2013 Supercross | Phoenix | 450 SX Predictions

Last week's predictions were disappointing but who can predict the unpredictable.  I knew James was prone to injury but I didn't think it would happen in round 1.  I also felt Villopoto would take it easy on the knee but still ride a near flawless race; that didn't happen either.  As for Davi Millsaps and Trey Canard taking first and second respectively, only a crystal ball could have seen that.  It just goes to show how wildly things can change in the land of Supercross.  I was pleased however on a few close picks which would indicate I'm at least in the ball park.  I've been thumbing through a whole lot of data this week and I expect to nail a few in Phoenix.

I predict the next round to revert back to the mean.  Given the circumstances that played out in round 1, the probabilities of that happening again are quite low.  When you start to combine statistics with more usable data the probabilities start to swing your way.  Of course you can't ignore random events and that's what makes predictions such a challenge, especially in racing.  I still have my convictions but let's see how they were influenced by last weeks events.  In the words of Bugs Bunny; On with the show...

450 SUPERCROSS CLASS

1. Ryan Dungey – I thought Dungey would finish just out of the top 3 last week and he would have had Barcia kept it on two wheels.  It was clear Dungey was faster than Barcia last week but he just couldn’t find an opening to make a pass or he wasn’t willing to take a risk to gain the position.  I predict Dungey gets a better start this week and is faced with defending his position more so than challenging for position.  I see Dungey taking 1st place at Phoenix.

2. Justin Barcia - Barcia wasn't the fastest last week and a hard charging Dungey just may have forced him into a mistake.  That won’t happen this week!  This field will find it difficult to get past number 51 since he rides with great track presence.  He’s definitely fast enough to win and I believe racing from behind is an advantage for him.  Reed, Canard and Stewart may challenge Justin this week but his aggressive riding style will be too much to overcome.  Barcia will land in the number 2 spot this weekend.

3. Trey Canard – Trey’s ride last week was nothing short of amazing.  He had a goal and wanted to make sure we all knew it.  He could smell the win and perhaps the adrenaline was too much at the point of attack and caused a bobble.  Now he knows he can compete and he’ll be ready for round 2.  He’s healthy and his confidence has to be high however I don’t believe he’ll take any unnecessary risks.  Riding in front made a huge difference in his approach to the race but I don’t see that kind of start this week.  He’ll be battling Stewart and Reed all night and should be successful holding them off.  Look for Canard to pull off a 3rd place finish.

4. James Stewart - James and the whole team have to be terribly disappointed with the outcome last week.  I believe James took it easy to save the knee and salvaged some valuable points in the process.  He'll probably do the same this week which should be an advantage.  I've always felt that if he rides more like Reed or Dungey and less like James Stewart, his other skills are enough to take the checkered flag.  Of course that's not his style so he'll have to adapt which won't happen overnight.  James shows us all what a fighter he is and comes in 4th.

5. Chad Reed – Chad showed he’s back and with his top competition in question, he smells blood in the water.  I didn’t get a sense of confidence in his pre-race interview but now he has to know the title is in play.  He’s not quite at the level he should be but should challenge for a top 5 finish.  He’ll need a mistake from Stewart and Canard to make the top 3 and I don’t see that happening.  He has sponsors to answer to so he won’t push too hard so as not to jeopardize the season.  If he has a great finish this week, he’ll go for it in round 3.  This week I predict Chad to finish number 5.

6. Jake Weimer – Weimer proved he isn’t afraid to twist the throttle last week and although his lap times weren’t the best, he still managed a 5th place finish.  Weimer has been very fast at Phoenix and he’s tasted victory here before.  Weimer battled Reed all night but just couldn’t find his way around him.  Weimer will have to deal with an energized Chad Reed and this week will be no different.  Weimer will pass the checkered flag in 6th place. 

