It's 5:00pm here in Boulder and the races are almost on. In the interest of time I'm just going to get right into my predictions.
450 SX (+/- handicap)
1. Stewart (-1)
2. Villopoto (+1)
3. Roczen (+1)
4. Barcia (-1)
5. Dungey (+1)
6. Brayton (-1)
7. Tickle (+1)
8. Tomac (+1)
9. Peick (+1)
10. Short (-1)
250 SX (+/- handicap)
1. Baggett (-1)
2. Davalos (+1)
3. Cianciarulo (+1)
4. Bogle (+1)
5. Wharton (-1)
6. Friese (+1)
7. Cunningham (-1)
8. Thompson (-1)
9. Martin, A (+1)
10. Faith (+1)
I'll attach a pic and graphics after the conclusion of the race. Till then, enjoy...
The Roost'r
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Saturday, February 15, 2014
2014 Supercross | Arlington Predictions
Kaitlyn
Farrington, Kelly Clark and Hannah Teter nearly pulled off an Olympic medal
sweep in the women’s halfpipe competition in Sochi earlier this week. It was such an exciting night I couldn’t help
but wonder why there are no girls racing at any of the Supercross rounds. I’ve always thought of Supercross as the
ballet of motor sports and perhaps a track with a line suitable for the girls
could add some color to the sport. Congratulations
to all the women competing in sports typically overshadowed by the guys.
San Diego is
in the books and the 250 class moves to the East. Not a lot of surprises at the finish but no
one was happier than James Stewart who found himself on the top box for the
first time this season. It’s kind of
amazing it finished that way as I’m sure the whole viewing audience was
expecting the SX gods to unleash the kracken on the number seven, and that’s a
lot of negative mojo in the air. Weston
Peick continues to impress as well as Chad Reed (sounds like he’ll be nursing
some broken bones this week) despite his spill in the final lap. The only guy I think who still has some
questions to answer this season is Justin Barcia who’s well off the pace in the
points standing.
Not sure if
anyone noticed but Justin Hill was my top rider at A3 on my TRAP and he just so
happened to take the checkered flag – maybe I’m on to something. I’m getting a little ahead of myself but what
a ride from the Pro Circuit rider. He’d
been improving week after week so no one should be surprised. Wilson and Webb suffered another setback but
you can never count these guys out.
Shane McElrath seems to score well on my charts and if not for the break
I think he could have broken into the top 3.
So the
thunder in the east begins and the second wave of 250 riders makes their
debut. Here we go Arlington, 450 and 250
predictions on tap..
450 SX (+/1
handicap)
1.Villopoto (-1)
2.Stewart (+1)
3.Roczen (+1)
4.Dungey (-1)
5.Tomac (-1)
6.Peick (+1)
7.Barcia (+1)
8.Tickle (+1)
9.Brayton (+1)
10.Short (-1)
250 SX (+/-
handicap)
1.Musquin (-1)
2.Wharton (-1)
3.Baggett (+1)
4.Davalos (+1)
5.Friese (+1)
6.Faith (-1)
7.Cunningham (+1)
8.Thompson (-1)
9.Martin, J (+1)
10.Catanzaro (-1)
The Roost'r
 |
| Sorted by points |
 |
| Sorted by points |
Saturday, February 8, 2014
2014 Supercross | San Diego Predictions
 |
| Photo: racerxonline.com |
But of course the
day belonged to Chad Reed. For the
second time this season Reed has defied the odds. I was reluctant to hand the ball to Millsaps
last year bet he thrived until injuries tripped him up. This year I won’t make that same
mistake. Reed is the real deal as long
as he keeps everyone close. The field
will make coming from behind very difficult, just as Jake Weimer, who by the
way had an outstanding ride last weekend.
Will Reed back it up with another great performance? He’s had some great rides at San Diego so it’ll
be hard to bet against him this week. As
for Eli Tomac, perhaps he came back too early; I guess we’ll see how he holds
up this week. It’s probably safe to say
that his chances for a title are all but over if he has a bad showing this
week.
In the 250 class
we saw the Pro Circuit team finally get a win.
Wilson should have taken the checkered flag last weekend and the blame
should land squarely with the wrenches.
I gave Anderson the highest score last week but Wilson was not far
behind. I believe Anderson has the edge
over most of the field at this point but I can see some newcomers making moves,
notably Justin Hill, Cooper Webb and Shane McElrath. One rider in particular that I think deserves
a little recognition is the Frenchman Jean Marrone. He didn’t have a great finish but his effort during
the race was admirable. Not the best
rider out of Paris, that honor would go to Valentin Teillet, but Marrone did
the most from his position last weekend.
