2013 Supercross | Oakland | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo credit: amasupercross.com

This Supercross season just keeps getting better and the news never stops.  The biggest news from A2 was the announcement by Kevin Windham that he would be retiring.  Like a general resigning to his place in the hallowed halls while his soldiers march onward-the battle will most certainly go on.  Kevin Windham has entertained us for many years and he will undoubtedly be missed.  A professional in every sense, the young guys could learn a lot from him.  It always seems a little unusual to retire during the season but in this sport any race can be your last.  Godspeed K-dub; I hope you consider something other than racing trucks or rally cars in your future.

Heat racing was awesome and the biggest surprise was Barcia and Millsaps on the gate for the LCQ.  They had no problem securing the top two spots as they battled for the second worst gate pick.  This may sound unusual but it’s great to see the 450SX class in disarray.  For a while now the class has been somewhat predictable and finally we’re treated to a spectacular season.  As for the 250 West, the top riders seem to have found their pace however the field is deep and anyone can easily find his way to the front when mistakes happen.  Easily the best season in a long time so far, I sure hope it continues.  One other observation is the focus on more of the riders back in the field.  I made a comment some time ago that the broadcast crew needed to give more attention to other riders and perhaps they read my blog because I’ve noticed a lot more attention focused on the races going on behind the leaders-bravo!

I was 20% with the Villopoto and Reed picks and came close by one position on the Dungey and Brayton pick.  Had Barcia not gone out I believe he would have taken the #2 spot.  As for the 250SX class, had it not been for the Davalos choke pick, I would have called the first 5 picks correctly so instead I’m 30% this week.  All but 2 of my 250SX picks were in the top 10 so I must be making progress.

So what’s in store for round 4?  I’ll say this much, James Stewart is certainly out of the points race, if not the season.  I mentioned before that an ACL injury will take some time to recover from and if he chooses surgery he’ll certainly miss the outdoor season as well.  With Stewart’s troubles and Windham out, some riders back in the field may have better results.  In the 250SX class, Eli Tomac is clearly the favorite for the West but anything can happen.  With such a short season, some of these guys have to be getting desperate.  Enough anecdotes, let’s get down to business.

450 SUPERCROSS CLASS

1. Ryan Villopoto – This pick is easy; Ryan is clearly the fastest guy on the track.  He doesn’t need the best starts to win and as long as he can keep the knee in check, he should be a lock for his 3rd 450 Supercross title.

2. Justin Barcia – This shouldn’t be a difficult pick but Barcia seems to find trouble on the track.  His speed is undeniable and his will is unwavering, all he needs to do is keep it on two wheels.  He’ll have a better race this week and no one can touch him when he’s on, except maybe Villopoto.

3. Trey Canard – The comeback story of the season continues.  Trey is having some of his best rides in his career and nothing seems to be bothering him so far.  His confidence is high and the bike is dialed in, as long as he keeps it up he’ll be a top 5 rider all season.

4. Ryan Dungey – Ryan knows that he has to step up or any hopes of a title are gone.  He’s struggled off the gate and his riding style demands a good start.  He has the speed to hold off his competition but he needs to get up front first to be effective.  He’ll have a better start this week; he has to!

5. Chad Reed – Reed has to be one of the smartest guys on the track and he knows he’s close.  He posted some great lap times last week and even managed to get past Millsaps toward the end of the main.  As the season rolls on the field will converge and that’s when he’ll pounce.  His job is to keep it close then turn it on towards the end-when the math comes into play.

6. Davi Millsaps – Having an absolutely incredible year, Davi is finally showing us all his true potential.  His starts have helped him tremendously but his competitors are starting to gain their confidence and that will pose problems for #18.  He’ll fight for position and that will keep him in the top 10 but this week will be a challenge to hold onto the red plate.

7. Jake Weimer – Jake couldn’t seem to find his way around Reed last week and I fear he would have had the same problem with Millsaps.  His team, his bike, his fitness all seem to be there so what’s the problem?  I can’t put my finger on it but he’ll need to figure it out soon or we may see Weimer on a different team next year.

8. Andrew Short – I haven’t been giving Shorty a lot of attention but now that Stewart’s health is in question and with the retirement of Kevin Windham, Andrew is in a great position.  He won’t win the title but his consistency will earn him a solid top 10 overall.

9. Justin Brayton – We’ve all been expecting more from Justin Brayton but somehow he falls short.  I actually think he was more comfortable on the Honda.  I also believe he’s faster than his teammate-so who’s pushing who?  As before, with Stewart and Windham out of the picture, he should be able to take advantage.

