2013 Motocross | Hangtown Predictions

Photo: Carl Stone / Racer X Online

Natural terrain; this is where it all began.  The teams have all been testing their outdoor setups, the riders have been conditioning for the long 30 minute motos, the tracks have all been groomed and the fans are just winding down from a monumental Supercross season.  This is it; 2013 Lucas Oil Motocross.

I'm extremely excited about this season because we might just have all the best riders on the track in the 450 class.  No more excuses!  If James Stewart and Ryan Villopoto stay healthy this year will set the standard.  The usual suspects will no doubt occupy the top 10 but that still doesn't make predictions any easier.  Stop the presses!  Yes, it's true, J. Law will be returning to the series and personally I can't wait to see what he brings.  He's always been one of my favorite riders, despite his off track problems.  Everyone deserves a second chance so Jason Lawrence make it count.

In the 250 class we have a lot of new comers so this class will be difficult to predict as always.  Looks like Tomac will be back on the 250's and he's my pick to win it all.  The defending champ Blake Baggett will most certainly challenge if he's healthy.  The boys of KTM will battle it out for king of the KTM roost and my edge has to go to Musquin.

My Supercross spreadsheets won't help me much this summer so I'll have to rely mostly on past observations.  Last minute team changes and scratches are part of the game but that won't stop me from drawing my line in the sand every week.  My favorite season for dirt bikes starts today with my top 10's; start your engines.

450 Class

1. Ryan Villopoto (- 1)
2. James Stewart (+ 1)
3. Ryan Dungey (+ 1)
4. Mike Alessi (- 1)
5. Justin Barcia (+ 1)
6. Jake Weimer (- 1)
7. Justin Brayton (- 1)
8. Andrew Short (+ 1)
9. Trey Canard (+ 1)
10. Tyla Rattray (- 1)

250 Class

1. Eli Tomac (- 1)
2. Blake Baggett (+ 1)
3. Ken Roczen (- 1)
4. Marvin Musquin (+ 1)
5. Martin Davalos (+ 1)
6. Cole Seely (- 1)
7. Blake Wharton (+ 1)
8. Zach Osborne (- 1)
9. Jake Canada (+ 1)
10. Darryn Durham (+ 1)

With 40 riders to choose from in each class, picking the top 10 from a very talented field is going to be an enormous task.  For all you fantasy players, let me leave you with some advice.  "Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."  Here they come Hangtown, you lucky devils.

The Roost'r

2013 Supercross | Wrap Up

Photo: supercrossonline.com

Ryan Villopoto would not allow the 250 class to steal the show so he went out there and dominated like a champion should.  I had predicted that he would take it easy, let the other guys have their day and start preparing for outdoors but boy was I wrong.  He left Vegas with his 10th win and no one could stop him.  Great job RV, I can't wait to see you on the long track.

Photo: amasupercross.com

The race for second always seems to fade into the background but there was no doubt 2nd overall meant something to Davi Millsaps and Ryan Dungey.  Davi rode hard but less than 100% was not going to be enough to beat the number 5 KTM rider in Vegas.  Davi owes a bit of gratitude to Villopoto for helping keep Ryan Dungey in check all season.  Davi had a fantastic season despite some injuries along the way, no one gave him a chance, present company included  Ryan Dungey had a phenomenal second half of the season and came as close as anyone can to stealing 2nd overall.

Photo: amasupercross.com

As for the 250 classes, words can't express the level of anticipation I was feeling.  I was somewhat disappointed however with the schedule and the elimination of the heat races.  As a fan I'm used to a warm up and it just didn't seem to flow well, felt like a pop quiz right after lunch.  The racing on the other hand was spectacular.  Watching Eli Tomac make his way up front was amazing, what a valiant effort, even though he came up short.  The East was just as exciting with Musquin doing the same.  I had predicted a KTM sweep but Tyler Bowers had other plans.  He was the ultimate spoiler and I suppose you could say the same for Davalos losing a spot in the West final.  These two races have got to be two of the best races in recent history, instant classics.

