2014 Motocross | Hangtown

Photo: racerxonline / cudby

A friend and I were sitting at a bar in Boulder with a supreme view of the Flatirons, sipping on a couple of Moscow Mules from a copper mug while sharing our best mountain bike stories when the conversation turned to motocross.  The debate revolved around my TRAP scoring and why the leader rarely has the highest score.

Great question I told him but the answer is really quite simple, I replied.  Of course I had to answer his question with a question; is the winner always the best and fastest rider on the track?  He thought about it for a moment and answered yes, of course, he won.  Wrong!  There is only one absolute in racing; the winner of a race is always without question the first to cross the finish line.

Want proof?  Just listen to the riders themselves.  Every week they give us their secret; a good start.  So why is that?  Because they know there is a distinct advantage for running up front.  For one, first place has one race and that’s to protect his position.  Everyone else, except for last place, has 2 races; protect his position and gain a position, never mind the Roost and every other hazard that comes with running from behind.  So when you think about it you have 40 individual races going on at the same time.  Here’s the twist though, when normalized, the leader has nearly maximized his competitive advantage.  His response; whatever.

I live in Colorado but the local riders I’m sure have no idea I exist but I keep up as often as I can so you can imagine how thrilled I was to see one of our local guys score big last weekend.  Bobby Fitch has no idea who I am but he had earned the top spot on my 450 TRAP this week, easily outscoring some of the top riders in the world; kudos my man.

So now let’s take a look at Moto 2 in the 450 class.  It’s important to remember that we’re talking about relative performance, or how a rider did relative to his peers and not how he did against his peers.  At first glance you’ll see that Fitch scored highest on the grid followed by Lamay, Canard, Peick, Mikhaylov, Reed, McConahy, Tedesco, Endicott and James Stewart to round out the top 10.  When we isolate performance further we find the largest concentration of riders outside tier 3; 57.5% to be exact.  We can conclude from these numbers that Fitch, Lamay and Canard had noteworthy rides in terms of personal effort and relative performance.

Tier 1 – 5%

Tier 2 – 15%

Tier 3 – 22.5%

Tier 4 – 27.5%

Tier 5 – 5%

Tiers 6 thru 8 – 25%

The fact that most riders fall outside the top tiers is of course no revelation, some riders possess far superior equipment and resources than others but over time we should be able to determine an Equivalent Average (EqA) for each rider and if I were a team manager I would look at riders who score consistently in the higher ranges of these EqA’s and let them have a run on a factory machine.

Perhaps you’re starting to get a sense of the level of complexity that goes into building and maintaining a professional motocross team and I believe to build a solid team you need to look past lap times and box scores.  Over the next few weeks I’ll be working on an Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) for forecasting rider performance – this is a system used in baseball so it’ll be interesting to see if it can be applied to motocross.

For the casual observer most of this may sound about as fun as bamboo shoots being jammed underneath your fingernails but if you’ve ever had the desire to be part of a pro motocross team, having deeper knowledge of racing wouldn’t hurt.  There are no guarantees in racing; the best we can do is improve our chances.

Thanks for clicking in and see you in Colorado,

The Roost'r

2014 Motocross | Glen Helen 250

Photo: racerxonline (cudby)

Dissecting a race is common practice and the factory teams take it to a whole new level.  All I’ve done here is quantify what we’re seeing then illustrating those results for anyone who cares to follow.  Commentary and opinion are very entertaining and keep the sport alive but the numbers tell the story.

With my charts I can illustrate not only how well a rider did among his peers but with further analysis I can determine to what degree, among other things.  Follow along throughout the season and you’ll be able to gauge the momentum of a rider, or what I like to call relative strength – a technical indicator used to chart strength or weakness.  I assume the factory teams already do this and only out of curiosity did I decide to develop my own method of evaluation.

Let’s take a look at Moto 1 in the 250 class.  According to my calculations Jessy Nelson was my top performer followed by Kyle Peters, Dean Wilson and so on.  If I sort by CLAW score you would find another unfamiliar name in Jacob Baumert in the top 10 and Matt Bisceglia uncharacteristically in the bottom 10.  The meat of the curve begins with Christophe Pourcel and ends with Justin Starling.  You may have noticed that my scores have very little to do with the AMA Point Standings and that’s because I wanted a method of evaluating a rider rather than tallying points.

