2013 Supercross | SLC | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo: supercross.com

I've been waiting for a mud race all season and Seattle delivered.  Of course I have an unusual obsession with dirt and mix in some Dunlop Geomax tires and I'm in heaven.  So riders seem to struggle in the mud and some will complain but nothing beats a mud race.

Weather is always the great equalizer but that didn't seem to bother Red Bull KTM's Ken Roczen.  I predicted a KTM sweep in the 250 class last week and I'm one step closer to getting this one right.  Points are tight for both East and West KTM riders that any mistake could be the difference between 1st and 2nd although Roczen seems to have the momentum - this class will undoubtedly be settled in Vegas.  Our boy from Colorado, Eli Tomac, put on a show as always.  He has to be the most charismatic of the bunch on a motorcycle.  Sometimes it seems like his mind moves faster than his bike and inevitably finds himself on the ground but he's a proven champion and when he finds that delicate balance he's unstoppable.

In the premier class Justin Barcia may have just stepped into Kevin Windham's shoes as the best mud racer in the class.  It is his rookie year so perhaps I'm getting a little ahead of myself but at Seattle I saw a guy who is not afraid of attacking a muddy track and that can be a game changer in such a long series.  I can't say I was too surprised with the top 5 and with Stewart, Goerke and Alessi out for the remainder of the season there are a couple of spots in the top 10 for the taking; Josh Hill, you feel me?

Ryan Villopoto put on another clinic but came up a bit short in the end.  He's still a lock for his 3rd title but anything can happen.  Dungey struggled but managed to keep the points tight and Davi Millsaps had to settle for bronze.  "The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself."  Not sure how many more opportunities Davi has with such a talented field of riders, his battles may just end his war.

This week the boys make a stop in Salt Lake City.  There will be many variables to contend with in SLC, not the least of which is the unpredictable weather; should be delightful.  For my little experiment here, race day scratches are always tough to deal with but what can you do?  Next season I'll adjust for that but till then it's business as usual.

450 Class

1.Ryan Villopoto (- 1)
2.Ryan Dungey (+ 1)
3.Davi Millsaps (- 1)
4.Chad Reed (- 1)
5.Justin Barcia (+ 1)
6.Trey Canard (- 1)
7.Andrew Short (+ 1)
8.Broc Tickle (+ 1)
9.Josh Hill (+ 1)
10.Weston Peick (- 1)

250 Class

1.Eli Tomac (- 1)
2.Ken Roczen (+ 1)
3.Jason Anderson (- 1)
4.Cole Seely (+ 1)
5.Zach Osborne (+ 1)
6.Tyla Rattray (- 1)
7.Martin Davalos (+ 1)
8.Kyle Cunningham (+ 1)
9.Joey Savatgy (- 1)
10.Malcolm Stewart (+ 1)

Looks like a bright sunny weekend in store for us here in Boulder County; time to take the YZ out for some roost'r tails - woohoo!!

The Roost'r

2013 Supercross | Seattle | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo: supercross.com

"Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, to assure the survival and success of liberty." JFK  

Our thoughts and prayers are with our fellow Americans in Boston tonight.  It seems inappropriate to celebrate at this time of great sadness but for an event such as this to disrupt our way of life would hand a victory to our foes and so my Supercross experiment carries on. 

Last week in MNPLS was perhaps the most exciting 450 race this season.  I could not wipe the smile off my face as the Ryan's battled with fierce intensity.  I have to say that I have a whole new respect for Dungey after last week.  He kicked and clawed his way up front to the rousing applause of an adoring crowd.  The final laps were nail biters I almost forgot who was in 3rd.  Davi put in a great ride but you would've missed it if you tuned out at the checkered flag. 

In the 250 class the points have really tightened up.  Any mistake by Hahn could hand the title right to Musquin, who has been putting in near perfect laps week after week.  Wharton has done a fine job this season but it won't be enough to overcome Hahn or Musquin.  I'm going to go out on the limb and call for a KTM sweep in the 250 class for 2013 - maybe that's not such a leap.  