10. Broc Tickle – This will be the week Broc breaks the top 10.  He’s improved his finishes in each of the last 3 races and with Carmichael in his ear; you know he’s bound to cut loose.  Everything seems to be in place so all he has to do is execute.

250 SUPERCROSS CLASS

1. Eli Tomac – Even from behind you just can’t stop the #1.  I thought Roczen could hold him off if he got out front but that didn’t happen.  This is quickly becoming a race for second place and boy what a race it is.  What should be discouraging for the other riders is that Eli has not made any real mistakes in the first 3 rounds and statistics are surely in his favor.

2. Cole Seely – I think Seely has a great day this weekend.  His fitness may have slipped toward the end of the race but until then Roczen didn’t have an answer for the #43.  He’ll need to have a better start than Roczen to pull it off and that’s just what I expect to happen this weekend.

3. Ken Roczen – Every week that goes by Ken has to be feeling some pressure and that’s when mistakes happen.  He has great times when no one is in front of him but he can’t seem to sustain that drive when the competition gets close.  Clearly practice laps don’t translate to wins.

4. Jason Anderson – Jason got a poor start last week but posted the 4th fastest lap times.  He couldn’t find his way around Christian Craig last week but with a better start he’ll have some momentum to work with.

5. Zach Osborne – With a teammate like Tomac, you’re bound to pick up some valuable tips and it’s paying off for Zach.  He’s off to a great start and I expect to see him in the top 5 pretty regularly.  This week I think Anderson gets a jump on him early and the two will bang ‘em to the checkered flag.

6. Jake Canada – Another rider having a great season.  Jake and Zach Osborne battled it out last week with Osborne holding him off to the end.  Expect more of the same this week.  I’ve been impressed with Jake’s consistency and now his times are getting better too.

7. Tyla Rattray – I couldn’t decide which Pro Circuit rider would have a better day and finally settled on Rattray.  Tyla’s been with the team a lot longer and should be more comfortable on the bike of course his season hasn’t started off that great but that can change.

8. Martin Davalos – Martin had a bad start last week but he’s proven he can compete with the fastest guys on the track.  He’ll get a better start this week and maybe even take a holeshot unfortunately he doesn’t have the speed to hold the lead yet.

9. Christian Craig – Christian got off the gate smoking.  Canada and Osborne came up from behind but he was able to hold off Rattray and Jason Anderson, which is not easy.  I think we’ll hear a lot more from Craig but for now he’s got to be happy with a top 10 finish.

10. Jessy Nelson – Another toss up for a top 10 but I can’t get over how well the #36 is riding.  He’s shown that with a good start he is capable of a top 10 and dare I say a top 5.  He’ll need to find that extra gear to keep Cunningham out of the top 10 and I think he’ll do it.  Great season so far for the rookie.

Oakland here they come!

The Roost'r

2013 Supercross | Anaheim 2 | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo credit: amasupercross.com

This just in; James Stewart admits to an ACL injury.  This should come as no surprise, his results recently told the story.  This is a huge departure from the norm and the timing is a bit odd too.  In politics there’s a saying; nothing happens in Washington by mistake.  Could there be more to the story?  Another interesting question came from this recent video; can you win a championship without winning a race?  Absolutely and we should be so lucky.  So there it is, as for his chances; I don’t see him finishing the season, but I’ve been wrong before.

There’s a theme going into round 3 this year and it’s REDEMPTION.  Villopoto has been pressing the competition but falling short in the end.  He’s been running some of the fastest laps and it’s only a matter of time before he’s on the top box.  As for Barcia, taking a spill late in the race at A1 must be hard to shake.  He was pushing hard but had some problems towards the end so he’ll be looking to make a statement.  Trey Canard and Davi Millsaps engaged in a cat and mouse game all evening; who will prevail this time?  Dungey, Reed and Weimer couldn’t advance all night; will they dig deep or maintain the status quo.  Many great reasons to expect something more from Anaheim 2 and we’ll find out how the drama unfolds on Saturday night.

The 250SX class will be an opportunity for my own redemption.  If you recall, I used the wrong lineup in my predictions which skewed my results.  Other than that I can’t say I was too surprised with the results and I think I could have called perhaps 30% or better because there were no major mishaps, just great racing.  Tomac can take control as long as he keeps Roczen behind him.  Seely can mix it up as long as he can stay consistent and there’s a whole host of riders that will keep everything else very interesting.