So how did I get to these results?  Well, it took a lot of hours of grinding out numbers until my results reflected what I saw.  I had to apply some advanced analytics to compensate for some of the random variables in a race and the result is what you have here.  It’s tough to watch every rider at all times during a race and this chart illustrates in one frame the performances of all 40 riders.  Over time the spreadsheets I use to figure all this out can be manipulated to evaluate multiple scenarios and should lead to some very interesting statistics.

It’s all greasy kid stuff but it’s interesting to know that there is so much more going on behind the scenes and I hope that I can bring us all just a little closer to that motocross team experience – enjoy! 

The Roost'r

2014 Supercross | Season Closer

Photo: racerxonline (cudby)

Supercross is over and what a fantastic season it was.  Not a lot of surprises in the 450 class but we did witness a bit of history.  The rookies had outstanding performances and some veterans moved in opposite directions.  The 250 class sometimes seems to take the back seat to the big bikes but I find the proving ground among the younger riders is by far more exciting to watch.

By now you’ve read all you can about the season that was so I won’t bore you with details.  I do however have a couple of observations on the season finale that I’d like to share.  First was the anticlimactic 250 shootout.  With 10 laps and 20 of the best riders you’d think you were about to witness one of the greatest spectacles in Supercross but it didn’t quite measure up.  Simply, there was too much distance between the front runners for anyone to give chase.  Not sure why, perhaps it was the track plus I think the broadcast crew could pick it up some (check out the Canadian Motocross broadcast crew, they’re awesome).  I had my brother all amped for the 250 shootout and it just kind of fizzled.  The main events on the other hand sure lived up to their billing.

The anticipation builds so much more when the series comes into Vegas without a winner so the 450’s put on the best show they could – I’d still pay to watch.  To be quite honest it’s the 250’s that stole the show, again.  I’m still not sure how I feel about no heat races in the 250 class.  Of course I know why but not sure that’s the best solution.  If I could offer one suggestion, perhaps something more like the Monster Energy Cup or Lucas Oil Motocross – have 2 “motos” for a combined score – that would really mix it up.

All in all it was another successful year for Monster Energy SX and we don’t have to wait long for the insanity to continue.  Lucas Oil Pro Motocross is on deck and for those purists out there this is where the rubber meets the road.  I love natural terrain so I’m super stoked for the outdoors.  We get one round out here in Colorado and yours truly will surely be in attendance.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this experiment as much as I have, Glen Helen is right around the corner; see you in Colorado.

The Roost'r

2014 Supercross | Vegas Finale Predictions

Photo: racerxonline (cudby)

It's L'Egregious Silo out of Southern Utah that has the guys on The Fan Morning Show here in Denver buzzing as the Broncos first round pick but the tasty morsel of sports news they're ignoring is the 4-time SX champ Ryan Villopoto.  We all know the significance by now so I won't get all schmoopy about it here but what a year it's been for Monster Energy Kawasaki.

The 450 class has been settled but the 4-time champ won't let up in the final round and the race for second place is still up for grabs.  The injury bug hit again in practice this week and our Colorado boy Eli Tomac is out with a collarbone injury.  Sounds like James Stewart will line up but not sure how strong he'll be with a bum knee.  This weekend could be a race between the KTM teammates, Ryan Dungey and Ken Roczen, for rule of the Roost, should be fun.

The 250 class is oozing with excitement and this final round should once again be a night to remember.  The West is tight with Jason Anderson heading into Vegas with the momentum.  His closest competition is Cole Seely and the Troy Lee Designs rider is going to give it his best shot – man I wish I could be there!  In the East it is Justin Bogle's title to lose.  The real race is for second place.  With Martin Davalos out and Baggett a game time decision, the privateer Vince Friese is on the verge of a podium spot and that has to have the Factory Metal Works camp pumped.

Vegas is what we wait for all year – the track, the drama but nothing more so than the 250 shootout.  Who will be the best 250 rider for 2014?  With all the injuries we'll never know but you have to be in it to win it and the best rider who I believe will emerge victorious is Jason Anderson.  He's been pounding out laps and wreaking havoc on the competition all season and if he takes the West title he'll be tough to stop in the shootout.

