2014 Supercross | NYC Predictions

Photo: Cudby (racerxonline)

It’s a narrative that never ends.  No, I’m not talking about the impending coronation of another Supercross Legend or the tight racing that is coming to a close but rather the idea that I have to re-live Super Bowl XLVIII.  Be that as it may, this week marks a milestone in the history of Supercross as the Big Apple prepares to host the fastest, and most colorful, athletes of all time.

A few of us were anticipating Ryan Villopoto to clinch his 4th [straight] title but James Stewart’s performance last week at Seattle put the kybosh on those predictions.  RV will have to keep it going for another week but then he would have done that anyway.  With 50 points up for grabs the next two rounds it’s still not a foregone conclusion but it could very well be decided this weekend.  A quick look at the points standings will reveal a few riders on the bubble so this week should be nothing short of epic.

In the 250 class we see a return to the East division in what looks to be another tight race between Martin Davalos and Justin Bogle.  I believe the momentum lies with Bogle but with Cianciarulo out and Baggett in the doldrums, Martin doesn’t have a lot to thing about other than the number 32.  This race is setting up to be an instant classic and the big spoiler could very well be Blake Baggett.

I had a bit of a milestone myself this season with 4 spot on calls in the 450 class and 2 in the 250 class (4 including 2 with the handicap.)  I don’t see much reason to pick outside my top 10 in either class this week, if I could just get the order right.  In any event, NYC or bust baby; my top 10 next – yo, Joey Bag-o-donuts, a slice ova-heuh.

1. Stewart (-1)

2. Villopoto (+1)

3. Canard (-1)

4. Dungey (+1)

5. Barcia (+1)

6. Roczen (+1)

7. Tomac (+1)

8. Hill (-1)

9. Short (+1)

10. Wey (-1)

1. Davalos (-1)

2. Bogle (+1)

3. Baggett (+1)

4. Cunningham (-1)

5. Martin, J (+1)

6. Lemoine (-1)

7. Thompson (-1)

8. Martin, A (+1)

9. Friese (+1)

10. Decotis (+1)

The Roost'r

2014 Supercross | Seattle Predictions

Photo: racerxonline.com

Last week in Houston was like watching a classic defensive struggle; not a lot of offense but you can't help but appreciate the two opposing forces.

The riders seemed to struggle with the track but it didn't seem to affect their relative performance.  There were however a couple of outliers which seems to indicate that some riders were more comfortable than others.  Ryan Dungey for example had the top score in the 450 class with a whopping 39.9% relative performance over his closest rival, James Stewart. The 250 class was tight with Jake Canada taking the top spot by a narrow margin of 4.6% (see charts below).

In terms of improvement from race to race from our top 10 this week, Mike Alessi had the greatest improvement from last week with a factor of 71.03%.  In the 250 class going back to San Diego, excluding Dean Wilson and Cooper Webb, the rider who improved the most was Malcolm Stewart with a factor of 12.99%.  I excluded Wilson and Webb because they had unusually poor performances at San Diego and subsequently showed excessive out performance.

Villopoto is on the cusp, Stewart is on the outside looking in, JGR and RCH are out of gas, Honda's are treading and the KTM's are taking on water; the 450 field is thinning out and there's not much time for anyone to change their circumstances.  The 250 class on the other hand is prime and ready to battle to the end as we head into the final stretch.

My record for this round from last year was lower with 30% from 50% with the handicap.  Plenty of room for improvement, I guess the riders weren't the only ones who struggled last week.  I'm sour on Seattle for embarrassing my Denver Broncos (yes, I said it) but I won't let that stop me from tuning in.  Supercross heads for the house of the Legion Of Boom, where green dominates on and off the field, will the Kawasaki's rule the day?  I guess we'll find out soon enough.  Seattle picks...

450 SX (+/- handicap)

1. Villopoto (-1)
2. Stewart, (+1)
3. Barcia (-1)
4. Canard (-1)
5. Dungey (+1)
6. Roczen (+1)
7. Tomac (-1)
8. Short (+1)
9. Hill (+1)
10. Peick (+1)

250 SX (+/- handicap)

1. Anderson (-1)
2. Seely (+1)
3. Hill (-1)
4. Wilson (+1)
5. Webb (+1)
6. Stewart (+1)
7. Osborne (+1)
8. McElrath (-1)
9. Nelson (+1)
10. Canada (+1)

The Roost'r

2014 Supercross | Houston Predictions

Photo: racerxonline.com

Watching James Stewart reminds me of a line by the cool cat Sylvester: they forgot to put the cat out...the cat?..I'm the cat! When we weren't looking the number Seven has suddenly become a real threat.  Of course a lot would have to go right, or really wrong, for him to leap frog into the lead but I don't think he even saw it coming.

James Stewart is putting the fear into the Villopoto camp and it's starting to show. Speaking with a buddy here at work we've come to the conclusion that RV played it safe last week or in other words he was racing not to lose.  RV will have to fight the urge to push for the lead and that's hard to do for a competitor like him.  I look for James to press his competition these last few rounds and the Monster Energy Kawasaki rider will have to play his best game of SX chess.  It was great to see Trey Canard back in action with a fifth place finish and a top 3 TRAP score (see chart below).  The AMA point leaders all had great rides but the rider with the greatest relative performance was Josh Hill.  His consistency is improving and the RCH/Soaring Eagle Suzuki team has to be pleased.  Nick Wey rounds out my top 3 with another great ride.

Photo: racerxonline.com

The 250 East is coming down to the wire and the break couldn't have come soon enough for Martin Davalos.  Justin Bogle lost a little momentum last week but make no mistake he is on a run and Mitch Peyton knows it.  Blake Baggett had an outstanding ride but the fate of the number 4 lies with the competition and no one is going to lie down and let him catch up.  Kyle Cunningham also had a great ride with the second highest TRAP score in the class (see chart below).  This is a tight race and no doubt it'll be decided in Vegas.

So we head back to join the West Coast riders who are also embroiled in their own grudge match.  Jason Anderson clearly had the momentum but Seely and Justin Hill won't make it easy for him.  As of this writing I'm not sure where Dean Wilson stands but sitting fourth in points I would have to guess that he'll be back on a 250.  I'm curious to see how Shane McElrath performs after the break.  It seemed to me that he had been building some momentum heading into the break so it will be interesting to see how he answers the call.

The Colorado Rockies have their home opener this week so it should be a sports filled weekend.  Houston predictions on deck...

450 SX (+/- handicap)

1. Stewart (-1)
2. Villopoto (-1)
3. Roczen (+1)
4. Barcia (+1)
5. Dungey (+1)
6. Tomac (-1)
7. Canard (+1)
8. Peick (+1)
9. Hill (+1)
10. Short (+1)

250 SX (+/- handicap)

1. Anderson (-1)
2. Hill (-1)
3. Seely (+1)
4. Wilson (+1)
5. Stewart (+1)
6. McElrath (+1)
7. Webb (+1)
8. Nelson (+1)
9. Leib (-1)
10. Champion (+1)

Saint Louis TRAPs coming soon.  Thanks for checking in.

The Roost'r