2014 Supercross | Anaheim 2 Predictions

Photo: amasupercross.com

Round 2 is in the books and I don’t think we had any big surprises come out of this round.  The 250 class is dynamite so far while the 450 class feels a little more familiar.  Make no mistake, the SX season is exploding and should keep us on the edge of our seats all the way to Vegas.

Justin Brayton in the 450 class reminds me a little of Davi Millsaps’ early success last year – no one expected him to have such a strong start to the season.  Can Brayton have a similar run?  Jason Anderson is on a mission after a 4th overall finish last year.  Seely is visibly disappointed in his performance and my CLAW scores confirm his frustrations.  Seely’s performance dropped 7% while Anderson improved his performance by 6%.  Meanwhile, Zach Osborne improved his performance by 8%; is A2 his round?

I was reviewing my CLAW scores after this past race and perhaps I should explain how to make some sense of these numbers.  I set out to measure a riders’ individual relative performance, sort of like racing against yourself.  Let’s take Broc Tickle for example.  Broc finished in the same position in both races yet I gave him a score in Phoenix of 30.514 which is a 30% improvement from his A1 score.  He didn’t improve his finish but I clearly see an improvement in his relative performance.  Think of it as a power ranking. 

I had Eli Tomac in my top 10 before I knew he’d be a scratch.  I tried waiting but the word came too late that he wouldn’t be racing.  Other than that I have no excuses.  I had 4 calls with the handicap and 1 spot call.  I can’t tell you how difficult it is to predict with even a 1 place handicap.  This time last year I had 4 spot on predictions through the first 2 rounds and so far this year I have 3.  Clearly moving in the wrong direction but I’m keeping it close.

I’m going to try something new here with something I will call “Time Warp.”  In Time Warp I’m going to measure performances against riders who are retired.  For example, this week I decided to take a look at Ricky Carmichael's performance at Phoenix back in 2006.  Running my algorithm I gave Ricky's performance a score of 30.504.  When compared to the field at Phoenix 2014, the rider who scored the closest was oddly enough Broc Tickle with a score of 30.514.  Ricky took first back in 2006 while Broc came in 8th this year.  Their performances were eerily similar in terms of effort but of course the competition and machines are drastically different.  In any event, perhaps Ricky is rubbing off on Broc.

“Some people possess talent, others are possessed by it.  When that happens, a talent becomes a curse.”  Rod Serling must have been a SX racer in another life.  We’re traveling through another dimension; next stop the Anaheim Zone.

450 SX (+/- handicap)

1.Villopoto (-1)

2.Brayton (-1)

3.Stewart, J (+1)

4.Dungey (-1)

5.Barcia (+1)

6.Reed (-1)

7.Roczen (+1)

8.Tickle (+1)

9.Hahn (+1)

10.Short (-1)

250 SX (+/- handicap)

1.Seely (-1)

2.Anderson (+1)

3.Osborne (+1)

4.Wilson (-1)

5.Webb (-1)

6.Stewart, M (+1)

7.Nelson (+1)

8.Hill, J (+1)

9.Ferris (-1)

10.McElrath (+1)

Here is the TRAP for Phoenix.  Auberson was a bit of an anomaly.  I haven't had the time to review his sequence and I suspect I'll find something to correct.  The other riders seem unaffected.  In the field of 44 riders, Villopoto was the strongest rider.  By measuring their scores from race to race I should be able to quantify the momentum behind each rider.

A lot of greasy kid stuff, if it works I could potentially create a new type of fantasy game.  Till then...

The Roostr     

2014 Supercross | Phoenix Predictions

Photo: amasupercross.com

My Sunday morning routine this time of year; hit the snooze 3 or 4 times, turn on the coffee pot, review my SX notes from the night before then plan out my day around the NFL playoffs – some things never change, just like the unpredictability of round 1 in Supercross.

Some of you will have noticed that Ryan Dungey was conspicuously left out of my top 10 for A1.  Like last year, I felt there would be some mistakes that could affect the outcome of the season and this year I thought Dungey would have the dumpster fire.  I actually came up with 2 possibilities in this category; Dungey and Tomac but I ended up giving the nod to Dungey because I thought his new teammate might leave him with something to prove and of course he doesn’t need to prove anything.  I got the rider wrong but Anaheim 1 had another groundhog day, unfortunately James Stewart beat himself again.  I couldn’t decide in the 250 class so I left them unchanged.