Dakota Tedder is another rider flying just under the radar with his
first top 10 of the season. Not a
particularly great performance but it was enough to place him alongside the
best in the world.
My record last
weekend was only outdone by the Broncos performance at Super Bowl XLVIII. I had ZERO calls right, even with the
handicap, in the 450 class. I did better
in the 250 class and actually improved my ratios. The weekend is one I’d just like to
forget. “He who fears being conquered is
sure of defeat” so I move on. San Diego
ready for kickoff…
450SX (+/- handicap)
1. Stewart (-1)
2. Villopoto (+1)
3. Reed (+1)
4. Roczen (-1)
5. Brayton (-1)
6. Barcia (+1)
7. Dungey (-1)
8. Peick (-1)
9. Short (-1)
10. Goerke (-1)
250SX (+/- handicap)
1. Anderson (-1)
2. Wilson (-1)
3. Seely (-1)
4. Webb (+1)
5. Hill (-1)
6. Stewart (-1)
7. Nelson (-1)
8. McElrath (-1)
9. Ferris (-1)
10. Canada (-1)
Saturday, February 1, 2014
2014 Supercross | Anaheim 3 Predictions
 |
| Photo: amasupercross.com |
So it is "United in Orange" here in Denver and we're ready to see our Broncos go all Cobra Kai on the Seattle Seahawks. I have not had a chance to review last weeks race so I don't have anything to say about Oakland. If you want a play-by-play look at last weeks race check out www.racerxonline.com for all the latest.
I've decided to take your suggestions and separate the 2 classes instead of combining them. Combining them works great for fantasy challenges but this format is much more about analysis than gaming but stay tuned because I have a lot of cool things in the works.
I mentioned in an earlier post that my platform is a work in progress and I've made a small adjustment to the algorithm to address a couple of random issues. That being said after running my application I gave the top spot in the 450 class to Jake Weimer. In the 250 class I gave the top spot to Jason Anderson. See Figure 1 below.
I had a great week with a number of calls either spot on or within the handicap, not sure if that's sustainable but we'll see. Anderson had some great luck last week; he'll need more than luck this week. I grew up a huge Cowboys fan but since moving here to Colorado I have grown to love the Orange and Blue. Next is the Super Bowl Super Cross picks for A3.
450SX (+/- handicap)
1. Villopoto (-1)
2. Stewart (+1)
3. Brayton (-1)
4. Dungey (-1)
5. Barcia (-1)
6. Weimer (+1)
7. Roczen (-1)
8. Hahn (+1)
9. Tomac (-1)
10. Peick (+1)
250SX (+/- handicap)
1. Anderson (-1)
2. Wilson (+1)
3. Seely (-1)
4. Stewart (-1)
5. Webb (+1)
6. Hill, Justin (+1)
7. Osborne (+1)
8. McElrath (-1)
9. Nelson (+1)
10. Ferris (+1)
 |
| Figure 1 |
Saturday, January 25, 2014
2014 Supercross | Oakland Predictions
 |
| Photo: amasupercross.com |
The 450 class
overall provided consistent performances while the 250 class showed a little
volatility as illustrated in the TRAP below (Figure 1.) The standout in the 450 class I thought was
Josh Hill. After failing to qualify at
Phoenix, Josh redeemed himself with a gritty ride. I gave Josh a CLAW score of 25.322 which is
just 21 percent below Weston Peick’s high score of 33.946. Justin Hill in the 250 class is my other
standout at Anaheim 2. Improving by 3
spots from Phoenix, I gave Justin a CLAW score of 27.570 or 7 percent off the
lead score of 29.960 set by Jason Anderson.
The brothers are on a roll; let’s see if they can keep it up.
I had this experiment
of mine planned out to create a new form of fantasy Supercross by developing a
different scoring method focusing on performance rather points or
placement. That remains the goal however
I had a reader ask me to segment the two classes so that he could see how the
riders compare relative to their specific competition (see Figure 1.) There seems to be a bit of confusion about
the scores so just think of it as a power ranking – focus on the direction the
scores are moving to help determine momentum.
Of course it will take skillful analysis to put it all together.