I’ve had game theories banging around in my head all week trying to figure out how to call this one, it’s exhausting.  Ultimately you have to go on what you know and at some point the stats will start to fall in place.  Will this be the week?  So here are my picks for Anaheim 2.

450 SUPERCROSS CLASS

1 Ryan Villopoto – RV needs a good start, not the holeshot, to run upfront.  If he’s in the top 5 after the first turn, he’ll find his way to the front and take it to the checkered flag.

2 Justin Barcia – Barcia has been fast and should have taken A1 and he looked vulnerable in Phoenix.  I don’t think he’ll dominate off the gate but he’ll keep it real close.  I think some of the guys are cautious around him to avoid contact, which plays well for #51.

3 Chad Reed – This is the week Reed makes up his mind that he’s going to make a run.  He looked great in Phoenix but Millsaps got off to a better start.  That won’t happen this week.  Now that Stewart is out of the picture and Dungey slowly falling behind, Reed will take advantage and start to accumulate points.

4 Trey Canard – Trey had a chance to finish strong last time but a little mistake and he had to settle for 2nd place.  That won’t happen this time.  He’s surprised a lot of us this year and continues where he left off.  What a great comeback so far and I don’t see him slowing down this season.

5 Ryan Dungey – Dungey has not had the start he was hoping for.  It has to be frustrating for the whole team.  He needs a good start because he can’t seem to get past the fast guys.  If he’s in front, he’ll be tough to pass.  It’s not quite time for second half adjustments but he has to know that he has to take some chances or the championship will slip away.

6 Davi Millsaps – This is me not giving Davi his props and that’s because I don’t think the competition has been showing up.  That will change and I believe this week some of the favorites step up big.  Davi has earned the red plate but it will be much more difficult to protect that points lead as the competition starts to find its pace.

7 Jake Weimer – Weimer has finished the last 2 races just one place from each other.  The competition steps up this weekend and Weimer will slip one spot from last week.  Like Dungey, he’ll have to take some chances to move up the leader board.

8 James Stewart – I actually don’t think Stewart will lineup for the main but I was wrong about Villopoto last time and I don’t want to make that mistake again.  It’s no secret that riding a dirt bike will abuse the body and your knees take a lot of that abuse.  An ACL injury will not heal without rest or surgery so the longer he’s on the bike the less likely he’ll finish out the season and he can kiss the outdoor season goodbye too.  I said it before; the Yoshimura Suzuki team has some decisions to make.

9 Justin Brayton – Brayton had a good ride the first time around and I think he’ll have a repeat performance.  He may even get past James but I just can’t rule out the possibility that Stewart soldiers on through to the checkered flag.

10 Mike Alessi – He just can’t escape bad luck and I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt that he’ll be able to shake the mental barriers that are holding him back.  He’ll have Short, Windham and Grant on his tail but he should be able to hold them off.

250 SUPERCROSS CLASS

1 Eli Tomac – A man on a mission!  In post race interviews last week you could hear the confidence in Eli’s voice.  He knows he has the speed to win and we really haven’t seen him challenged yet.  He tends to make mistakes when he pushes through the pack so a good start is essential.   

2 Ken Roczen – Is the pressure on?  He’ll have to ride the line if he expects to get by Tomac and I don’t get the feeling his confidence is high.  He doesn’t seem to have enough speed to overtake Tomac but he is fast enough to hold him off.

3 Cole Seely – I’m liking this kid more and more each week.  He’s not only riding one of the coolest looking bikes out there, he’s hanging with the leaders and seems comfortable doing it.  Still not enough to get by Roczen and Tomac but he’s on his way.

4 Martin Davalos – I wasn’t giving the Ecuadorian much thought but he’s earned a top 5 consideration.  He has the support and the bike to make a run but he’ll have to dig deep if he expects to finish strong.

5 Zach Osborne – Great ride last week and I expect more of the same this week.  He won’t catch his teammate but he’ll finish in the top 10 again.

6 Jake Canada – Tough break last week for Jake Canada.  He’s got great stats and should post some decent results this year.  He’s just 3 percentage points off the fastest riders so he has the ability to run up front.

7 Ryan Sipes – Sipes is a bit more inconsistent than Canada but they seem to ride at similar speed.  It’s a toss-up but I think Canada gets the better finish.

8 Jessy Nelson – I had a feeling about Jessy.  He had some bad luck in round 1 but man did he redeem himself in round 2.  I want to place him much higher but I just don’t have the stats to work with.  He’s building a great profile and if he has a great run this week, I’ll have to start moving him up in the order.

