2014 Supercross | Anaheim 2 Predictions

Photo: amasupercross.com

Round 2 is in the books and I don’t think we had any big surprises come out of this round.  The 250 class is dynamite so far while the 450 class feels a little more familiar.  Make no mistake, the SX season is exploding and should keep us on the edge of our seats all the way to Vegas.

Justin Brayton in the 450 class reminds me a little of Davi Millsaps’ early success last year – no one expected him to have such a strong start to the season.  Can Brayton have a similar run?  Jason Anderson is on a mission after a 4th overall finish last year.  Seely is visibly disappointed in his performance and my CLAW scores confirm his frustrations.  Seely’s performance dropped 7% while Anderson improved his performance by 6%.  Meanwhile, Zach Osborne improved his performance by 8%; is A2 his round?

I was reviewing my CLAW scores after this past race and perhaps I should explain how to make some sense of these numbers.  I set out to measure a riders’ individual relative performance, sort of like racing against yourself.  Let’s take Broc Tickle for example.  Broc finished in the same position in both races yet I gave him a score in Phoenix of 30.514 which is a 30% improvement from his A1 score.  He didn’t improve his finish but I clearly see an improvement in his relative performance.  Think of it as a power ranking. 

I had Eli Tomac in my top 10 before I knew he’d be a scratch.  I tried waiting but the word came too late that he wouldn’t be racing.  Other than that I have no excuses.  I had 4 calls with the handicap and 1 spot call.  I can’t tell you how difficult it is to predict with even a 1 place handicap.  This time last year I had 4 spot on predictions through the first 2 rounds and so far this year I have 3.  Clearly moving in the wrong direction but I’m keeping it close.

I’m going to try something new here with something I will call “Time Warp.”  In Time Warp I’m going to measure performances against riders who are retired.  For example, this week I decided to take a look at Ricky Carmichael's performance at Phoenix back in 2006.  Running my algorithm I gave Ricky's performance a score of 30.504.  When compared to the field at Phoenix 2014, the rider who scored the closest was oddly enough Broc Tickle with a score of 30.514.  Ricky took first back in 2006 while Broc came in 8th this year.  Their performances were eerily similar in terms of effort but of course the competition and machines are drastically different.  In any event, perhaps Ricky is rubbing off on Broc.

“Some people possess talent, others are possessed by it.  When that happens, a talent becomes a curse.”  Rod Serling must have been a SX racer in another life.  We’re traveling through another dimension; next stop the Anaheim Zone.

450 SX (+/- handicap)

1.Villopoto (-1)

2.Brayton (-1)

3.Stewart, J (+1)

4.Dungey (-1)

5.Barcia (+1)

6.Reed (-1)

7.Roczen (+1)

8.Tickle (+1)

9.Hahn (+1)

10.Short (-1)

250 SX (+/- handicap)

1.Seely (-1)

2.Anderson (+1)

3.Osborne (+1)

4.Wilson (-1)

5.Webb (-1)

6.Stewart, M (+1)

7.Nelson (+1)

8.Hill, J (+1)

9.Ferris (-1)

10.McElrath (+1)

Here is the TRAP for Phoenix.  Auberson was a bit of an anomaly.  I haven't had the time to review his sequence and I suspect I'll find something to correct.  The other riders seem unaffected.  In the field of 44 riders, Villopoto was the strongest rider.  By measuring their scores from race to race I should be able to quantify the momentum behind each rider.

A lot of greasy kid stuff, if it works I could potentially create a new type of fantasy game.  Till then...

The Roostr