7. Davi Millsaps – I think Davi surprised himself last week as he did all of us.  I’d like to say that Davi is back and will challenge for the title but I’m just not quite there yet.  I don’t think he was lucky so kudos on a great race.  I also don’t think that ride is sustainable.  He’s never shown he is a consistent top 3 rider and one week won’t change that.  I like Davi but last week will be hard to repeat-I hope he can prove me wrong.  He won’t get the start he needs but a top 10 finish should be no problem.  The number 18 Suzuki flies in at number 7.

8. Mike Alessi – Mike’s luck will change this week; it has to.  He can compete and although he won’t make the top 5 this week, he will redeem himself.  He seems to beat himself in one way or another and you do that too often it inevitably becomes the statistic you end up facing each week.  He’ll get a great start as always and keep it on two wheels; Alessi will cross the finish line in 8th to close the evening.

9. Broc Tickle – Broc didn't ride up to his potential last week but I expect him to put that behind him this week.  He’s gotta be pumped with his new team and no one knows the Suzuki better than Ricky Carmichael.  Phoenix will be an opportunity to make up some points and a top 10 position should be a lock; Broc steals 9th this week in the Grand Canyon State.

10. Justin Brayton - Brayton had a good ride at A1 but no huge surprises.  I wasn't far off last week and given my convictions this week I see Brayton breaking into the top 10 again.  He'll battle Short all evening but ultimately I believe Brayton will be a little faster.  I see Brayton charging to a 10th place finish.

RIDER NOTES

Ryan Villopoto – This is me going way out on the limb; I don’t see Ryan lining up for the main.  We are only in round 2 and if at any time his team feels they could jeopardize the whole season they’ll proceed with caution and this includes sitting out a round.  He’ll run practice and here he’ll get an idea how the knee holds up.  He had major knee surgery and if he re-injured that knee it will take even longer to heal the second time and they won’t risk that.  You can bet they’re crunching the numbers and they shouldn’t make the same mistake the Redskins did with RG3.  Of course I could be wrong and if he does end up racing, I see him placing 3rd and everyone else moves down a spot.

Josh Grant – Josh can’t be happy with an 11th place finish and probably a bit disappointing to the team as well.  He couldn’t get past Brayton and finally dropped a spot to Windham in the final laps.  He has a better chance this week but I don’t think he’ll crack the top 10 this round.

Kevin Windham – Number 14 has lasting power because he hasn’t needed to take too many chances.  In the twilight of his career I think he’s happy just to be competitive.  He has meant so much to the sport, it’s a privilege just to see him race.  I have tremendous respect for #14 but that aside, Windham remains one of the worlds’ fastest on a Supercross track and will just miss the top 10. 

Andrew Short – Short surprised me last week with his 6th place finish.  Stewart and Villopoto are certainly faster so if those two guys are healthy Short drops to 8th.  If Barcia doesn't fall Short quickly finds himself in 9th.  This field will be incomplete without the fastest guys healthy and although both the Stewart and Villopoto camps aren’t as transparent as we’d like, Short does have a legitimate shot at a top 10 finish, I just don't see it happening this week.

I would be pleased if my top 10 actually placed in the top 10 in any order, then I would know I'm getting closer.  The 450 class is a bit easier to predict and as I continue to study each rider my success rate should improve.  Look for 250SX predictions soon; should take a bit more brain power.  Phoenix next!

AR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013 Supercross | Anaheim 1 | 250SX Results

I mentioned in my previous post that the information I used to make my top 10 picks for the 250 class was inaccurate; a rookie mistake I won't soon repeat.   I knew this could be a possibility, I just didn't set aside enough time to thoroughly research the starting lineup; I have enough information from this race to at least come up with a top 10.  I understand the 250 class is now referred to as the 250SX class so that's the term I'll use going forward.

I'm really disappointed that I wasn't able to evaluate the lineup correctly because the 250 class is by far a greater challenge to predict.  I was however pleased to see my favorite 250SX rider in the lineup but you can trust my picks will always remain objective.  Since I won't be able to analyze my picks as posted previously I'll just run down the main event results for this first round of the 2013 Supercross season.

250 SUPERCROSS CLASS

1. Eli Tomac - Eli would have been my choice for the top spot this week.  He continues to dominate in this class and he's riding with a great deal of confidence.  He will be tough to beat this year and the rest of the field will have to step up huge and early or Eli will quickly run away with the points.