Photo: amasupercross.com

The shootout was anticlimactic I thought.  Certainly on its own it was a race for the ages but with such intense racing prior it didn't seem to maintain that same intensity.  Ken Roczen did an amazing job at redemption, the team has to be pleased although I'm sure they would have preferred it was wrapped up in Salt Lake City.  Will Hahn rode a very strategic race and in fact was very calculating all season.  He knew exactly what he had to do to keep himself in the hunt and he never wavered.  Blake Wharton also had a great year and team Rockstar Suzuki has to be pretty happy.  Eli Tomac gave it all he had in the final race and perhaps just didn't have enough in the tank for the shootout.  He was easily the favorite coming into this season.  It just goes to show how unpredictable Supercross can be.  Certainly Tomac must have felt like getting this evening over with and who can blame him.

KTM obviously was the team to beat this year with each rider placing in the top 3 in every class.  Geico Honda kept it close all the way to the end.  These two teams have clawed their way to become two of the premier teams in the series but you have to think that the Kawasaki and Suzuki teams will not rest. 

So how did I do with my predictions this year?  I have no point of reference but I'd have to say there is room for improvement.  I learned early on that calling the top 10 is almost impossible without a handicap but what a challenge.  Patterns emerged and for a guy who's nuts about statistical modeling, I have my homework cut out for me.

So what's next?  I'd like to continue through motocross although I may take a different approach.  With 40 riders and the absence of heat races it doesn't make sense to keep the same format.  Whatever I come up with it will have to take into account what I learned from Supercross; I'll keep you posted.  One definite highlight will be when the series comes through town, I can't wait!

So the curtain falls on the 2013 Supercross season.  I had a blast and many good things will come from this little experiment.  I've created statistical models and matrices that I can work with in the off season and with some back testing I should be more prepared for next year.  In the mean time, for all us purists, next is what we wait for all year; the outdoors.

Ciao for now - The Roost'r

2013 Supercross | Vegas Finale | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo: supercross.com

"Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war."  Get ready, the battle descends on Vegas this weekend.  By now you've seen or heard about the gross miscalculation by the Red Bull KTM rider Ken Roczen.  Equally disastrous was the mental collapse of Geico Honda's Eli Tomac.  Kenny served up the greatest gift Eli could have hoped for and all Eli could do was survive.  He did close the gap to 5 points and now we, the audience, will be treated to a glorious battle of speed, skill and frenzied emotion the likes of which we will not soon forget.

Amidst all the drama in the 250 class, yes a 450 champion was crowned.  Ryan Villopoto has joined a small yet elite list of riders to win 3 titles in a row.  Davi Millsaps gave a valiant effort but when it counted most the Rockstar Makita Suzuki rider came up short.  Ryan Dungey turned it up in the second half of the season but in the end he just wasn't able to match the intensity of those in front of him.  Both Davi and Dungey should feel great about their season, they've earned the title of top contenders next year.

Since the 450 class has been decided, how will the race for 2nd play out.  Clearly it will be Millsaps and Dungey in the ring for silver and I predict Villopoto will let them have their day.  Millsaps has been most consistent at the start and Vegas will be no different.  This weekend I see a fierce battle between the #5 and #18 with Davi ultimately pulling out the win.  In the 250 East I believe Musquin steals the title.  The 250 West will require more thought.  Musquin, Hahn and Wharton have not been off the bikes for that long so momentum may still be on the side of the KTM rider.  In the West, it's a tough call. 

I think mentally Tomac has the edge.  He undoubtedly choked last week but he was still in the race and had to overcome a tense and adverse situation.  Roczen did not have the same opportunity.  He will certainly prepare for this weekend but he has two things working against him; he's in the position of defending his lead and he has self imposed pressure to redeem himself.  If it's close early, I believe Tomac will win if he's racing from behind forcing Roczen into a mistake.  Eli is still 5 points behind so he needs a least one or two riders between them.  If they chase each other from a position of 1st and 2nd then Roczen comes out on top.  The heat races will be very important this weekend and these races could be the game changers.