Prognosticating is a futile exercise in the sport of Supercross but there's nothing like sport within a sport.  Here we are, the 2014 season is coming to a close and Motocross is right around the corner.  "History is written by winners."  Ryan Villopoto is in the history books; who will join him when Supercross concludes in Vegas?  Thunder to descend in the Nevada desert; picks in the gate…

450 SX (+/- handicap)

1.       Ryan Villopoto (-1)

2.       Justin Barcia (-1)

3.       Ken Roczen (+1)

4.       Josh Hill (+1)

5.       James Stewart (+1)

6.       Ryan Dungey (+1)

7.       Trey Canard (+1)

8.       Weston Peick (-1)

9.       Andrew Short (+1)

10.   Mike Alessi (+1)

250 East SX (+/- handicap)

1.       Justin Bogle (-1)

2.       Vince Friese (-1)

3.       Jeremy Martin (+1)

4.       Kyle Cunningham (-1)

5.       Matt Bisceglia (-1)

6.       Alex Martin (+1)

7.       Matt Lemoine (+1)

8.       James Decotis (+1)

9.       Mitchell Oldenburg (+1)

10.   Gannon Audette (-1)

250 West SX (+/- handicap)

1.       Jason Anderson (-1)

2.       Cole Seely (+1)

3.       Dean Wilson (-1)

4.       Justin Hill (+1)

5.       Zach Osborne (+1)

6.       Malcolm Stewart (+1)

7.       Cooper Webb (-1)

8.       Jessy Nelson (+1)

9.       Jake Canada (+1)

10.   Shane McElrath (+1)

250 East/West Shootout (+/- handicap)

1.       J. Anderson (-1)

2.       C. Seely (-1)

3.       J. Bogle (+1)

4.       D. Wilson (-1)

5.       J. Hill (+1)

6.       J. Martin (-1)

7.       V. Friese (+1)

8.       Z. Osborne (-1)

9.       M. Stewart (+1)

10.   C. Webb (+1)

The Roost'r

2014 Supercross | NYC Predictions

Photo: Cudby (racerxonline)

It’s a narrative that never ends.  No, I’m not talking about the impending coronation of another Supercross Legend or the tight racing that is coming to a close but rather the idea that I have to re-live Super Bowl XLVIII.  Be that as it may, this week marks a milestone in the history of Supercross as the Big Apple prepares to host the fastest, and most colorful, athletes of all time.

A few of us were anticipating Ryan Villopoto to clinch his 4th [straight] title but James Stewart’s performance last week at Seattle put the kybosh on those predictions.  RV will have to keep it going for another week but then he would have done that anyway.  With 50 points up for grabs the next two rounds it’s still not a foregone conclusion but it could very well be decided this weekend.  A quick look at the points standings will reveal a few riders on the bubble so this week should be nothing short of epic.

In the 250 class we see a return to the East division in what looks to be another tight race between Martin Davalos and Justin Bogle.  I believe the momentum lies with Bogle but with Cianciarulo out and Baggett in the doldrums, Martin doesn’t have a lot to thing about other than the number 32.  This race is setting up to be an instant classic and the big spoiler could very well be Blake Baggett.

I had a bit of a milestone myself this season with 4 spot on calls in the 450 class and 2 in the 250 class (4 including 2 with the handicap.)  I don’t see much reason to pick outside my top 10 in either class this week, if I could just get the order right.  In any event, NYC or bust baby; my top 10 next – yo, Joey Bag-o-donuts, a slice ova-heuh.

1. Stewart (-1)

2. Villopoto (+1)

3. Canard (-1)

4. Dungey (+1)

5. Barcia (+1)

6. Roczen (+1)

7. Tomac (+1)

8. Hill (-1)

9. Short (+1)

10. Wey (-1)

1. Davalos (-1)

2. Bogle (+1)

3. Baggett (+1)

4. Cunningham (-1)

5. Martin, J (+1)

6. Lemoine (-1)

7. Thompson (-1)

8. Martin, A (+1)

9. Friese (+1)

10. Decotis (+1)

The Roost'r

2014 Supercross | Seattle Predictions

Photo: racerxonline.com

Last week in Houston was like watching a classic defensive struggle; not a lot of offense but you can't help but appreciate the two opposing forces.

The riders seemed to struggle with the track but it didn't seem to affect their relative performance.  There were however a couple of outliers which seems to indicate that some riders were more comfortable than others.  Ryan Dungey for example had the top score in the 450 class with a whopping 39.9% relative performance over his closest rival, James Stewart. The 250 class was tight with Jake Canada taking the top spot by a narrow margin of 4.6% (see charts below).

