Roost'r CLAW Illustrated

I’d like to first let everyone know that everything you see here is a work in progress.  The intellectual property mentioned or illustrated in this post is for non-commercial use only and is protected and should only be used by permission.  Also, pressed for time I only had time to snap photos of my spreadsheets so I apologize for the crude illustrations.

In my previous posts I referred to a scoring system I developed for measuring the individual performance of a Supercross athlete.  In this post I will explain a couple of spreadsheets I use in a fantasy game of sorts.

I don’t see many areas to improve my CLAW scores but I know they can be refined.  This whole scoring process is uncovering a number of different statistical possibilities that can keep me busy for some time.  I’m working on some really cool ideas but until then I’ve come up with a neat little way of playing Supercross every week.  The following slides are what I’ll use for round 1 of the 2014 SX season; what I call preseason scoring. 

Fig. 1  CLAW Grid

Figure 1 shows the CLAW score grid.  The GREEN column is the individual rider score and the ORANGE is the team scores.  These numbers are the result of many hours of statistical analysis in conjunction with advanced analytics.  You’ll quickly notice that both 250 and 450 riders are scored together.  Normalizing the two classes was the most complex function in the sequence but was essential in building a comprehensive model.  You may also notice the results are not what you’d typically see in a box score.  For example, notice how Villopoto is ranked 32 out of 36.  What I did for the first race is take my process through each riders' first performance of last season for scoring the preseason race.  In some instances I had to refer back even farther like in the case of Josh Hill or in the case of Tomac and Roczen I used their 450 debut performance at Daytona since they're riding 450's this season.  Of course it’s possible I’ll miss some riders because anything can happen in qualifying.  For round two I’ll use round 1 scores and so on.

Fig. 2  Individual TRAP Grid

Figure 2 shows the individual rider TRAP grid.  This slide simply shows the riders on a grid ranked highest to lowest.  What I’ll use this for is head-to-head challenges.  I would go around the grid matching each rider against his polar opposite and choose the rider I believe will outscore the other, based on my CLAW scores of course.

Figure 3 is the team TRAP grid.  The selection process was quite simple; I split the field in half and matched up each rider in descending order.  I then combined their individual scores then sorted from highest to lowest.  With this slide the object is to select the team you believe will outscore the other using the same sequence as above. 

Fig. 3  Team TRAP Grid

I’ve been experimenting with brackets so stayed tuned.  My scores make this option so much more interesting than using box scores because mine can be so unpredictable from week to week; looks pretty cool especially if you like wagering with friends and family.

So that’s it.  At this time I have no formal platform for delivering my scores or playing the grid but I have some ideas in the works.  I’m busy refining and developing new ways to employ the ideas set forth in this post so check back often.   If you have any comments please don’t hesitate to contact me at dirtlife.colorado@gmail.com

Look for top 10 predictions as well.  I had a ton of fun last season and I hope to improve on my results this year.  Thanks for checking in.

The Roost'r