2013 Supercross | San Diego | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo credit: amasupercross.com

I would much rather be wrong in my predictions than have the same guys on the podium every week; that's the truth!  It just so happens that I stunk it up last week thanks to another crazy round in Anaheim.  The big story was the unbelievable perseverance of Ryan Dungey.  After watching him bring the hobbled KTM to a stop in his heat race then come back HUGE from way behind in the LCQ then topping it off with a 1st place finish in the main; now that's overcoming adversity.

KTM had a huge night with both a 250SX and 450SX win despite the miscalculation with Dungey's rear shock.  Millsaps is still the points leader and the luckiest guy on the planet.  There's no doubt that he's having his best year yet but the scene would look much different had it not been for others grappling with Murphy's law.  The 250SX class is perhaps a bit more predictable in terms of points but even that can unravel at any time.  The math should be a concern for the Tomac camp; he can't win even if he and Roczen come in 1st and 2nd from here on out.  All he can hope for is that Roczen stumbles and that is one heck of a Hail Mary.

So what do I think will happen this week? I was 20% in the 450SX class last week and a big fat goose egg in the 250SX class.  My results would have been better with a 1 handicap but we'll save that for later.  As for injuries, it sounds like Weimer is out and Josh Grant may not be far behind.  That said, let's run 'em down.

450 SUPERCROSS

1. Ryan Villopoto - He will not be denied!  RV is without question the fastest guy on the track but it will take him 6 rounds to steal the points lead from Millsaps if they run 1 and 2 going forward.  That shouldn't be a problem for RV; he had 9 overall wins last year.

2. Justin Barcia - I knew Barcia would ride smarter last week and what do you know, he's just as fast when you slow him down.  He didn't have enough time to catch Millsaps with Stewart crowding all the sweet passing lanes but he was charging hard and he'll have another chance this week.

3. Davi Millsaps - I still can't believe I have Millsaps in the top 5 but man has he earned it.  I'm picking him third this week not because I don't think he can win, I'm just playing the odds.  He's proved me wrong so far this year so let's see if he can beat the odds too.

4. Ryan Dungey - What an unbelievable night he had last week, I was literally on the edge of my seat.  Ryan finally got the start he wanted and how ironic that it came off the last gate pick.  We all know Ryan's strengths and he'll need those kinds of starts to maintain his momentum, I just don't think he'll pull it off this week.

5. Chad Reed - Two weeks in a row the #22 has caused some disruption.  I mentioned last week that this was rare and I suppose so are my predictions.  Will he ride mistake free this week?  San Diego has always been kind to Reed.

6. James Stewart - We have not seen James ride as well as he did last week all season.  He looked like the James of old.  Fading late in the race could be a sign of fatigue and either it's due to limited time on the bike or his knee is really giving him trouble, maybe both.  I think he'll have enough to maintain another top 10 finish but his hopes for a title are all but gone.

7. Trey Canard - Trey has had some setbacks lately and last week was no exception.  He's definitely on the gas, he just can't seem to ride mistake free.  I suppose avoiding serious mistakes are a step in the right direction so he should be somewhat pleased with that.

8. Andrew Short - It seems as if losing his team was the best thing to happen to Andrew in a while.  It is also a great testament to the skill of these riders-a works bike sure helps but it always comes down to the rider.  Andrew is on an inferior bike and he is showing us just what he's made of.

9. Justin Brayton - Came up with the holeshot then Chad Reed happened!  He still managed to come back through the pack and showed a lot of grit.  He's on a great bike and he should have better luck this week with Weimer and perhaps even Grant out of the picture.

10. Mike Alessi - Another tough week for Alessi.  He gives himself a shot every week with his starts and although I don't think he'll ever make it to the podium this season, I still believe he has the speed to finish in the top 10.

250 SUPERCROSS

1. Eli Tomac - In the mains, Eli is tough to beat if he gets out front.  What has been hurting him is his starts and even if he brings home the gold every week, it will be tough to catch Roczen.  One thing is for sure, he has no choice but to go for it all and hope Roczen falls on some bad luck.

2. Cole Seely - Cole is in the hot seat too and he'll need to turn it up from here on out.  He may not be riding under as much pressure as the other guys but his team knows he's still in the title race in the event trouble finds both Tomac and Roczen. 

3. Ken Roczen - Ken controls his own destiny.  They're crunching the numbers and he'll likely be instructed to protect his lead (stay out of trouble), which may not include shooting for an overall win.  He just needs to stay close to Tomac and the title is his.

4. Martin Davalos - Martin has emerged as a contender in a field dominated by Tomac, Seely and Roczen.  He was the second fastest last week and doesn't show any signs of slowing.  He just may be the spoiler sending Tomac and Seely scrambling for position; that's a great place to be.

5. Jason Anderson - Jason has the speed to challenge for the top spot, he just needs to avoid all the trouble that seems to find him in the mains.  He'll be fast as always but he won't be able to get past the top 4.

6. Kyle Cunningham - This has been an outstanding year for Cunningham and he can easily run in the top 3.  This class is really stacked and he and Jason Anderson have been challenging each other all season.  This is a really tough call.

7. Zach Osborne - Zach was the 6th fastest last week and if he can have a clean race he'll make the top 10.  He's another rider who has the potential to run up front.  He went down last week and has been complaining of some shoulder pain and it may bug him this week.

8. Tyla Rattray - More tough luck in the 250SX class and Tyla was a victim last week.  Tough night for Rattray and the team can't be happy about missing the main.  He'll ride a bit smarter this week.

9. Malcolm Stewart - Looks like Malcolm will be back for San Diego.  He's on the gas and sure to make up for last week.  He has to stay clear of trouble or he'll suffer the same fate.

10. Joey Savatgy - This is a rookie on fire.  His instincts and track presence are really coming along.  He showed a lot of grit last week proving he's ready to bang bars if he has to.  Another rookie to keep an eye on.

So these are my picks for San Diego.  "Outliers" suggests 10,000 hours of practice makes perfect so that means I just have 9995 hours to go; sure glad it's winter.

The Roost'r