Saturday, January 11, 2014

2014 Supercross | Phoenix Predictions



Photo: amasupercross.com
My Sunday morning routine this time of year; hit the snooze 3 or 4 times, turn on the coffee pot, review my SX notes from the night before then plan out my day around the NFL playoffs – some things never change, just like the unpredictability of round 1 in Supercross.



Some of you will have noticed that Ryan Dungey was conspicuously left out of my top 10 for A1.  Like last year, I felt there would be some mistakes that could affect the outcome of the season and this year I thought Dungey would have the dumpster fire.  I actually came up with 2 possibilities in this category; Dungey and Tomac but I ended up giving the nod to Dungey because I thought his new teammate might leave him with something to prove and of course he doesn’t need to prove anything.  I got the rider wrong but Anaheim 1 had another groundhog day, unfortunately James Stewart beat himself again.  I couldn’t decide in the 250 class so I left them unchanged.



The 250 class is always exciting because it’s a huge proving ground for the next generation of SX superstars.  I was not surprised at all by the results and I only missed one name in the top 10.  Anderson was my biggest surprise and what a charge at the end of the race to pull off the upset.  I believe we’ll see this set of riders dominate the West top 10 this year and the points lead may even see a few changes along the way.  Great effort by all these guys and I am so looking forward to round 2.



I like the format this year with the semi rounds making a comeback.  It does tend to take the pressure off the riders and perhaps takes a little of the fire out of the LCQ but the trade off is more racing so I guess it all evens out.  Supercross and playoff football, what a great country we live in – round 2 in the gate.



450 SX (+/- handicap)


1. STEWART, J (-1)

2. VILLOPOTO (+1)

3. BARCIA (-1)

4. DUNGEY (+1)

5. ROCZEN (+1)

6. REED (+1)

7. BRAYTON (+1)

8. TOMAC (-1)

9. WEIMER (+1)

10. TICKLE (+1)



250 SX (+/- handicap)


1. SEELY (-1)

2. OSBORNE (+1)

3. WILSON (-1)

4. ANDERSON (+1)

5. HILL, JUSTIN (-1)

6. WEBB (-1)

7. DURHAM (+1)

8. STEWART, M (+1)

9. CANADA (+1)

10. LEIB (-1)



Figure 1
Figure 1 is my Roost’r TRAP for Anaheim 1.  My scoring system placed Jake Canada with the highest score for round 1.  You’ll notice that Roczen and Anderson placed 12th and 18th respectively.  You’ll find as the season goes on that these riders will score all over the board which is exactly what I had hoped for.  My goal was to create a scoring system that is dynamic as the riders themselves and I believe I’ve done that with the Roost'r CLAW.



If you’re as obsessed with SX as I am, please don’t hesitate to leave a comment or two and let me know what you think.  The factory teams have their own evaluation methods, it’s about time the fans did as well.  Who knows, perhaps this web of scores will reveal the next biggest star; thanks for clicking in.



The Roost’r

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