So what about the 250 East/West shoot out?  The East has the edge because the ultra high emotions out of the West may rob the top 2 of their intensity.  My bold prediction for the 250SX Shootout is Marvin Musquin, Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen in that order.

This weeks predictions will be late but I didn't want to miss them either.  So here is how I think Vegas turns out...

450SX

1. Davi Millsaps (- 1)
2. Ryan Dungey (+ 1)
3. Justin Barcia (+ 1)
4. Chad Reed(- 1)
5. Trey Canard (+ 1)
6. Justin Brayton (- 1)
7. Andrew Short (- 1)
8. Broc Tickle (- 1)
9. Jake Weimer (+ 1)
10. Josh Hill (+ 1)

250SX West

1. Ken Roczen (- 1)
2. Eli Tomac (+ 1)
3. Martin Davalos (- 1)
4. Jason Anderson  (+ 1)
5. Cole Seely (+ 1)
6. Zach Osborne (+ 1)
7. Kyle Cunningham (+ 1)
8. Malcolm Stewart (- 1)
9. Joey Savatgy (+ 1)
10. Ryan Sipes (- 1)

250 SX East

1. Marvin Musquin (- 1)
2. Will Hahn (+ 1)
3. Blake Wharton (+ 1)
4. Tyler Bowers (- 1)
5. Lance Vincent (- 1)
6. Gavin Faith (- 1)
7. Cole Thompson (+ 1)
8. Vince Friese (+ 1)
9. Daniel Herrlein (+ 1)
10. A.J. Catanzaro (- 1)

There you have it, late but they're in.  It's 5:38pm MST and I don't think there have been any main events yet.  Looks like a weird schedule but who cares, this is what we've all been waiting for - start your engines.....

The Roost'r
  

2013 Supercross | SLC | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo: supercross.com

I've been waiting for a mud race all season and Seattle delivered.  Of course I have an unusual obsession with dirt and mix in some Dunlop Geomax tires and I'm in heaven.  So riders seem to struggle in the mud and some will complain but nothing beats a mud race.

Weather is always the great equalizer but that didn't seem to bother Red Bull KTM's Ken Roczen.  I predicted a KTM sweep in the 250 class last week and I'm one step closer to getting this one right.  Points are tight for both East and West KTM riders that any mistake could be the difference between 1st and 2nd although Roczen seems to have the momentum - this class will undoubtedly be settled in Vegas.  Our boy from Colorado, Eli Tomac, put on a show as always.  He has to be the most charismatic of the bunch on a motorcycle.  Sometimes it seems like his mind moves faster than his bike and inevitably finds himself on the ground but he's a proven champion and when he finds that delicate balance he's unstoppable.

In the premier class Justin Barcia may have just stepped into Kevin Windham's shoes as the best mud racer in the class.  It is his rookie year so perhaps I'm getting a little ahead of myself but at Seattle I saw a guy who is not afraid of attacking a muddy track and that can be a game changer in such a long series.  I can't say I was too surprised with the top 5 and with Stewart, Goerke and Alessi out for the remainder of the season there are a couple of spots in the top 10 for the taking; Josh Hill, you feel me?

Ryan Villopoto put on another clinic but came up a bit short in the end.  He's still a lock for his 3rd title but anything can happen.  Dungey struggled but managed to keep the points tight and Davi Millsaps had to settle for bronze.  "The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself."  Not sure how many more opportunities Davi has with such a talented field of riders, his battles may just end his war.

This week the boys make a stop in Salt Lake City.  There will be many variables to contend with in SLC, not the least of which is the unpredictable weather; should be delightful.  For my little experiment here, race day scratches are always tough to deal with but what can you do?  Next season I'll adjust for that but till then it's business as usual.