The 250 class is always exciting because it’s a huge proving ground for the next generation of SX superstars.  I was not surprised at all by the results and I only missed one name in the top 10.  Anderson was my biggest surprise and what a charge at the end of the race to pull off the upset.  I believe we’ll see this set of riders dominate the West top 10 this year and the points lead may even see a few changes along the way.  Great effort by all these guys and I am so looking forward to round 2.

I like the format this year with the semi rounds making a comeback.  It does tend to take the pressure off the riders and perhaps takes a little of the fire out of the LCQ but the trade off is more racing so I guess it all evens out.  Supercross and playoff football, what a great country we live in – round 2 in the gate.

450 SX (+/- handicap)

1. STEWART, J (-1)

2. VILLOPOTO (+1)

3. BARCIA (-1)

4. DUNGEY (+1)

5. ROCZEN (+1)

6. REED (+1)

7. BRAYTON (+1)

8. TOMAC (-1)

9. WEIMER (+1)

10. TICKLE (+1)

250 SX (+/- handicap)

1. SEELY (-1)

2. OSBORNE (+1)

3. WILSON (-1)

4. ANDERSON (+1)

5. HILL, JUSTIN (-1)

6. WEBB (-1)

7. DURHAM (+1)

8. STEWART, M (+1)

9. CANADA (+1)

10. LEIB (-1)

Figure 1

Figure 1 is my Roost’r TRAP for Anaheim 1.  My scoring system placed Jake Canada with the highest score for round 1.  You’ll notice that Roczen and Anderson placed 12th and 18th respectively.  You’ll find as the season goes on that these riders will score all over the board which is exactly what I had hoped for.  My goal was to create a scoring system that is dynamic as the riders themselves and I believe I’ve done that with the Roost'r CLAW.

If you’re as obsessed with SX as I am, please don’t hesitate to leave a comment or two and let me know what you think.  The factory teams have their own evaluation methods, it’s about time the fans did as well.  Who knows, perhaps this web of scores will reveal the next biggest star; thanks for clicking in.

The Roost’r

2014 Supercross Season Opener | Anaheim 1

Photo: supercrossonline.com

"All life is an experiment; the more experiments you make, the better."

If you read my last post you know that I have finally revealed the experiment I've been working on all summer.  As Ralph Waldo Emerson said, the more experiments the better so this season of SX I will apply my scoring to my predictions.  Only time will tell how well this works out but it can't be much worse than last year.  With some of our favorite riders moving up to 450's and all the new names in the 250 class this season should keep the excitement going.

In the 450 class Villopoto is the clear favorite but the talent is stacked and it's not going to be easy.  I don't believe Dungey will have as good a year with all the new faces and if the Monster Energy Cup is any indication James Stewart could give Villopoto all he can handle.  Justin Barcia I predict will have a breakout year and I can see him making a run for the title.  Millsaps, Canard, Reed, Short, Alessi, Weimer and Grant are veterans of the class and all have their own challenges to overcome and one can't help but wonder if they, other than Weimer, have lost a step to steal a term from the NFL.  Tomac, Roczen and Hahn are all going to have great rides too and will make the road to the title so much harder for the rest of the field.  Personally I can't wait to see Ivan Tedesco back on the track, look for him to shake things up as well.

In the 250 class (West) I am anxious to see how Durham performs in round 1.  I felt he was a heavy favorite last year but injuries knocked him out of the race.  With Tomac, Roczen and Hahn moving up he'll be one of my favorites for the title.  Zack Osborne scored high on my list last year and he could be the spoiler in the class.  Seely, Anderson and Wilson should place high each week with the nod going to Wilson.  Other riders to keep an eye on are Jake Canada, Zack Bell, Cooper Webb and Jessy Nelson.  The rookies had outstanding campaigns last season in SX and MX and will certainly improve their values this year.  Durham has been out of action for awhile and his stamina may come into play but I still like his chances to pull off the upset.

"That's right folks.  I just had three shots of Hennigan's, and I don't smell.  Imagine, you can walk around drunk all day.  That's Hennigan's, the no-smell, no-tell Scotch."  Ok, in all seriousness, the top 10 is served.