2. Ken Roczen - Roczen is probably Eli's greatest competition.  He's shown he can keep pace and he's also consistent enough to keep it close but any mistake will certainly derail his chances as long as Tomac is in the lineup.

3. Cole Seely - I actually picked Seeley to place 3rd, which by the way was the only pick I got right.  Cole is in a great position and I think he will be challenging Roczen all season, which should give Tomac a bigger advantage.

4. Jason Anderson - Jason has shown some flashes of brilliance but he hasn't been very consistent.  He's part of a great team and his teammates just might be helping him improve his lap times.  It's too early to tell but a 4th place finish is a great start.

5. Malcolm Stewart - I predicted Malcolm would place 10th; not sure I would have placed him there had I been working with accurate information.  Malcolm had a difficult time last year but I think if he can ride within his abilities and not push the envelope so much, he should be able to place in the top 5 consistently this year.

6. Ryan Sipes - Ryan has been terribly inconsistent however he did show he can win a race at this level.  Now on the Rockstar Suzuki, he's got a great bike and some fast teammates to help him along.  I think Ryan will find his pace and he just may be able to run in the top 10 with some consistency.

7. Zach Osborne - Zach has been battling injuries but the Geico Honda team seems to believe he has what it takes to make a move in the class.  A top 10 finish should boost his confidence but he has some competition right on his heels.

8. Tyla Rattray - I picked Rattray to place 5th, and that was me looking at a tougher lineup than this one.  He's been on the Kawasaki for a while now and I would have predicted him a bit higher in this lineup.  This 8th place gives me pause so I'll have to reexamine his potential before my Phoenix picks.

9. Max Anstie - I would have never predicted Anstie to finish in the top 10.  At one time some felt he would be a force when he decided to give the US series a shot.  I think he's finding it much more difficult than he had imagined.  I don't believe we'll see him often in the top 10 but I think he's worth keeping an eye on.

10. Michael Leib - Leib is another one of those riders who will struggle for a top 10 finish all season long.  He can run with these guys but he'll have to find another gear if he expects to remain competitive.

RIDER NOTES

Blake Baggett - Baggett has struggled a bit on the Supercross track.  I was surprised with his 14th place finish, I believe he has enough speed to run in the top 5 but a 14th place finish does not inspire confidence.  I'm certainly not counting him out but he'll have to perform better next week or he will fall too far behind in points.

Jake Canada, Kyle Cunningham, Christian Craig - I think these guys will have a much better day next week.  All three had great showings at the 2012 Monster Energy Cup and in this lineup they have a chance to make the top 10 consistently.

Jessy Nelson - I have a feeling we may hear a lot more from Jessy Nelson.  I don't have much to go on but I can see what the Troy Lee team sees in him.  Should be interesting to see how he does in Phoenix.  I'm still not ready to pick him for the top 10 but I think he has a better chance than most.

It's Monday night so I'll have to get cracking if I'm to have my picks ready by Saturday.  Supercross season makes my winter so much more bearable-snow is covering all our trails up here in Colorado so my dirt bike and mountain bikes get little use.  Look for my Phoenix picks later in the week; round 2 is right around the corner.

AR

2013 Supercross | Anaheim 1 | 450SX results

Anaheim 1 is in the books and what a day of racing it turned out to be.  It was more exciting than I had anticipated and quite frustrating at the same time.  It appears that the lineup I used for my Lites class predictions was inaccurate and since I waited till the last minute to publish my picks, it wasn't until timing and scoring began that I discovered some of my picks were not even in the lineup.  Consequently I'm taking a mulligan this week in the Lites class but I'll have no excuse going forward.  Tonight I'd like to look at the SX class and address the Lites in a separate post.