Finally, the camera work was incredible last week.  The dirt looked great and some of the close ups were awesome; great job CBS Sports.  I also wanted to note the display of sportsmanship all night, It's such a pleasure to know that these guys are in fact having the time of their lives.  I won't bore you with my record last week so in the words of "Big John" McCarthy; Let's get it on!

450SX

1.Ryan Villopoto (- 1)
2.Ryan Dungey (- 1)
3.Justin Barcia (- 1)
4.Davi Millsaps (+ 1)
5.Chad Reed (+ 1)
6.Trey Canard (- 1)
7.Andrew Short (- 1)
8.Justin Brayton (- 1)
9.Jake Weimer (- 1)
10.Phillip Nicoletti (- 1)

250SX

1.Eli Tomac (- 1)
2.Ken Roczen (+ 1)
3.Cole Seely (- 1)
4.Martin Davalos (+ 1)
5.Jason Anderson (- 1)
6.Kyle Cunningham (+ 1)
7.Malcolm Stewart (- 1)
8.Christian Craig (+ 1)
9.Jessy Nelson (- 1)
10.Tyla Rattray (+ 1)

In memory of those lost and wounded on this Patriots' Day and this week, 2013.

The Roost'r

2013 Supercross | Minneapolis | 250SX and 450SX Predictions

Photo: speedtv.com

“If fighting is sure to result in victory, then you must fight.”  Sun Tzu would have been proud of the warrior named ‘Blake Wharton.’  Number 13 was not to be denied.  He came into Houston like an army with nothing to lose.  A quick battle grin in the air towards Musquin and Wharton was gone.  Hahn made a race of it but just couldn’t avoid the mistakes.  I still give a slight edge to Hahn for the title but what a night for Rockstar Makita and Blake Wharton – CONGRATULATIONS.

In the 450 class there’s the track, Villopoto and everyone else.  The field seems outclassed at times and Houston was another example.  Dungey has been stepping up while the rest seem to be riding uninspired.  Of course we know they’re doing the best they can, just doesn’t seem to be enough.  Canard had a great ride; he has to be happy with his performance.  Stewart, well what can I say, perhaps the outdoors is already on his mind.  As for Millsaps, I can’t explain it, the bike’s the same, the field is actually diminished somewhat so what can it be?  It has to be frustrating for the team.  Justin Barcia remains competitive but it’s clear he won’t be challenging for the title this year but he’ll be back.

Roost’r record last week: 2 spot calls in the 250 class and that was it.  In the 450 class I correctly called 1 and 2 others with the handicap.  Not as good as last week but I’ll take it.  Minneapolis is up this weekend and with the series winding down we can expect battles to rage for those on the bubble.  The best is yet to come, I just hope my best is yet to come too.  My picks for MN…

450 class

1.Ryan Villopoto (-1)

2.Ryan Dungey (-1)

3.James Stewart (+1)

4.Davi Millsaps (-1)

5.Justin Barcia (+1)

6.Trey Canard (+1)

7.Jake Weimer (-1)

8.Andrew Short (+1)

9.Matt Goerke (-1)

10. Broc Tickle (-1)

250 class

1.Marvin Musquin (-1)

2.Will Hahn (+1)

3.Blake Wharton (-1)

4.Jeremy Martin (-1)

5.Cole Thompson (-1)

6.Tyler Bowers (+1)

7.Vince Friese (+1)

8.Cole Thompson (-1)

9.Gavin Faith (+1)

10.Lance Vincent (+1)

This is the Roost'r; over and out.....

2013 Supercross | Houston | 250SX and 450SX Predictions

photo: amasupercross.com

Man, two weeks off, I sure needed that – typing can take a lot out of you.  For the boys on the track, I sure hope they got their rest and took a little time to sharpen their skills because this is the final push to the end and it starts this week in Houston.