In terms of improvement from race to race from our top 10 this week, Mike Alessi had the greatest improvement from last week with a factor of 71.03%.  In the 250 class going back to San Diego, excluding Dean Wilson and Cooper Webb, the rider who improved the most was Malcolm Stewart with a factor of 12.99%.  I excluded Wilson and Webb because they had unusually poor performances at San Diego and subsequently showed excessive out performance.

Villopoto is on the cusp, Stewart is on the outside looking in, JGR and RCH are out of gas, Honda's are treading and the KTM's are taking on water; the 450 field is thinning out and there's not much time for anyone to change their circumstances.  The 250 class on the other hand is prime and ready to battle to the end as we head into the final stretch.

My record for this round from last year was lower with 30% from 50% with the handicap.  Plenty of room for improvement, I guess the riders weren't the only ones who struggled last week.  I'm sour on Seattle for embarrassing my Denver Broncos (yes, I said it) but I won't let that stop me from tuning in.  Supercross heads for the house of the Legion Of Boom, where green dominates on and off the field, will the Kawasaki's rule the day?  I guess we'll find out soon enough.  Seattle picks...

450 SX (+/- handicap)

1. Villopoto (-1)
2. Stewart, (+1)
3. Barcia (-1)
4. Canard (-1)
5. Dungey (+1)
6. Roczen (+1)
7. Tomac (-1)
8. Short (+1)
9. Hill (+1)
10. Peick (+1)

250 SX (+/- handicap)

1. Anderson (-1)
2. Seely (+1)
3. Hill (-1)
4. Wilson (+1)
5. Webb (+1)
6. Stewart (+1)
7. Osborne (+1)
8. McElrath (-1)
9. Nelson (+1)
10. Canada (+1)

The Roost'r

2014 Supercross | Houston Predictions

Photo: racerxonline.com

Watching James Stewart reminds me of a line by the cool cat Sylvester: they forgot to put the cat out...the cat?..I'm the cat! When we weren't looking the number Seven has suddenly become a real threat.  Of course a lot would have to go right, or really wrong, for him to leap frog into the lead but I don't think he even saw it coming.

James Stewart is putting the fear into the Villopoto camp and it's starting to show. Speaking with a buddy here at work we've come to the conclusion that RV played it safe last week or in other words he was racing not to lose.  RV will have to fight the urge to push for the lead and that's hard to do for a competitor like him.  I look for James to press his competition these last few rounds and the Monster Energy Kawasaki rider will have to play his best game of SX chess.  It was great to see Trey Canard back in action with a fifth place finish and a top 3 TRAP score (see chart below).  The AMA point leaders all had great rides but the rider with the greatest relative performance was Josh Hill.  His consistency is improving and the RCH/Soaring Eagle Suzuki team has to be pleased.  Nick Wey rounds out my top 3 with another great ride.

Photo: racerxonline.com

The 250 East is coming down to the wire and the break couldn't have come soon enough for Martin Davalos.  Justin Bogle lost a little momentum last week but make no mistake he is on a run and Mitch Peyton knows it.  Blake Baggett had an outstanding ride but the fate of the number 4 lies with the competition and no one is going to lie down and let him catch up.  Kyle Cunningham also had a great ride with the second highest TRAP score in the class (see chart below).  This is a tight race and no doubt it'll be decided in Vegas.

So we head back to join the West Coast riders who are also embroiled in their own grudge match.  Jason Anderson clearly had the momentum but Seely and Justin Hill won't make it easy for him.  As of this writing I'm not sure where Dean Wilson stands but sitting fourth in points I would have to guess that he'll be back on a 250.  I'm curious to see how Shane McElrath performs after the break.  It seemed to me that he had been building some momentum heading into the break so it will be interesting to see how he answers the call.

The Colorado Rockies have their home opener this week so it should be a sports filled weekend.  Houston predictions on deck...

450 SX (+/- handicap)

1. Stewart (-1)
2. Villopoto (-1)
3. Roczen (+1)
4. Barcia (+1)
5. Dungey (+1)
6. Tomac (-1)
7. Canard (+1)
8. Peick (+1)
9. Hill (+1)
10. Short (+1)

250 SX (+/- handicap)

1. Anderson (-1)
2. Hill (-1)
3. Seely (+1)
4. Wilson (+1)
5. Stewart (+1)
6. McElrath (+1)
7. Webb (+1)
8. Nelson (+1)
9. Leib (-1)
10. Champion (+1)

Saint Louis TRAPs coming soon.  Thanks for checking in.

The Roost'r