9 Jason Anderson – More bad luck in the Anderson camp last week but I don’t expect that to continue.  He placed 4th at A1 and in this field that’s no easy task.  He’s not the fastest and a top 10 still makes you one of the fastest guys in the world.

10 Kyle Cunningham – Eleventh at A1 and 8th at Phoenix is enough to earn a spot in the top 10.  He’s been very consistent and has proven he can bang bars with the best.  In a dominant field, consistency won’t be enough to propel you higher in the point standings. 

So I took a little different approach this week by combining the 450SX and 250SX class predictions.  What a drag some of us have to wait until Sunday to watch the races play out.  Luckily I have my SX app to keep me up to date.  Should be a great weather weekend here in the Boulder area and my mountain bike will get its first workout.  Enjoy the races!

The Roostr

2013 Supercross | Phoenix | Wrap Up

Phoenix is in the record books and should we be surprised how round 2 unfolded?  I thought we’d see less uncertainty but that’s not how it turned out.  Suffering from emotional exhaustion at the loss of my Denver Broncos to the Baltimore Ravens, round 2 was a welcome relief.  The heat races were great, the drama surrounding the top riders continued and the racing of course was unpredictable.  Our team in the booth and track-side were on however I wonder if Jeff Emig realizes he’s coming off as a bit of a bully around Ricky Carmichael.  It doesn’t seem to bother RC but as a viewer I’d like to see a little more respect around the Greatest Of All Time.

Ralph Shaheen and the boys ran a poll on Saturday just before the mains asking the audience to pick a winner in the 450SX class.  The top 4 picks were no surprise but you would have noticed how split the audience was which just goes to show how difficult it is just to pick a winner.  I’m attempting to pick the top 10 which is proving to be immensely difficult.  I’m not deterred however, my motives are more than just picking winners and losers and my goal by the end of the season is to call 80% of my predictions correct in at least one race-a tall order for sure. 

I won't bother with a play by play, you can find that anywhere so I'll keep my post brief.  I've always been very critical about how predictable Supercross, and Motocross, has been and it's about time we see them mix it up.  Doesn't make this little project of mine any easier but it sure is a whole lot more entertaining.  If I could add just one thing to the sport it would be helmet mics.  I recall during the 2012 Monster Energy Cup the broadcast team attempted to listen in on Mike Alessi's mic but you couldn't hear anything.  My suggestion would be to mic up the guys in the gate, perhaps even in the pits leading up to the gate, something similar to SoundFX on the NFL Network-now that would be awesome!   

I was 20% in the 250SX class and 10% in the 450SX class so plenty of room to improve.  Next week we’re in Anaheim again so this should be pretty interesting.  A1 was not what we expected so I have to decide if my approach should change for A2.  I’ll come to a decision this week so check back to see how I decided to approach Anaheim 2.  It looks like the lineups should be fairly predictable so I’ll adjust for some other factors and let’s see what happens.  One housekeeping note; going forward I’ll include post race analysis of the riders in the upcoming weeks predictions instead of having two separate posts-I’ve always believed less is more so I should start to practice what I preach. 

This week, in the 250SX class I called 3 of the top 5 just not in the correct order so that has to count for something.  I didn’t give Davalos a shot but after this week I better give him a second look.  I got the Tomac and Osborne picks right but left out some other guys on my cheat sheet and I was pleased to see them in the top 10.  I was pleasantly surprised to see Jessy Nelson in the top 5.  I felt he could challenge for the 10th spot so great ride for the young Honda rider.  One of my picks I’m really struggling with in the 250SX class is that of Blake Baggett; I didn’t even see him in the lineup.  I don't know what's going on there so I'll just have to make an educated guess with him-remember I'm just an outsider looking in.  Hey Adam Schefter, have any tips for me? 

I made a bold prediction with Villopoto that he wouldn’t be racing this past weekend in Phoenix.  I did however add that if he were in the lineup that he would place 3rd and I had the call correct until Canard made a mistake-c'mon man!  I think I should be more concerned with Stewart’s knee; RV looked great.  I was off by 1 with Barcia and Reed but I did get the Weimer call correct.  This 450 class is not as predictable as most would have guessed which is great-wouldn’t it be cool to see a new winner each week?  I’m in the ballpark with some of these picks but the mistakes are having significant effects on the results.

As the season rolls on, I should start to improve my results.  I attended the Phoenix SX last year and wasn't able to make it this year but I thought I'd share a photo anyway.  Picks are on the way so check back.

