2013 Motocross | Utah Predictions

Photo: allisports.com

"If you ain't first, you're last."  A little Ricky Bobby wisdom for those struggling to find the intensity needed to make it in Pro Motocross.

So the Roost'r was out last week but that's no excuse for missing the calls for Unadilla with a week off.  I was camping, away from all forms of civilization but motocross was always on my mind, just didn't get a chance to sit down and hammer out some pics.

Ryan Villopoto is making this look easy with his biggest competition being himself.  Costly mistakes have plagued the field but make no mistake, Villopoto is clearly the fastest and most consistent rider on the track.  In the 250 class Eli Tomac is showing signs of domination himself.  His closest competition can change from week to week but my money is on Roczen to keep it close.

Standouts this week in the 450 class were Josh Grant and Jake Weimer and Jeremy Martin and Will Hahn in the 250 class.  These guys all had great rides and are starting to show they belong in the top 10.  Doug Henry was one of my favorite riders back in the day and I remember that race where he just launched himself on the motocross track.  Great to see that he was named to the Unadilla Walk of Fame; I'm still a big fan.

Great to be back, Utah pics served up.

450 Class

1. Villopoto - 1
2. Dungey + 1
3. Barcia + 1
4. Canard + 1
5. Stewart, J + 1
6. Grant - 1
7. Weimer + 1
8. Brayton + 1
9. Short + 1
10. Nicoletti - 1

250 Class

1. Tomac - 1
2. Roczen + 1
3. Osborne - 1
4. Baggett + 1
5. Musquin + 1
6. Hahn - 1
7. Bogle - 1
8. Cunningham - 1
9. Cianciarulo - 1
10. Anderson, J + 1

Two rounds to go; what am I to do before the Monster Energy Cup?  Work on my methods of course.  Thunder on its way to Utah, enjoy Salt Lake.

The Roost'r

2013 Motocross | Millville Predictions

Photo: allisports.com

"There is nothing impossible to him who will try."  

It's been a while since we've seen Chad Reed in the top 10.  Knowing him he's not satisfied but it's progress so he has to feel good about his performance.  On the other hand, the Ryan's were slinging this weekend but only one can win the overall.  I picked James Stewart to have a strong showing and he did just that.  Just a couple of years ago James was the fastest man on the planet, not sure what happened to that guy but he's fast enough these days to keep them on their toes. While we weren't looking, a couple of veterans have started to make some noise; Andrew Short and Josh Grant.  Great rides from these two guys the last couple of races and looks like they're for real.

Photo: allisports.com

In the 250's it was the Eli Tomac show as he seemed to glide through to a 1-1 overall win at Washougal. Roczen was giving him a race early on but just didn't have the speed to keep up with speed racer. Cianciarulo had his second top 10 of the season and this time out did his rookie counterpart, Cooper Webb. A bit of a shake up this week in the 250 class as a couple of the usual suspects failed to break the top 10 like Blake Baggett although bike problems aren't typically the riders fault.

I had my best week last week calling 40% in each class, three of which were spot on in the 450 class.  High Point was my best so far in the 250 class with 4 spot calls and last week all were with a handicap.  In any event, my best week ever.   Four races left, then the Monster Energy Cup before Supercross, but I digress.  The task at hand, Spring Creek; here you go Millville!

450 Class

1. Villopoto (- 1)
2. Dungey (+ 1)
3. Stewart, J (+ 1)
4. Canard (- 1)
5. Barcia (+ 1)
6. Weimer (- 1)
7. Alessi (+ 1)
8. Grant (+ 1)
9. Brayton (+ 1)
10. Tickle (- 1)

250 Class

1. Tomac (- 1)
2. Musquin (- 1)
3. Roczen (+ 1)
4. Osborne (+ 1)
5. Baggett (+ 1)
6. Anderson, J (+ 1)
7. Cunningham (- 1)
8. Bogle (+ 1)
9. Martin, J (- 1)
10. Webb (- 1)

I'm trying not to use the handicap as a crutch but the unpredictable is, well too unpredictable.  My methods aren't working as well as I've hoped however they have helped me make 24 spot calls compared to 20 by handicap for the season, that has to say something.  Forty four and counting.

The Roost'r

2013 Motocross | Washougal Predictions

Photo: allisports.com

Better late than never as they say.  RedBud was full of surprises but who would have guessed Ryan Dungey's machine would malfunction and send his points standing plummeting. This is Villopoto's championship to lose but anything can happen, which makes this exercise so difficult.

In the 250 class we had the makings of an epic struggle between the top two guys but in the end the track monster had the last say as Eli Tomac continues to claw his way back from minor setbacks.  It's still close and 'anything can happen.'  How about Jeremy Martin, great to see him on the box.  Cooper Webb is still the rookie of the year and I expect him to steal more attention from Cianciarulo.

