2014 Supercross | Oakland Predictions

Photo: amasupercross.com

I think we all missed the 1.21 gigawatt lightning strike that the flux capacitor at the third round of Supercross because I don’t think even Chad Reed knew what hit him.  Back to the Future is exactly what we saw last weekend as Chad Reed pulled off perhaps his most impressive come from behind performances of his career.  Will Hahn had an impressive ride as well but the night belonged to TwoTwo.

The 450 class overall provided consistent performances while the 250 class showed a little volatility as illustrated in the TRAP below (Figure 1.)  The standout in the 450 class I thought was Josh Hill.  After failing to qualify at Phoenix, Josh redeemed himself with a gritty ride.  I gave Josh a CLAW score of 25.322 which is just 21 percent below Weston Peick’s high score of 33.946.  Justin Hill in the 250 class is my other standout at Anaheim 2.  Improving by 3 spots from Phoenix, I gave Justin a CLAW score of 27.570 or 7 percent off the lead score of 29.960 set by Jason Anderson.  The brothers are on a roll; let’s see if they can keep it up.

I had this experiment of mine planned out to create a new form of fantasy Supercross by developing a different scoring method focusing on performance rather points or placement.  That remains the goal however I had a reader ask me to segment the two classes so that he could see how the riders compare relative to their specific competition (see Figure 1.)  There seems to be a bit of confusion about the scores so just think of it as a power ranking – focus on the direction the scores are moving to help determine momentum.  Of course it will take skillful analysis to put it all together.

The Broncos are in the Super Bowl and SX continues; it’s been a fantastic week.  SX predictions are up next and to quote our Hall of Fame QB, Peyton Manning: HURRY, HURRY… 

450SX

1.Villopoto (-1)

2.Barcia (-1)

3.Stewart, J (+1)

4.Dungey (+1)

5.Reed (+1)

6.Tickle (-1)

7.Roczen (+1)

8.Brayton (+1)

9.Hahn (+1)

10.Short (-1)

250SX (+/- handicap)

1.Anderson (-1)

2.Seely (+1)

3.Stewart, M (-1)

4.Webb (-1)

5.Wilson (+1)

6.Osborne (+1)

7.Hill, Justin (+1)

8.McElrath (+1)

9.Leib (-1)

10.Nelson (+1)

TRAP illustrations will be up shortly; stay tuned....

The Roost'r