Villopoto has taken a commanding lead but Davi lurks in the background and small mistakes by Villopoto can turn things around, again.  Both riders are riding very well and I don’t expect any huge mistakes from Ryan Villopoto so Millsaps has his work cut out for him.  We all know about Chad Reed and it doesn’t sound like he’ll make it out to Houston.  Dungey has also stepped up huge while Stewart continues to underwhelm us with his inconsistency.  I expected more from Barcia after his performance at Indy and I felt Chad Reed hung it there quite well under the circumstances.  With Reed out that leaves it open for someone else to make a move in the 450 class.

In the 250 class the story continues to be Marvin Musquin.  He is certainly carrying all the momentum heading into the final stretch and Will Hahn can only watch as his points lead continues to shrink.  It’s a numbers game here on out and these two guys need to keep it close now that Wilson is out of the picture (get well soon buddy).  Wharton is also riding well and I believe the field is thinning out even more coming into Houston so there are going to be some new names to follow.  This of course is going to make my predictions for the 250 class considerably more difficult to call.

So something noteworthy came out of Indy and continued on through to Toronto.  For those paying attention, I was 40% (50% with my handicap) in the 450 class at Indy and a great big fat goose egg in the 250 class.  However, for Toronto I was 50% without any handicap in the 450 class and 30% (50% with the handicap) in the 250 class.  This may not sound like anything to brag about until you actually try to predict the top 10 in each class.  The variance of a random variable vis-á-vis rider error is so hard to predict and that’s why I decided to include a handicap in my predictions but it’s a treat when I can call the spot position in any race.  Calling 5 out of 10 is certainly noteworthy, just ask any hedge fund manager.

It’s coming down to the wire so a little advice from Abraham Lincoln; whatever you are, be a good one.  My picks for Houston, and the winner is…..

450 class

1.Ryan Villopoto (-1)

2.Davi Millsaps (-1)

3.James Stewart (-1)

4.Ryan Dungey (+1)

5.Justin Barcia (+1)

6.Jake Weimer (-1)

7.Justin Brayton (+1)

8.Broc Tickle (-1)

9.Matt Goerke (-1)

10.Andrew Short (+1)

250 class

1.Marvin Musquin (-1)

2.Will Hahn (+1)

3.Blake Wharton (-1)

4.Jeremy Martin (-1)

5.Vince Friese (+1)

6.Cole Thompson (-1)

7.Gavin Faith (-1)

8.A.J. Catanzaro (-1)

9.Peter Larsen (-1)

10.Lance Vincent (-1)

It was opening day today at Coors Field and the Rockies handed it to the Padres, I sure hope I can match that performance this week by making some calls.  Enjoy the races, I wish I was there.  Houston; enjoy!

The Roost’r

2013 Supercross | Toronto | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo: amasupercross.com

We all know how dangerous the sport of Supercross can be, much like putting your life savings in a Cyprus bank account.  Seriously though, none of us like to see our heroes go down and Indianapolis looks to have ended the season for one of the title favorites in the 250SX class; Dean Wilson.  Preliminary reports indicated some rather serious injuries but sounds like they’ve been revised although still significant.  Trey Canard also went down and it’s been reported that he may not make the trip to Toronto this week.  Our prayers, thoughts and hopes for a speedy recovery are with you guys.

Making Supercross predictions is like playing the lottery; your picks are made, then the anticipation followed by the agonizing disappointment as your riders, one by one, finds their way out of the race.  I just wish I had the kind of luck following Marvin Musquin at Indianapolis.  Of course winning a race takes unbelievable skill but luck doesn’t hurt unless you ask Blake Wharton.

The 450 class brought the noise too!  Stewart was well on his way to another win until a small error that cost him the lead but nothing could have prepared us for the battle of the Ryan’s.  I was just waiting for the Dungey pass that never came but it wasn’t for lack of trying.  Dungey kept it close all the way to the checkered flag but Villopoto would ultimately take the checkered flag.  Millsaps had a difficult time and made it worse in the last lap by laying it over as he watched Stewart cruise by.