The Broncos
are in the Super Bowl and SX continues; it’s been a fantastic week. SX predictions are up next and to quote our
Hall of Fame QB, Peyton Manning: HURRY, HURRY…
450SX
1.Villopoto (-1)
2.Barcia (-1)
3.Stewart, J (+1)
4.Dungey (+1)
5.Reed (+1)
6.Tickle (-1)
7.Roczen (+1)
8.Brayton (+1)
9.Hahn (+1)
10.Short (-1)
250SX (+/- handicap)
1.Anderson (-1)
2.Seely (+1)
3.Stewart, M (-1)
4.Webb (-1)
5.Wilson (+1)
6.Osborne (+1)
7.Hill, Justin (+1)
8.McElrath (+1)
9.Leib (-1)
10.Nelson (+1)
TRAP illustrations will be up shortly; stay tuned....
The Roost'r
Friday, January 17, 2014
2014 Supercross | Anaheim 2 Predictions
 |
| Photo: amasupercross.com |
Justin
Brayton in the 450 class reminds me a little of Davi Millsaps’ early success
last year – no one expected him to have such a strong start to the season. Can Brayton have a similar run? Jason Anderson is on a mission after a 4th
overall finish last year. Seely is
visibly disappointed in his performance and my CLAW scores confirm his
frustrations. Seely’s performance
dropped 7% while Anderson improved his performance by 6%. Meanwhile, Zach Osborne improved his performance
by 8%; is A2 his round?
I was
reviewing my CLAW scores after this past race and perhaps I should explain how
to make some sense of these numbers. I
set out to measure a riders’ individual relative performance, sort of like
racing against yourself. Let’s take Broc
Tickle for example. Broc finished in the
same position in both races yet I gave him a score in Phoenix of 30.514 which
is a 30% improvement from his A1 score.
He didn’t improve his finish but I clearly see an improvement in his
relative performance. Think of it as a power ranking.
I had Eli
Tomac in my top 10 before I knew he’d be a scratch. I tried waiting but the word came too late
that he wouldn’t be racing. Other than
that I have no excuses. I had 4 calls
with the handicap and 1 spot call. I
can’t tell you how difficult it is to predict with even a 1 place
handicap. This time last year I had 4
spot on predictions through the first 2 rounds and so far this year I have
3. Clearly moving in the wrong direction
but I’m keeping it close.
I’m going to try something new here with something I will call “Time Warp.” In Time Warp I’m going to measure performances against riders who are retired. For example, this week I decided to take a look at Ricky Carmichael's performance at Phoenix back in 2006. Running my algorithm I gave Ricky's performance a score of 30.504. When compared to the field at Phoenix 2014, the rider who scored the closest was oddly enough Broc Tickle with a score of 30.514. Ricky took first back in 2006 while Broc came in 8th this year. Their performances were eerily similar in terms of effort but of course the competition and machines are drastically different. In any event, perhaps Ricky is rubbing off on Broc.
I’m going to try something new here with something I will call “Time Warp.” In Time Warp I’m going to measure performances against riders who are retired. For example, this week I decided to take a look at Ricky Carmichael's performance at Phoenix back in 2006. Running my algorithm I gave Ricky's performance a score of 30.504. When compared to the field at Phoenix 2014, the rider who scored the closest was oddly enough Broc Tickle with a score of 30.514. Ricky took first back in 2006 while Broc came in 8th this year. Their performances were eerily similar in terms of effort but of course the competition and machines are drastically different. In any event, perhaps Ricky is rubbing off on Broc.
“Some people
possess talent, others are possessed by it.
When that happens, a talent becomes a curse.” Rod Serling must have been a SX racer in
another life. We’re traveling through
another dimension; next stop the Anaheim Zone.
450 SX (+/-
handicap)
1.Villopoto
(-1)
2.Brayton
(-1)
3.Stewart, J
(+1)
4.Dungey (-1)
5.Barcia (+1)
6.Reed (-1)
7.Roczen (+1)
8.Tickle (+1)
9.Hahn (+1)
10.Short (-1)
250 SX (+/-
handicap)
1.Seely (-1)
2.Anderson
(+1)
3.Osborne
(+1)
4.Wilson (-1)
5.Webb (-1)
6.Stewart, M
(+1)
7.Nelson (+1)
8.Hill, J
(+1)
9.Ferris (-1)
10.McElrath
(+1)
Here is the TRAP for Phoenix. Auberson was a bit of an anomaly. I haven't had the time to review his sequence and I suspect I'll find something to correct. The other riders seem unaffected. In the field of 44 riders, Villopoto was the strongest rider. By measuring their scores from race to race I should be able to quantify the momentum behind each rider.
A lot of greasy kid stuff, if it works I could potentially create a new type of fantasy game. Till then...
The Roostr
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