The Roostr

2013 Supercross | Phoenix | 250 SX Predictions

I’m super excited about this weekend because I have a chance to redeem myself for the faux pas last week.  I had to take a mulligan from my picks because I used the wrong lineup but I’m cooking with gas now.  I would have picked Tomac for first but I also picked Seely over Roczen so there’s still some work to be done.  I’m developing a game that is driving my research and after one season of this I’m taking this hobby to Vegas.  Maybe I’m getting a little ahead of myself, but you have to start somewhere.

So round 2 is less than 24 hours away and I’m ready to give this another try.  There are a lot of unfamiliar names if you’re a casual observer but let’s not underestimate the riders who are the future of this sport.  The competition is fierce and these riders were running as fast as the big bikes so look out for an action packed 250SX series; let’s get started.

250 SUPERCROSS CLASS

1. Eli Tomac – It’s going to be tough to separate Tomac from the #1 plate this year.  Roczen and Seely came close but the determination behind the Geico Honda will not be diminished.  Eli was fast last year at this track and I don’t see any reason why he couldn’t repeat those results.  He’ll get a decent start then drive to the front and take it all the way to the finish line; Tomac whips the finish line jump in 1st.

2. Cole Seely – Cole is riding fast and consistent and he showed us once again he is a legitimate top 3 rider.  The bikes look awesome and Seely is the top dog on the TLD Lucas Oil Honda team.  He’ll show us that consistency once again but this time he’ll hold off a charging Ken Roczen; look for Seely to occupy the #2 position.

3. Ken Roczen – Ken is finding his rhythm on a Supercross track and it won’t be long before we see #94 on the top podium spot.  He can run up front at any time but he’s had a tough time finding that extra gear when it counts.  He’s not afraid to take risks and if he reels you in he’ll charge until you make a mistake.  I don’t see any mishaps from Roczen but I don’t think he’ll have enough time to get around Seely; Roczen battles for a very respectable 3rd place finish.

4. Blake Baggett – Blake had a terrible finish last week but he’s still one of the fastest guys in the field.  His strength is definitely outdoors but he will find his pace indoors.  He suffered an arm injury last week and the extent of his injury is unclear.  He kept pace with the leaders but unfortunately was working from behind.  If he’s healthy, he’ll easily run in the top 5; watch for Baggett to take 4th.

5. Tyla Rattray – Tyla had a decent finish last week but he’s certainly capable of a podium spot.  He had a great race last year on this track and on the same bike.  He’s backed by perhaps the most successful team in Supercross and they will help him reach his full potential.  He can easily run in the top 3 but this weekend will only result in a 5th place finish.

6. Zach Osborne – The Englishman has made great strides since returning from MX2-GP.  He’s made an impression on the Geico Honda and that team is on a roll.  He’ll need a couple of rounds before competing for a top 3.  Zach is riding with confidence but 6th is as close as he gets in Phoenix 2013.

7. Jason Anderson – Jason and Zach battled it out last year in Phoenix but Anderson just didn’t have the speed to advance his position.  Anderson had a little redemption last week; I expect these two guys to go at it again but look for Zach to steal the position; Jason Anderson settles for the 7th spot this year.

8. Malcolm Stewart – Malcolm had some issues last year resulting in a terribly average season last year.  In round 1 he showed some promise.  He was keeping pace with the leaders and had a very respectable 5th place finish.  One race isn’t enough to prove to me that he is over his issues but he can certainly build on this.  His struggles continue but to a lesser extent; Malcolm comes in 8th this weekend.

9. Travis Baker – Travis was fairly consistent last year and I think he’s capable of a top 10 finish.  I’m not sure what happened last week but he started to fall off in lap 9 ending the night at 15th.  He’ll have a better night this weekend and I see him coming in 9th.

10. Jake Canada – Mike Alessi’s team mate had a bad night last week.  Unable to finish, he’ll need to make up some points.  He’ll battle with Anstie and maybe Jessy Nelson of the Troy Lee Designs team and should be fast enough to leave them behind.  He had a great showing at the Monster Energy Cup and after A1 he’ll come back ready to go; Jake rounds out the top 10 when Phoenix comes to a close.

Predicting the top 5 is somewhat easier than predicting 6-10 but that’s what makes this entertaining.  I’m considering shortening these posts because quite frankly it takes a lot of time and no one’s paying me for my thoughts.  I do enjoy this exercise plus it will help me develop a game I can be proud of.  I’ll take this season to test my methods but may take some time to develop it as an app.  In the mean time I hope you enjoy the commentary and analysis.

AR - The Roost'r