The series moves to Canada this week and if this week is anything like last, expect an exciting night of racing.  I’m hoping Dungey can keep up the momentum but it will be tough if Stewart rides mistake free and Villopoto seems to step it up at exactly the right time.  As for the 250 class, Musquin is going to be hard to beat but Hahn will give it his best shot.  With Wilson out, there is room for some of the other guys to gain some more attention e.g. Peters, Martin, Bell, etc.

Napoleon Bonaparte once said “never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”  Ride smart you guys and make your own luck; Toronto, here they come.

450SX

1.Ryan Villopoto (-1)

2.James Stewart (+1)

3.Ryan Dungey (-1)

4.Davi Millsaps (+1)

5.Justin Barcia (-1)

6.Chad Reed (+1)

7.Eli Tomac (-1)

9.Andrew Short (-1)

10.Matt Goerke (+1)

250SX

1.Marvin Musquin (-1)

2.Will Hahn (+1)

3.Jeremy Martin (-1)

4.Blake Wharton (+1)

5.Vince Friese (-1)

6.Justin Hill (+1)

7.A.J. Catanzaro (+1)

8.Kyle Peters (+1)

9.Zach Bell (-1)

10.James Decotis (-1)

Check in again next week, till then….

The Roost’r

2013 Supercross | Indianapolis | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo: Frank Hoppen, supercrossonline

This is the Ides of March edition of my Supercross predictions and shall be celebrated famously with drinking and revelry as I pour a glass of St. Patrick’s delightful team green inspired suds.

Daytona is behind us and what a spectacular night of racing.  The Ricky Carmichael designed track was conceived with the riders in mind and as a spectator it seemed a bit unusual.  It didn’t appear to flow like the others and although the riders didn’t seem to mind it kept the race pace in check.  Other than that, it was quite entertaining. 

It was great to see another new winner in the 250 class.  I knew it would only be a matter of time before Marvin Musquin put together some solid laps.  He dominated Daytona and should keep his place on my leader board.  Cole Thompson I thought had a great ride as did Blake Wharton.  In the 450 class I was quite surprised by the performance of both Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen.  I thought Roczen would have the better night and it was turning out that way until Roczen began to fade just as Eli was heating up.  The usual suspects in the 450 class did not have a lot of surprises and Millsaps began to show some kinks in his armor and what happened to James Stewart?

So far my best round has been San Diego, where I was 30% overall.  This round, with my handicaps, I was 25% overall.  I have been concentrating more on overall performances rather than finishes and points standings so I’m not too concerned with my prediction results.  I started all this as a crash course in race analysis and predictions just sort of seemed like a good idea.  It sure adds a whole new perspective as a spectator and this experience has proven to be one heck of an experiment.  It’s a lot of fun for me and I hope it’s a little entertaining for my readers.

So now we’re headed to The Crossroads of America and Lucas Oil Stadium, former home of our hall of fame quarterback, Peyton Manning.  So will the Green teams rule the day?  They’ll score high this weekend although I’m only predicting one on the top box.  Grab yourself an ice cold ‘green’ one, here are my picks over this St. Patrick’s Day weekend.

450SX

1.Ryan Villopoto (-1)

2.Davi Millsaps (-1)

3.James Stewart (+1)

4.Justin Barcia (-1)

5.Ryan Dungey (+1)

6.Chad Reed (+1)

7.Trey Canard (-1)

8.Justin Brayton (+1)

9.Eli Tomac (+1)

10.Matt Goerke (+1)

250SX

1.Will Hahn (-1)

2.Dean Wilson (+1)

3.Marvin Musquin (+1)

4.Jeremy Martin (-1)

5.Blake Wharton (+1)

6.Cole Thompson (-1)

7.Justin Hill (+1)

8.Kyle Peters (-1)

9.Vince Friese (-1)

10.Gavin Faith (+1)

There they are the top ten in each class.  Monster Energy green will have some company this weekend.  Don’t forget to drink responsibly, there is a lot of riding to do this summer and you don’t want to spend that time recovering from a mistake.  Here they come Indy, enjoy!

The Roost’r