450 Class

1.Ryan Villopoto (- 1)
2.Ryan Dungey (+ 1)
3.Davi Millsaps (- 1)
4.Chad Reed (- 1)
5.Justin Barcia (+ 1)
6.Trey Canard (- 1)
7.Andrew Short (+ 1)
8.Broc Tickle (+ 1)
9.Josh Hill (+ 1)
10.Weston Peick (- 1)

250 Class

1.Eli Tomac (- 1)
2.Ken Roczen (+ 1)
3.Jason Anderson (- 1)
4.Cole Seely (+ 1)
5.Zach Osborne (+ 1)
6.Tyla Rattray (- 1)
7.Martin Davalos (+ 1)
8.Kyle Cunningham (+ 1)
9.Joey Savatgy (- 1)
10.Malcolm Stewart (+ 1)

Looks like a bright sunny weekend in store for us here in Boulder County; time to take the YZ out for some roost'r tails - woohoo!!

The Roost'r

2013 Supercross | Seattle | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo: supercross.com

"Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, to assure the survival and success of liberty." JFK  

Our thoughts and prayers are with our fellow Americans in Boston tonight.  It seems inappropriate to celebrate at this time of great sadness but for an event such as this to disrupt our way of life would hand a victory to our foes and so my Supercross experiment carries on. 

Last week in MNPLS was perhaps the most exciting 450 race this season.  I could not wipe the smile off my face as the Ryan's battled with fierce intensity.  I have to say that I have a whole new respect for Dungey after last week.  He kicked and clawed his way up front to the rousing applause of an adoring crowd.  The final laps were nail biters I almost forgot who was in 3rd.  Davi put in a great ride but you would've missed it if you tuned out at the checkered flag. 

In the 250 class the points have really tightened up.  Any mistake by Hahn could hand the title right to Musquin, who has been putting in near perfect laps week after week.  Wharton has done a fine job this season but it won't be enough to overcome Hahn or Musquin.  I'm going to go out on the limb and call for a KTM sweep in the 250 class for 2013 - maybe that's not such a leap.  

Finally, the camera work was incredible last week.  The dirt looked great and some of the close ups were awesome; great job CBS Sports.  I also wanted to note the display of sportsmanship all night, It's such a pleasure to know that these guys are in fact having the time of their lives.  I won't bore you with my record last week so in the words of "Big John" McCarthy; Let's get it on!

450SX

1.Ryan Villopoto (- 1)
2.Ryan Dungey (- 1)
3.Justin Barcia (- 1)
4.Davi Millsaps (+ 1)
5.Chad Reed (+ 1)
6.Trey Canard (- 1)
7.Andrew Short (- 1)
8.Justin Brayton (- 1)
9.Jake Weimer (- 1)
10.Phillip Nicoletti (- 1)

250SX

1.Eli Tomac (- 1)
2.Ken Roczen (+ 1)
3.Cole Seely (- 1)
4.Martin Davalos (+ 1)
5.Jason Anderson (- 1)
6.Kyle Cunningham (+ 1)
7.Malcolm Stewart (- 1)
8.Christian Craig (+ 1)
9.Jessy Nelson (- 1)
10.Tyla Rattray (+ 1)

In memory of those lost and wounded on this Patriots' Day and this week, 2013.

The Roost'r

2013 Supercross | Minneapolis | 250SX and 450SX Predictions

Photo: speedtv.com

“If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight.”  Sun Tzu would have been proud of the warrior named ‘Blake Wharton.’  Number 13 was not to be denied.  He came into Houston like an army with nothing to lose.  A quick battle grin in the air towards Musquin and Wharton was gone.  Hahn made a race of it but just couldn’t avoid the mistakes.  I still give a slight edge to Hahn for the title but what a night for Rockstar Makita and Blake Wharton – CONGRATULATIONS.

In the 450 class there’s the track, Villopoto and everyone else.  The field seems outclassed at times and Houston was another example.  Dungey has been stepping up while the rest seem to be riding uninspired.  Of course we know they’re doing the best they can, just doesn’t seem to be enough.  Canard had a great ride; he has to be happy with his performance.  Stewart, well what can I say, perhaps the outdoors is already on his mind.  As for Millsaps, I can’t explain it, the bike’s the same, the field is actually diminished somewhat so what can it be?  It has to be frustrating for the team.  Justin Barcia remains competitive but it’s clear he won’t be challenging for the title this year but he’ll be back.