As for the night overall, I would have never thought that Millsaps would dominate the SX class like he did and what an unbelievable comeback for Trey Canard.  Equally surprising was the performance of James Stewart and Ryan Villopoto.  The coverage I thought was much improved although I don't know if I like all the Twitter updates; keeps the audience engaged so I guess we can't complain about that.  I just love the color added by Ricky Carmichael and Jeff Emig and Ralph Shaheen held it all together as always.  Erin Bates is on her game and the trackside interviews are great.  Now let's take a look at the results.  

SUPERCROSS CLASS

1. Davi Millsaps - I had picked Davi to finish 8th and although I was way off, I did have him finish 1 place better than Canard, which is just how it played out.  Stewart and Villopoto were hobbled today but that shouldn't dimish the fact that Davi challenged for the lead and won-congratulations on a job well done.

2. Trey Canard - I picked Trey to finish 9th so a little crow in my soup this evening.  I felt he would come out with something to prove and that's exactly what he did.  He held off Barcia and Dungey for the entire race and that's no small task-welcome back.

3. Ryan Dungey - I picked Dungey to finish 4th, just in front of Reed so I'm half right.  Dungey is very strategic in his riding but sometimes strategy just isn't enough, especially when your competition places speed ahead of strategy.  If Stewart and Villopoto can't recover quickly, Dungey will be challenging Barcia for the title.

4. Chad Reed - Chad was my number 5 pick and once again I was off by 1 place.  Chad rode his own race and I don't know that he could have done much more.  I still don't believe Reed is mentally over his injuries, give him another round or two and I'm sure he'll find his pace.

5. Jake Weimer - I saw Jake taking 10th at A1 and although 5 places is a pretty wide margin, had we had a healthy field I don't think my pick would have been that far off.  He's still a top 10 rider so we'll have to wait and see what happens with Stewart and Villopoto before moving him up in the order.

6. Andrew Short - I didn't even have Short in my top 10 and it appears that he would have placed in the top 10 despite the performance of Stewart and Villopoto.  Way to prove me wrong Andrew!

7. Justin Barcia - Justin was my number 3 pick and until his mishap, he was holding that position well against a charging Dungey.  Had he kept it on two wheels, I believe he would have held the position to the checkered flag.  He wasn't close enough to put a move on Canard but certainly had the speed to hold off Dungey.

8. James Stewart - What can I say?  James was my top pick this week and I still believe he has an edge on the competition.  If the knee injury turns out to be significant, Yoshimura Suzuki has some decisions to make.  If the knee turns out to be a problem, I think James should sit out a couple of rounds because if he makes it worse, not only will he not finish out the SX season, he/they will jeopardize the outdoors too-he may want to consult with Reed about starting his own team if that happens.  If the injury is minor, rest it this week and come out swinging at Phoenix.  He salvaged some valuable points and if all's fine, he'll challenge for the title.

9. Justin Brayton - Brayton was also outside my top 10 so a 9th place finish leaves me feeling pretty good about my prediction.  I can't say right now if he'll have a top 10 finish next round, just depends on you know who.

10. Kevin Windham - K-dub was another rider outside my top 10.  Just like with Brayton, a top 10 finish will depend on circumstances beyond his control.  It's great to have him back this year and still competing.

RIDER NOTES

Ryan Villopoto - Ryan is one of the fastest guys on the track without a doubt.  If his injury turns out to be minor I still think he has a chance to win his third straight title.  The biggest question I have is how prepared is he mentally to push that knee?  It was clear that it was bothering him after his spill and I don't believe he can honestly say it isn't a factor.  I guess we'll just have to wait and see.  

Josh Grant - I picked Josh Grant to place in the top 10 and with a hobbled field, placing number 11 does not look good.  Even without Stewart and Villopoto, I don't see Josh in the top 10 after this weekend.  I think Alessi and Tickle are fast enough to squeeze Grant out of the top 10 all season.

Mike Alessi - I had Mike placing 6th and he was well on his way to a top 10 finish until misfortune plagued him once again.  He always gives himself a great chance with his starts but sometimes luck just isn't on his side.  Carmichael always says that you can't win the title in the first round but you sure can lose it.  Let's hope some good luck swings Mike's way-I'm pulling for you brother.