450 SX (+/- Handicap)
1. STEWART, J (-1)
2. VILLOPOTO (+1)
3. BARCIA (+1)
4. TOMAC (-1)
5. ROCZEN (-1)
6. WEIMER (-1)
7. GRANT (+1)
8. SHORT (-1)
9. REED (+1)
10. BRAYTON (+1)

250 SX (+/- Handicap)
1. DURHAM (-1)
2. SEELY (-1)
3. WILSON (+1)
4. OSBORNE (+1)
5. ANDERSON (-1)
6. WEBB (+1)
7. STEWART, M (+1)
8. NELSON (+1)
9. BELL (-1)
10. HILL, JUSTIN (+1)

George Patton once said "battle is an orgy of disorder."  Get ready SX fans, the 2014 season gets underway this weekend as the battle comes to Anaheim...

The Roost'r

Roost'r CLAW Illustrated

I’d like to first let everyone know that everything you see here is a work in progress.  The intellectual property mentioned or illustrated in this post is for non-commercial use only and is protected and should only be used by permission.  Also, pressed for time I only had time to snap photos of my spreadsheets so I apologize for the crude illustrations.

In my previous posts I referred to a scoring system I developed for measuring the individual performance of a Supercross athlete.  In this post I will explain a couple of spreadsheets I use in a fantasy game of sorts.

I don’t see many areas to improve my CLAW scores but I know they can be refined.  This whole scoring process is uncovering a number of different statistical possibilities that can keep me busy for some time.  I’m working on some really cool ideas but until then I’ve come up with a neat little way of playing Supercross every week.  The following slides are what I’ll use for round 1 of the 2014 SX season; what I call preseason scoring. 

Fig. 1  CLAW Grid

Figure 1 shows the CLAW score grid.  The GREEN column is the individual rider score and the ORANGE is the team scores.  These numbers are the result of many hours of statistical analysis in conjunction with advanced analytics.  You’ll quickly notice that both 250 and 450 riders are scored together.  Normalizing the two classes was the most complex function in the sequence but was essential in building a comprehensive model.  You may also notice the results are not what you’d typically see in a box score.  For example, notice how Villopoto is ranked 32 out of 36.  What I did for the first race is take my process through each riders' first performance of last season for scoring the preseason race.  In some instances I had to refer back even farther like in the case of Josh Hill or in the case of Tomac and Roczen I used their 450 debut performance at Daytona since they're riding 450's this season.  Of course it’s possible I’ll miss some riders because anything can happen in qualifying.  For round two I’ll use round 1 scores and so on.

Fig. 2  Individual TRAP Grid

Figure 2 shows the individual rider TRAP grid.  This slide simply shows the riders on a grid ranked highest to lowest.  What I’ll use this for is head-to-head challenges.  I would go around the grid matching each rider against his polar opposite and choose the rider I believe will outscore the other, based on my CLAW scores of course.

Figure 3 is the team TRAP grid.  The selection process was quite simple; I split the field in half and matched up each rider in descending order.  I then combined their individual scores then sorted from highest to lowest.  With this slide the object is to select the team you believe will outscore the other using the same sequence as above. 

Fig. 3  Team TRAP Grid

I’ve been experimenting with brackets so stayed tuned.  My scores make this option so much more interesting than using box scores because mine can be so unpredictable from week to week; looks pretty cool especially if you like wagering with friends and family.

So that’s it.  At this time I have no formal platform for delivering my scores or playing the grid but I have some ideas in the works.  I’m busy refining and developing new ways to employ the ideas set forth in this post so check back often.   If you have any comments please don’t hesitate to contact me at dirtlife.colorado@gmail.com

Look for top 10 predictions as well.  I had a ton of fun last season and I hope to improve on my results this year.  Thanks for checking in.

The Roost'r

Kurt Caselli | Ride In Peace

By now everyone has heard that the dirt bike community lost one of its favorite sons; Kurt Caselli.  I never had the privilege of seeing him race live but I have many DVDs and recorded programs that highlight the career of one of the most successful dirt bike riders of all time.  Alyssa Roenigk of ESPN wrote a revealing article that highlights the story of Kurt's journey toward a Baja 1000 victory only to unfold on that fateful day across the Baja Peninsula.  It's a brilliant narrative on perhaps one of the most sorrowful events to touch the motorcycle community in a long time.