Another short post this week but do sweat it, the meat and potatoes are served up; here are my predictions for Washougal.

450 class

1. R. Villopoto (- 1)
2. R. Dungey (- 1)
3. J. Stewart (+ 1)
4. J. Barcia (+ 1)
5. T. Canard (+ 1)
6. M. Alessi (- 1)
7. J. Brayton (+ 1)
8. B. Tickle (- 1)
9. J. Weimer (- 1)
10. P. Nicoletti (+ 1)

250 class

1. K. Roczen (- 1)
2. E. Tomac (+ 1)
3. Z. Osborne (- 1)
4. M. Musquin (+ 1)
5. J. Anderson (- 1)
6. J. Martin (+ 1)
7. K. Cunningham (+ 1)
8. B. Baggett (+ 1)
9. C. Webb (- 1)
10. W. Hahn (+ 1)

A couple that surprise me too but hey, take a position or move aside.  Weather looks like it's going to cooperate so no great equalizer this week; here they come Washington.

The Roost'r

2013 Motocross | RedBud Predictions

Photo: MX 338 website

Ryan Dungey is stealing the momentum from Villopoto and he doesn't seem to be slowing.  It looks like it could come down to these two guys and he who makes the least mistakes will most likely 'take' the title.  James Stewart is having a lot of trouble and can't seem to shake the bad luck.  Justin Barcia is on the verge of breaking out but he'll need to disrupt the momentum of the Ryan's to do that it that's no easy task.  Trey Canard is having a great season, these teammates must be great motivation on the practice track.  As for Mike Alessi, he had a bad week last weekend but that won't last, he's been one of the most consistent riders this season. 

Eli Tomac looked great and has all the momentum heading into RedBud.  Roczen, Musquin and Baggett can stop it so look for the racing to become more intense as the season rolls on.  I've been really impressed with Zach Osborne and Jason Anderson.  These two guys appear to be just as fast as our leaders, they just need to be able to finish strong.  Cianciarulo had a great showing last weekend with a top 10 overall proving that he is the rookie to watch.  Tough luck for Will Hahn, mechanical problems won't keep him out this week.

My results stunk last weekend; who would've guessed Andrew Short and Brett Metcalfe would show up on this knarly track; I guess we know who can step up in the sand.  In the 250 class, where the heck did Alex Martin come from and Seely, he's been MIA all season.  Once again, making predictions in motocross is no easy task.  It was great to hear from Doug Henry last week, he is one of my all time favorites.  

I still have a lot of work to do to improve but I'm having a blast.  So here are this weeks pick; drum roll please.....

450 Class

1. Villopoto (- 1)
2. Dungey (+ 1)
3. Barcia (+ 1)
4. J. Stewart (+ 1)
5. Canard (- 1)
6. Rattray (- 1)
7. Alessi (- 1)
8. Tickle (+ 1)
9. Nicoletti (+ 1)
10. Weimer (- 1)

250 Class

1. Tomac (- 1)
2. Roczen (+ 1)
3. Baggett (+ 1)
4. Musquin (- 1)
5. Osborne (+ 1)
6. J. Anderson (- 1)
7. Hahn (+ 1)
8. Durham (+ 1)
9. Cunningham (+ 1)
10. J. Martin (+ 1)

So long to Moto-X 338, sounds like the riders will miss you.  Let's hope the replacement has the same impact.

Adios,
The Roost'r

2013 Motocross | Moto-X 338 Predictions

Photo: allisports.com

I'm on vacation this week so this will be short.  I just want to give kudos to Durham and Hahn for great season debuts.  I've been waiting for their return so look for them in my top 10 every week.  Adam Cianciarulo looks like he struggled with the pace but he's not the amateur star of Pro Circuit for nothing.

Sorry for the short post but I've had a hard time finding internet service here and I hope the races haven't started yet.  In any event, here are my picks for Moto X 338.

450 Class

1. R. Villopoto (- 1)
2. R. Dungey (+ 1)
3. J. Barcia (- 1)
4. J. Stewart (+ 1)
5. T. Canard (+ 1)
6. M. Alessi (+ 1)
7. J. Brayton (- 1)
8. B. Tickle (+ 1)
9. J. Weimer (- 1)
10. P. Nicoletti (- 1)

250 Class

1. E. Tomac (- 1)
2. B. Baggett (+ 1)
3. K. Roczen (- 1)
4. M. Musquin (+ 1)
5. D. Durham (- 1)
6. W. Hahn (+ 1)
7. J. Anderson (- 1)
8. Z. Osborne (+ 1)
9. K. Cunningham (- 1)
10. J. Bogle (- 1)

Ciao for now.