What a great night of racing.  I recorded all 4 hours and after all the NFL playoff games were over, I popped a bag of popcorn and sat in my recliner till 2am hoping it would never end.  Phoenix is next and I hope to post my next round of predictions in the next couple of days.  As an outsider it's tough to find accurate injury reports but I'll keep digging because I know I can do better this week.

AR 

2013 Supercross | Predictions | 250 Class

It's crunch time and I think I'm ready to make my predictions for the Lites class.  The Lites class is a bit more complicated because of the two series (West and East) and the number of riders to evaluate.  Fortunately there is some great information available to help narrow down my picks and even though I've had limited time the past couple of weeks for my research I will post my 2013 predictions just in time. 

Before I begin I just have one house keeping note.  I am using the AMA Provisional Entry List posted January 2, 2013.  This list contains 35 entries and I will base all my selections from only these 35 riders.  Now that I have that taken care of, let's get the show on the road.

Darryn Durham - Durham had one of the most consistent seasons last year and this year we get to see him bang bars with Wilson, Seely and Rattray in the West.  Should be a great race and I see Darryn pulling off an upset in round 1.  Durham will take the top spot this weekend.

Dean Wilson - Dean also had one heck of a run last year and this year should be no different.  He's healthy and backed by one of the best teams in the business.  He missed the number 1 plate last year and he'll be looking for redemption.  Dean will close the evening at number 2.

Cole Seely - This was a tough pick for me this weekend.  Seely and Roczen were very consistent last year and had similar winning percentages but ultimately I feel Seely has a slight edge on Roczen.  Seely seems really comfortable on the bike and he's also had great finishes when he gets a good start.  I think he'll get a better start this weekend as well and should take the 3rd spot on the podium.

Ken Roczen - I was very impressed with Roczen's results last year but he will have to bring his A-game if he's to keep pace with the top 3.  He and Durham had the same percentage of wins last year but I think with Dean in the mix, he won't be able to squeeze through the Kawasaki's this weekend.  Look for Roczen to finish 4th.

Blake Baggett - Baggett was all over the board last year but still had a great year.  He pulled off some unbelievable comebacks outdoors but he won't have enough track to repeat that performance on a Supercross track.  We get to see him head-to-head with Seely and Wilson this year and should make for some great racing.  I see Baggett taking 5th.

Tyla Rattray - Rattray started off great last year and had he been able to finish he would have surely placed in the top 5.  He should be healed from his injury by now and I don't believe it will slow him down.  He'll be a little rusty so I don't see him in the top 5 this round but certainly in the top 10.  I believe Tyla comes in 6th in A1 this year.

Jake Canada - Jake was probably the most consistent last year than any other rider in a field that included Durham, Baggett and Roczen-that's competition for sure.  He'll be familiar with these riders but how will he do against Wilson, Rattray and Seely?  He should be ready but a top 5 finish will escape him this round.  I predict Canada will place 7th when A1 wraps up.

Travis Baker - Travis had a rough start last year but seemed to find his pace mid way through the season.  I think he'll improve marginally this year and an 8th place finish is how his evening will end.

Martin Davalos - Martin has had some good starts but can't seem to keep pace with some of his competition.  He'll continue to struggle especially in this field.  I see Martin take 9th.

Malcolm Stewart - Malcolm has showed a lot of grit but sometimes he seems to ride outside his abilities.  He wasn't very consistent at all last year but I think he'll dial it in a littler closer this year.  I look for Malcolm to round out the top 10.

Kyle Cunningham, Christian Craig and Jessy Nelson may make a run and might be able to grind out a top 10 finish so I'll at least give them a mention.

Time and scoring has surely begun and wild card weekend is drawing me away from my computer.  These are my predictions for round 1 of the West Lites class; I'm crossing my fingers.  An update will follow shortly after the conclusion of A1 with predictions for Phoenix to come.  Supercross is here!

