go against conventional wisdom.  Villopoto is clearly the favorite but winning all 3 races is no easy task.  A lot has to go right for that to happen and I think everything just fell into place for Villopoto in 2011.  Last year was the complete opposite and it seemed like everything went wrong.  It’s a brave new world in SX this season and it will be very difficult and dare I say impossible to repeat that success with this current lineup.

James Stewart has never challenged for the Cup and he’s on the list this year.  He had a rough SX season this past year but he’s had some time to get healthy and clear his mind a bit.  More seat time on the new bike will also help him compete and this track is ideally suited for a rider of his style. 

Justin Barcia was Villopoto’s closest competition last year and even though Villopoto didn’t compete in the 3rd main I think Barcia would have given him some problems.  Eli Tomac was a big surprise.  I think we all felt he’d have a good showing but to take the top spot in the last race was a statement hard to ignore.  I also can’t wait to see the other Honda riders like Seely and Nelson, they were exciting to watch last season.

Ryan Dungey was another big story last year with all his bike problems.  Assuming he’ll not have that to deal with this year I believe he’ll have a legitimate shot Saturday.  Kenny Roczen and Marvin Musquin are like the KTM accelerators in this SX fire – we know they’ll light things up and if you don’t take care of them early they’ll rage.

Dean Wilson makes his way back from injury at this year’s Monster Energy Cup.  We all remember the dominance but his competition has been competing all summer and that seat time will be hard to overcome but I expect Dean to make a statement.  His fellow Kawasaki rider Jake Weimer has been off and on this year.  I thought he had a decent showing last year at this race but he was nowhere close to competing for any prize.

It’s been tough to form an opinion and even harder to make a call on a winner.  With this field of riders I believe The Monster Million is safe again this year.  As for the overall, I believe it will go to the smartest rider.  Consistency and speed, smart decisions and an ability to avoid collisions will be the key.  It pains me to say that the start will be critical to a successful race.  It will also be a rider with factory support, of course. 

So who do I think will take the overall?  Ryan Dungey!  He was competitive in every main last year despite his bike problems.  He showed unbelievable patience and intellect to make the right decisions.  He showed poise in the face of adversity and had everything gone right I believe he would be the reigning champ this year.  I realize Villopoto wasn’t at his best and James Stewart will prove a formidable opponent but Dungey is so close to breaking through and I think the Monster Energy Cup will be a defining moment.

I'm picking Villopoto second and James Stewart third.  It was hard leaving Barcia out of the top 3 but I think James is hungry and what an event to show off his true form.  Barcia and Tomac will round out the top 5 and Roczen won't be far behind.  My long shot this year is Josh Grant.  Josh was on a roll last season and he'll be one who could knock someone out of the top 5. 

I guess only time will tell and that time is coming up.  Have a great time and thanks for checking in.

The Roost'r 

1. Ryan Dungey

2. Ryan Villopoto

3. James Stewart

4. Justin Barcia

5. Eli Tomac

2013 Monster Energy Cup: Comments

The Monster Energy Cup is perhaps the single most revealing race of the year.  This is the only opportunity we get to see a mixed field of 250 and 450 riders competing on a level playing field.  Since its inception in 2011, it has intrigued audiences around the globe by offering us a glimpse into the exciting potential of Supercross.

Reviewing the results from last year it’s easy to see that the skill level of these riders is pretty close and with only 10 lap main events the race eliminates, for the most part, the conditioning factor.  Most competitors have some sort of factory support so the machines are darn near identical in terms of power and handling.

The track itself is another major distinction with designs so unique that even your season champions are not easily favored.  The split start is really cool and sets the race up nicely.  The high bank turn didn’t really seem to have much of an impact to the TV viewer but sure looks fun from the riders’ standpoint.  My favorite section has to be the Joker Lane because it’s not about simply taking a different line.  There is strategy involved so the riders have to rely on their pit crew to guide them effectively.

Prizes of course are the main motivation for this race and the guys will most certainly ride with the usual intensity.  You also have the special attractions like the Dirt Shark Biggest Whip contest and your chance to see some extreme Freestyle Motocross riding at its finest.  Let’s not forget all the amateur riders looking to make some noise and perhaps pique the interest of some curious team managers looking for the next bright star.

All in all it should be one heck of a good time.  It looks like we have a list of riders scheduled to compete for cash and prizes.  It’ll take me a few days to go through them but I should have some predictions forthcoming.  In the mean time check out the MEC website www.monsterenergycup.com for the latest developments and great virtual track pics.  Thanks for checking in and stayed tuned, I’ve got some great ideas for this project of mine; till then….

The Roost'r

2013 Motocross: The Final Episode

Photo: allisports.com

So the 2013 motocross season is in the books and even though the championships were determined earlier at Salt Lake City it sure didn’t diminish the excitement out at Lake Elsinore.  I'd also like to congratulate Jeremy Martin for earning rookie of the year.  He's been such a competitor all year and certainly deserves the recognition; congratulations Jeremy.

We must have all guessed that the champs wouldn’t let up and they certainly didn’t as both Villopoto and Tomac finished in top form.  The Motorcycle Superstore Holeshot award went to James Stewart and most certainly the easiest prize money Stewart has ever made while sitting at home watching from his couch.  By the way, why should the 450’s earn more than the 250’s?  The challenge is the same for both classes; I’m just saying.  It should be interesting to see how Tomac and Roczen shake up the 450 class next year and after their performances this year they should be able to squeeze a couple of vets out of the top 10.

Almost all season I have had to resort to watching the replays thanks to Allisports, perhaps one day we’ll be able to catch motocross and supercross at any sports bar.  Out of the 11 rounds in which I made predictions I was 29% overall for both classes.  In the 250 class I was 28% over 11 rounds and 30% in the 450 class.  My best was 40% overall which happened twice; Washougal and Lake Elsinore.  I have a formula I use that could work great; I just need to keep working on the metric for dealing with crashes and injuries.  Then there is the lack of access for timely news and rider updates; this perhaps is my greatest handicap. 

My results for supercross are incomplete because I didn’t start to include a handicap until close to mid-season but from the looks of things I think I did much better once the handicap was implemented.

It’s been really fun making predictions and I have a few months to perfect my methods.  I’ve been working my own scoring system for over a year now and it looks I should be able to reveal some exciting news in the next few months.  Till then, have a great summer and check back often for Roost’r updates, or better yet subscribe and get updates sent directly to your email inbox.

I thought about working the Motocross of Nations but I just don’t know enough about most of the riders for it to work.  So the next contest is the Monster Energy Cup in October.  I really like this race because it brings out some unique competition and some interesting matchups.  Until then, check back, I may have some updates before then or better yet subscribe using the g+1 button.

Have a great end of summer and see you soon.

The Roost’r