Motorcycle racing is a dangerous sport and all these riders are beyond courageous.  They know the risks yet their hearts drive them to perform at an unbelievable level.  We, the fans, appreciate all they do but we'll never know the sacrifices they endure.  The sport lost a legend, one that will not soon be replaced.

Ride In Peace Kurt Caselli.

You can find Alyssa's article at xgames.espn.go.com/rally-moto-x/article/10078322/kurt-caselli-last-ride

The Roost'r

The Roost'r CLAW | The Evolution of Supercross

The top 10 riders accumulate the most points, get all the endorsements and attract all the attention and the rest struggle to be a player in this game.

Fans know that you can have a great ride and still lose a race.  They also know that less than your best is sometimes good enough to take the checkered flag.  A quick look at practice times will illustrate the point so the conclusion becomes obvious; it’s all about the start but some riders carry an unfair advantage – apparently this race to the holeshot is fought in the off season with the stroke of a pen.  But what if we could take the start out of the equation, neutralize track times and completely ignore the final results?  Could we still score a race?  The thought intrigued me.

Supercross is a very unique sport in that guys like you or me, well maybe not me, have the opportunity to compete against the best in the world, however given the disparity in the support received by such riders is it any surprise that the marginal rider rarely finds himself on the podium.  So I asked myself; is winning or losing really an accurate measure of a riders’ performance?  Should it be when some riders possess superior equipment, testing and training capabilities?  Track times are relevant in the context of racing but without further analysis they won't accurately measure the performance of the rider himself. Furthermore, the track conditions and personal effort put forth in a main event is far more intense than in practice and the line between control and utter chaos can be very different from rider to rider plus the level of competition at each race can differ.  All this led me to believe that we, the fans, could benefit from a holistic approach to evaluating our favorite riders.

Teams with the deepest pockets have an enormous advantage.  The training tools they have available are no match for the privateer but when it's all said and done it comes down to one thing; performance.  Inspired by sabermetrics I decided to look to statistical analysis to help answer some of these nagging questions.  If I could level the playing field and discount performance to its common equivalent, then I could create a set of statistics ideal for head-to-head evaluations, regardless of engine displacement, factory rider or privateer.  This is precisely what I set out to do when I created the Cross Linear Action Wave or what I like to refer to as the ROOST’R CLAW™ 

The Roost’r CLAW started as just an idea for bringing Supercross to my desktop and built around equal participation, sort of like the Monster Energy Cup all year.  If you’re anything like me, attending one race a year just isn’t enough and as a fan I wanted another way to participate.  The fantasy games I ran across use box scores as the basis for scoring so there was no way of getting around the redundancy so often found in racing; it became a contest of picking winners and losers against opponents with similar teams.  I concluded that scoring based on box scores will always have one inherent flaw and that is it will always be biased in favor of the point leaders and players will, to a large degree, gravitate to the point leaders.

This frustration led me to develop my own scoring system that ignores box scores, neutralizes timing, and normalizes 250 and 450 riders at the same time.  After many hours of laboring over my spreadsheets and studying video I noticed patterns emerge.  Calling on my experiences with applied mathematics and stochastic volatility I’ve come up with a system for scoring a riders’ individual performance.  I was focused on everything but the final result.  Using only the available information I first build a base sequence for each rider, then apply a set of functions to extract what I call a "TRAP" score.  From these results I'm able to create a unique set of scores that are as dynamic as the riders themselves.

I’ve decided to create my own games using these scores, one in particular I call Roost’r Trap®.  The Roost'r Trap is a unique collection of scores arranged in, well a trap.  It's a collection of scores arranged in a way perfect for head-to-head gaming, and can be wildly unpredictable.  It demands knowledge of the riders and their abilities, requires the player to understand the dynamics of a race, takes some luck too, after all this is Supercross and it has nothing to do with box scores.  

The concept refers to some complex mathematical theories but the results are actually quite simple.  I’ll continue to refine the system and at some point I hope to create an app.  Roostrtrap.com is still under construction but should be active by round 1 if you’d like to check in to see how it’s going.  I’ll have diagrams available in my next post so you can see some scoring samples.  Feel free to comment or find me on Twitter at @COdirtlife, you can also contact me directly at dirtlife.colorado@gmail.com.  Focus on the right numbers and Supercross will evolve for pros and fans alike.  The countdown has started so stay tuned... The Roost'r