Alan Romero

 

2013 Supercross: Predictions | 450 Class

Anaheim 1 is just around the corner and it’s time to put our SX knowledge to the test.  There always risk in making predictions but as the old saying goes; “no guts, no glory.”  I have no magic formula for my predictions, just my observations watching hours of recordings during the off-season.  So, as an outsider looking in, here are my Anaheim 1 predictions for the 450 class.

James Stewart – I think Stewart takes his first win this weekend on the Yoshimura Suzuki.  I've always criticized Stewart for entertaining so many distractions in the past and now that he's dimmed the limelight somewhat I think he'll be more focused and faster as ever.

Ryan Villopoto – For Anaheim 1 I see Ryan on the podium but not with the main win.  He'll have to push harder with a complete field and I believe he'll be a little cautious on that injured knee.  Look for RV to take 2nd at A1 this weekend.

Justin Barcia –  Justin showed that he's here to race at the Monster Energy Cup and he's not afraid to take chances.  He's a Lites Champion and that experience will pay dividends on the big bikes.  I dig Justin's riding style, he reminds me a lot of Jason Lawrence and brings incredible excitement to the races, I'm a huge fan.  I think he'll be competing with Dungey for the 3rd spot and will ultimately take the position to the finish line.

Ryan Dungey – In this round I don't see RD finishing in the top 3, shocker I know!  Dungey has always been a very calculating rider and I think he'll have a hard time getting past the aggressive riding he's likely to see in his top competition.  He's definitely fast but not a huge risk taker, Dungey will place 4th just behind Barcia.  It's not easy announcing my favorite rider won't be on the podium this weekend, I hope he can prove me wrong.

Chad Reed – Chad will just lose out of the top 3 but certainly not for lack of effort.  Chad is a very tenacious rider but I think 20 laps at top speed will put a bit too much stress on the knee and may hold him back a bit this round.  Chad has always been such an inspiration and a consummate professional and I'd like to see him in the top 3, perhaps in the following rounds; I'll send a little mojo his way.  I look for Reed to place 5th this Saturday.

Mike Alessi – I was very impressed with Mike's efforts outdoors.  He's shown that he's still relevant despite the absence of Villopoto, Stewart and Chad Reed.  His holeshot prowess will serve him well, as always, however I don't see him in the top 5.  He's quickly earning a new following, present company included.  Alessi is my wildcard and I think he'll place 6th this weekend.

Josh Grant – Josh has struggled to find his pace lately but I think he knows how important this season is to his career and he’ll push himself hard and fight for position.  He had a strong showing at the Monster Energy Cup but unfortunately his competition is just riding a bit faster these days and I don't see him placing in the top 5.  I see Josh taking a respectable 7th to begin the 2013 SX season.

Davi Millsaps – Millsaps has always been there but a top 3 finish has eluded him for too long.  He seems to take advantage of others mistakes but he can’t rely on his competition to make mistakes if he expects to win races.  He’s a great rider but a top 10 finish is as good as it gets this round.  I see Millsaps taking 8th on Saturday.   

Trey Canard – It's been a while since we've seen Trey Canard on the race track and he'll be a little rusty this weekend.  He'll want to prove he's only down but not out and that he can still run up front with the best.  It will take a couple of rounds to find his pace so I predict he'll place 9th just behind Davi Millsaps, which would be a great showing after all the injuries.

Jake Weimer – Jake too has had a bit of a struggle on the big bike and I don't think he'll have it dialed in when Anaheim 1 rolls around.  He's been criticized for his passive aggressive riding style which I believe can be used to his advantage-float like a butterfly, sting like a bee; I'm a fan!  Weimer and Canard will battle this weekend with Weimer eventually falling to 10th when the checkered flag drops on A1.

Finally, I predict Broc Tickle, Kevin Windham, Andrew Short, Justin Brayton, Josh Hill, Antonio Balbi, Robert Kiniry, Matt Lemoine, Cole Siebler and Vince Friese to round out the top 20.

That's my top 20; will it be good enough for Vegas?  I guess we'll see on January 5th when the gate drops to start the 2013 Supercross season.

I'll tackle the Lites class in my next post, I hope I can get the East and West riders straight; that would be embarrassing.  Till then....

AR