2013 Supercross | Houston | 250SX and 450SX Predictions

photo: amasupercross.com

Man, two weeks off, I sure needed that – typing can take a lot out of you.  For the boys on the track, I sure hope they got their rest and took a little time to sharpen their skills because this is the final push to the end and it starts this week in Houston.

Villopoto has taken a commanding lead but Davi lurks in the background and small mistakes by Villopoto can turn things around, again.  Both riders are riding very well and I don’t expect any huge mistakes from Ryan Villopoto so Millsaps has his work cut out for him.  We all know about Chad Reed and it doesn’t sound like he’ll make it out to Houston.  Dungey has also stepped up huge while Stewart continues to underwhelm us with his inconsistency.  I expected more from Barcia after his performance at Indy and I felt Chad Reed hung it there quite well under the circumstances.  With Reed out that leaves it open for someone else to make a move in the 450 class.

In the 250 class the story continues to be Marvin Musquin.  He is certainly carrying all the momentum heading into the final stretch and Will Hahn can only watch as his points lead continues to shrink.  It’s a numbers game here on out and these two guys need to keep it close now that Wilson is out of the picture (get well soon buddy).  Wharton is also riding well and I believe the field is thinning out even more coming into Houston so there are going to be some new names to follow.  This of course is going to make my predictions for the 250 class considerably more difficult to call.

So something noteworthy came out of Indy and continued on through to Toronto.  For those paying attention, I was 40% (50% with my handicap) in the 450 class at Indy and a great big fat goose egg in the 250 class.  However, for Toronto I was 50% without any handicap in the 450 class and 30% (50% with the handicap) in the 250 class.  This may not sound like anything to brag about until you actually try to predict the top 10 in each class.  The variance of a random variable vis-á-vis rider error is so hard to predict and that’s why I decided to include a handicap in my predictions but it’s a treat when I can call the spot position in any race.  Calling 5 out of 10 is certainly noteworthy, just ask any hedge fund manager.

It’s coming down to the wire so a little advice from Abraham Lincoln; whatever you are, be a good one.  My picks for Houston, and the winner is…..

450 class

1.Ryan Villopoto (-1)

2.Davi Millsaps (-1)

3.James Stewart (-1)

4.Ryan Dungey (+1)

5.Justin Barcia (+1)

6.Jake Weimer (-1)

7.Justin Brayton (+1)

8.Broc Tickle (-1)

9.Matt Goerke (-1)

10.Andrew Short (+1)

250 class

1.Marvin Musquin (-1)

2.Will Hahn (+1)

3.Blake Wharton (-1)

4.Jeremy Martin (-1)

5.Vince Friese (+1)

6.Cole Thompson (-1)

7.Gavin Faith (-1)

8.A.J. Catanzaro (-1)

9.Peter Larsen (-1)

10.Lance Vincent (-1)

It was opening day today at Coors Field and the Rockies handed it to the Padres, I sure hope I can match that performance this week by making some calls.  Enjoy the races, I wish I was there.  Houston; enjoy!

The Roost’r