The Roost'r

2013 Motocross | Budds Creek Predictions

Photo: allisports.com

Your humble correspondent has reason to cheer a bit this week.  For those who have been following closely, you will have noticed that I had my best week ever.  I've employed a 1 handicap since mid-way through the Supercross season and last week I was either off by more than 1 or I nailed the call.  In the 450 class I called 30% perfectly and in the 250 class I did even better with 4 perfect calls.  It's been difficult to make exact calls so I'm stoked about the results.

This week the series head to Budds Creek, MD.  Villopoto is unstoppable and this week should look familiar.  Dungey is hanging in there far better than I had predicted and Barcia is keeping both of them honest.  Mike Alessi is proving once again that he is more comfortable outdoors and his consistency is matched only by Villopoto through the first 4 rounds.  James Stewart and Chad Reed continue to struggle while Tyla Rattray and Broc Tickle are making progress.  It seems like just a matter of time before Trey Canard breaks the top 3 but it may take a bad day by one of our leaders to make that happen.

The 250 class is a bit more in flux.  Musquin, I've felt, is growing stronger week by week and I should have given him more consideration for the top spot last week.  The race between Tomac and Roczen is like trading the USD/EUR, tight.  Zach Osborne and Blake Baggett are also riding inspired; they should be able to keep up the intensity as the series rolls on.  Justin Bogle is creeping up like a Trojan Horse while the rookie Cooper Webb continues to surprise them all.  Still too much racing to determine the clear favorite but I like Marvin Musquin's momentum going into Budds Creek.

Alright, so on with the show; behold, Budds Creek picks of the week.

450 Class

1. Ryan Villopoto (- 1)
2. Justin Barcia (- 1)
3. Ryan Dungey (+ 1)
4. James Stewart (+ 1)
5. Trey Canard (- 1)
6. Mike Alessi (+ 1)
7. Tyla Rattray (+ 1)
8. Broc Tickle (- 1)
9. Jake Weimer (- 1)
10. Josh Grant (- 1)

250 Class

1. Ken Roczen (- 1)
2. Marvin Musquin (+ 1)
3. Eli Tomac (+ 1)
4. Blake Baggett (- 1)
5. Zach Osborne (+ 1)
6. Jason Anderson (- 1)
7. Justin Bogle (+ 1)
8. Jeremy Martin (+ 1)
9. Kyle Cunningham (- 1)
10. Cooper Webb (+ 1)

Enjoy the races and see you next week.

The Roost'r

2013 Motocross | High Point Predictions

Photo: allisports.com

Sounds like everyone was racing last week on an even playing field, that is quite rare so we should feel privileged.  I dig it because it makes the racing so much tighter and we saw it play out with some new faces in the top 10.  This is a deep field, particularly in the 450 class and the rookies are mixing things up in both classes, it's fantastic.  The track looked awesome, I have a bit of an obsession with dirt and the dirt looked great.

Villopoto, blah, blah, blah, we know he's the guy to beat, Dungey stepped up big, Barcia looked great, James Stewart looks vulnerable, Alessi super consistent, Canard had a tough day and what is going on with Chad Reed?  Desalle and Strijbos have come out of nowhere and that has to be frustrating some of the guys; easy solution - Go Faster!  Sipes looked great too, Josh Grant had a good practice but that didn't translate well in the motos.

In the 250 class, only Marvin Musquin is happier than I to see him on the top podium.  Marvin seems, in my opinion, to be well suited for the outdoors, even more so than Roczen so I hope he keeps it going.  Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen if you didn't notice have each had a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd overall finishes through the first 3 rounds.  Roczen unfortunately has been moving in the wrong direction but don't be fooled, he could be as dominate as Purcell.  Baggett it seems will need some time to get up to speed; may not happen for him this year or maybe he puts in a late season charge; we've seen that before.  Jason Anderson and Zach Osborne are regulars in the top 10 and I can't see an reason they can't keep that up.

I called 2 perfectly in the 450 class and I was 30% in the 250 class.  I should be able to call at least the riders in the top 10 even if they aren't in order.  That being said, I'm going to exclude Desalle and Strijbos from my pics because I never know from week to week if they'll be racing.  Alright, so let's get down to bid'ness.

450 Class

1. Villopoto (- 1)
2. J. Stewart (- 1)
3. Barcia (+ 1)
4. Dungey (+ 1)
5. Alessi (- 1)
6. Canard (+ 1)
7. Short (- 1)
8. Rattray (- 1)
9. Reed (- 1)
10. Weimer (- 1)

250 Class

1. Tomac (- 1)
2. Roczen (+ 1)
3. Musquin (+ 1)
4. Osborne (- 1)
5. Baggett (+ 1)
6. J. Anderson (+ 1)
7. J. Martin (- 1)
8. Cunningham (- 1)
9. Bogle (+ 1)
10. Webb (+ 1)

Week 4 and the points are tight.  This could go down to the wire and we, the spectators, are the big winners.  High Point, enjoy! you lucky dogs.

The Roost'r