Roost’r record last week: 2 spot calls in the 250 class and that was it.  In the 450 class I correctly called 1 and 2 others with the handicap.  Not as good as last week but I’ll take it.  Minneapolis is up this weekend and with the series winding down we can expect battles to rage for those on the bubble.  The best is yet to come, I just hope my best is yet to come too.  My picks for MN…

450 class

1.Ryan Villopoto (-1)

2.Ryan Dungey (-1)

3.James Stewart (+1)

4.Davi Millsaps (-1)

5.Justin Barcia (+1)

6.Trey Canard (+1)

7.Jake Weimer (-1)

8.Andrew Short (+1)

9.Matt Goerke (-1)

10. Broc Tickle (-1)

250 class

1.Marvin Musquin (-1)

2.Will Hahn (+1)

3.Blake Wharton (-1)

4.Jeremy Martin (-1)

5.Cole Thompson (-1)

6.Tyler Bowers (+1)

7.Vince Friese (+1)

8.Cole Thompson (-1)

9.Gavin Faith (+1)

10.Lance Vincent (+1)

This is the Roost'r; over and out.....

2013 Supercross | Houston | 250SX and 450SX Predictions

photo: amasupercross.com

Man, two weeks off, I sure needed that – typing can take a lot out of you.  For the boys on the track, I sure hope they got their rest and took a little time to sharpen their skills because this is the final push to the end and it starts this week in Houston.

Villopoto has taken a commanding lead but Davi lurks in the background and small mistakes by Villopoto can turn things around, again.  Both riders are riding very well and I don’t expect any huge mistakes from Ryan Villopoto so Millsaps has his work cut out for him.  We all know about Chad Reed and it doesn’t sound like he’ll make it out to Houston.  Dungey has also stepped up huge while Stewart continues to underwhelm us with his inconsistency.  I expected more from Barcia after his performance at Indy and I felt Chad Reed hung it there quite well under the circumstances.  With Reed out that leaves it open for someone else to make a move in the 450 class.

In the 250 class the story continues to be Marvin Musquin.  He is certainly carrying all the momentum heading into the final stretch and Will Hahn can only watch as his points lead continues to shrink.  It’s a numbers game here on out and these two guys need to keep it close now that Wilson is out of the picture (get well soon buddy).  Wharton is also riding well and I believe the field is thinning out even more coming into Houston so there are going to be some new names to follow.  This of course is going to make my predictions for the 250 class considerably more difficult to call.

So something noteworthy came out of Indy and continued on through to Toronto.  For those paying attention, I was 40% (50% with my handicap) in the 450 class at Indy and a great big fat goose egg in the 250 class.  However, for Toronto I was 50% without any handicap in the 450 class and 30% (50% with the handicap) in the 250 class.  This may not sound like anything to brag about until you actually try to predict the top 10 in each class.  The variance of a random variable vis-á-vis rider error is so hard to predict and that’s why I decided to include a handicap in my predictions but it’s a treat when I can call the spot position in any race.  Calling 5 out of 10 is certainly noteworthy, just ask any hedge fund manager.

It’s coming down to the wire so a little advice from Abraham Lincoln; whatever you are, be a good one.  My picks for Houston, and the winner is…..

450 class

1.Ryan Villopoto (-1)

2.Davi Millsaps (-1)

3.James Stewart (-1)

4.Ryan Dungey (+1)

5.Justin Barcia (+1)

6.Jake Weimer (-1)

7.Justin Brayton (+1)

8.Broc Tickle (-1)

9.Matt Goerke (-1)

10.Andrew Short (+1)

250 class

1.Marvin Musquin (-1)

2.Will Hahn (+1)

3.Blake Wharton (-1)

4.Jeremy Martin (-1)

5.Vince Friese (+1)

6.Cole Thompson (-1)

7.Gavin Faith (-1)

8.A.J. Catanzaro (-1)

9.Peter Larsen (-1)

10.Lance Vincent (-1)

It was opening day today at Coors Field and the Rockies handed it to the Padres, I sure hope I can match that performance this week by making some calls.  Enjoy the races, I wish I was there.  Houston; enjoy!

The Roost’r