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| Photo credit: amasupercross.com |
This just in; James Stewart admits to an ACL injury. This should come as no surprise, his results
recently told the story. This is a huge
departure from the norm and the timing is a bit odd too. In politics there’s a saying; nothing happens
in Washington by mistake. Could there be
more to the story? Another interesting
question came from this recent video; can you win a championship without
winning a race? Absolutely and we should
be so lucky. So there it is, as for his
chances; I don’t see him finishing the season, but I’ve been wrong before.
There’s a theme going into round 3 this year and it’s
REDEMPTION. Villopoto has been pressing
the competition but falling short in the end.
He’s been running some of the fastest laps and it’s only a matter of
time before he’s on the top box. As for
Barcia, taking a spill late in the race at A1 must be hard to shake. He was pushing hard but had some problems
towards the end so he’ll be looking to make a statement. Trey Canard and Davi Millsaps engaged in a
cat and mouse game all evening; who will prevail this time? Dungey, Reed and Weimer couldn’t advance all
night; will they dig deep or maintain the status quo. Many great reasons to expect something more
from Anaheim 2 and we’ll find out how the drama unfolds on Saturday night.
The 250SX class will be an opportunity for my own
redemption. If you recall, I used the
wrong lineup in my predictions which skewed my results. Other than that I can’t say I was too
surprised with the results and I think I could have called perhaps 30% or
better because there were no major mishaps, just great racing. Tomac can take control as long as he keeps
Roczen behind him. Seely can mix it up
as long as he can stay consistent and there’s a whole host of riders that will
keep everything else very interesting.
I’ve had game theories banging around in my head all week
trying to figure out how to call this one, it’s exhausting. Ultimately you have to go on what you know
and at some point the stats will start to fall in place. Will this be the week? So here are my picks for Anaheim 2.
450 SUPERCROSS CLASS
1 Ryan Villopoto – RV needs a good start, not the
holeshot, to run upfront. If he’s in the
top 5 after the first turn, he’ll find his way to the front and take it to the
checkered flag.
2 Justin Barcia – Barcia has been fast and should have
taken A1 and he looked vulnerable in Phoenix.
I don’t think he’ll dominate off the gate but he’ll keep it real close. I think some of the guys are cautious around
him to avoid contact, which plays well for #51.
3 Chad Reed – This is the week Reed makes up his mind that
he’s going to make a run. He looked
great in Phoenix but Millsaps got off to a better start. That won’t happen this week. Now that Stewart is out of the picture and
Dungey slowly falling behind, Reed will take advantage and start to accumulate
points.
4 Trey Canard – Trey had a chance to finish strong last
time but a little mistake and he had to settle for 2nd place. That won’t happen this time. He’s surprised a lot of us this year and
continues where he left off. What a
great comeback so far and I don’t see him slowing down this season.
5 Ryan Dungey – Dungey has not had the start he was hoping
for. It has to be frustrating for the
whole team. He needs a good start
because he can’t seem to get past the fast guys. If he’s in front, he’ll be tough to pass. It’s not quite time for second half
adjustments but he has to know that he has to take some chances or the
championship will slip away.
6 Davi Millsaps – This is me not giving Davi his props and
that’s because I don’t think the competition has been showing up. That will change and I believe this week some
of the favorites step up big. Davi has
earned the red plate but it will be much more difficult to protect that points
lead as the competition starts to find its pace.
7 Jake Weimer – Weimer has finished the last 2 races just
one place from each other. The
competition steps up this weekend and Weimer will slip one spot from last week. Like Dungey, he’ll have to take some chances
to move up the leader board.
8 James Stewart – I actually don’t think Stewart will
lineup for the main but I was wrong about Villopoto last time and I don’t want
to make that mistake again. It’s no
secret that riding a dirt bike will abuse the body and your knees take a lot of
that abuse. An ACL injury will not heal
without rest or surgery so the longer he’s on the bike the less likely he’ll
finish out the season and he can kiss the outdoor season goodbye too. I said it before; the Yoshimura Suzuki team
has some decisions to make.
9 Justin Brayton – Brayton had a good ride the first time
around and I think he’ll have a repeat performance. He may even get past James but I just can’t
rule out the possibility that Stewart soldiers on through to the checkered
flag.
10 Mike Alessi – He just can’t escape bad luck and I’m
giving him the benefit of the doubt that he’ll be able to shake the mental
barriers that are holding him back. He’ll
have Short, Windham and Grant on his tail but he should be able to hold them
off.
250 SUPERCROSS CLASS
1 Eli Tomac – A man on a mission! In post race interviews last week you could
hear the confidence in Eli’s voice. He
knows he has the speed to win and we really haven’t seen him challenged yet. He tends to make mistakes when he pushes
through the pack so a good start is essential.
2 Ken Roczen – Is the pressure on? He’ll have to ride the line if he expects to
get by Tomac and I don’t get the feeling his confidence is high. He doesn’t seem to have enough speed to
overtake Tomac but he is fast enough to hold him off.
3 Cole Seely – I’m liking this kid more and more each
week. He’s not only riding one of the
coolest looking bikes out there, he’s hanging with the leaders and seems
comfortable doing it. Still not enough
to get by Roczen and Tomac but he’s on his way.
4 Martin Davalos – I wasn’t giving the Ecuadorian much
thought but he’s earned a top 5 consideration.
He has the support and the bike to make a run but he’ll have to dig deep
if he expects to finish strong.
5 Zach Osborne – Great ride last week and I expect more of
the same this week. He won’t catch his
teammate but he’ll finish in the top 10 again.
6 Jake Canada – Tough break last week for Jake
Canada. He’s got great stats and should
post some decent results this year. He’s
just 3 percentage points off the fastest riders so he has the ability to run up
front.
7 Ryan Sipes – Sipes is a bit more inconsistent than
Canada but they seem to ride at similar speed.
It’s a toss-up but I think Canada gets the better finish.
8 Jessy Nelson – I had a feeling about Jessy. He had some bad luck in round 1 but man did
he redeem himself in round 2. I want to
place him much higher but I just don’t have the stats to work with. He’s building a great profile and if he has a
great run this week, I’ll have to start moving him up in the order.
9 Jason Anderson – More bad luck in the Anderson camp last
week but I don’t expect that to continue.
He placed 4th at A1 and in this field that’s no easy task. He’s not the fastest and a top 10 still makes
you one of the fastest guys in the world.
10 Kyle Cunningham – Eleventh at A1 and 8th at Phoenix is
enough to earn a spot in the top 10. He’s
been very consistent and has proven he can bang bars with the best. In a dominant field, consistency won’t be
enough to propel you higher in the point standings.
So I took a little different approach this week by
combining the 450SX and 250SX class predictions. What a drag some of us have to wait until
Sunday to watch the races play out.
Luckily I have my SX app to keep me up to date. Should be a great weather weekend here in the
Boulder area and my mountain bike will get its first workout. Enjoy the races!
The Roostr
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