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| Photo credit: amasupercross.com |
I'm going to have to start giving myself a handicap; this season is so bizarre. My picks were way off this week thanks to the thrills and spills throughout the evening; I had a feeling something was going to shake up the points standings but I wasn't brave enough to pick it. I guess I'm not much of a prognosticator, yet!
From what I gather it seems Tomac will line up in Anaheim this weekend in good health. Ken Roczen looked like a champ last week and if Tomac wasn't in the lineup I'd put my money on Roczen to take the championship. Seely can make a run but he seems to fade late in the race and that's when Roczen really heats up. Seely's only chance is a sizable lead going into about lap 17. The rest of the field is terribly inconsistent with some exceptions of course and there's no telling what may happen next.
In the 450SX class, sounds like Barcia and Stewart are on the mends-I'm still not convinced Stewart will make it 17 rounds on that bum knee. The story is still the iron will from the #18. After 4 rounds he's still in the catbird seat but for how long? I can appreciate the effort but can we say that Davi is the fastest man on the planet? Villopoto is riding with such determination and the only one that can beat him is himself. As for Dungey, it was frustrating watching him. He had a chance to block pass on many occasions yet held off for the safe pass. He will not get past his biggest competition riding like that. Chad Reed sure mixed it up in turn one knocking out some of his competition yet couldn't recover from the disappointing start.
So I've decided, my goal going forward is no longer 80% of the top 10 but 100% of the top 5. I'll continue my top 10 predictions and perhaps after a season or two I'll raise the goal. For now, let's see what the magic 8 ball says......will I call the top 5 in any class...."outlook good."
450 SUPERCROSS CLASS
1. Ryan Villopoto - Who can argue with this pick? There is no one on the track that can keep pace with him right now. He attacks every part of the track and when he's behind he's even more dangerous. He doesn't make a lot of mistakes and that's all his competition can count on.
2. Ryan Dungey - This week the chips will fall Dungey's way. He's had some bad luck lately yet he's still one of the fastest guys on the track. It pains me to say that it all comes down to the start and if Dungey can just get a good start, he'll be able to hold his position; he'll need it because he has difficulty passing his fiercest competition.
3. Davi Millsaps - After 4 weeks there is no reason why any of us should continue to doubt Millsaps, especially me. He's been the most consistent, not quite the fastest but he's been riding very smart and has managed to stay out of trouble. His starts have a lot to do with it and we're likely to see more of the same this week.
4. Justin Barcia - Justin has the speed to run in 1st and he knows it. The question is will he throw caution to the wind or will he realize he can't afford another DNF/DNS? His instincts suggest the former but I would have to guess the latter will be his strategy. He's had great starts at Anaheim and he'll need another one this weekend.
5. Chad Reed - Sure, he caused the pile up last week and I'm sure he feels terrible about it.....hmmm. This was a mistake he rarely makes and before then he was definitely making a run. He was lucky to come out of that unscathed and he'll be ready to go this week.
6. Jake Weimer - Sounds like Jake was out sick last week and if he's feeling better he'll be on the gate this weekend. Jake seems to be on the verge of breaking out, he just needs that little extra push. He reminds me a lot of Dungey; let's see who finally breaks the nice guy mentality.
7. James Stewart - As of this posting I have no information to indicate Stewart won't be in the lineup this weekend. We all know how fast Stewart is and he should be running in the top 3 so there's definitely something to his injury. In rounds 1 and 2 he was about as healthy as he's been all season and he still didn't place any higher than 7th. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he finishes in the top 10; I'm crossing my fingers.
8. Andrew Short - With his team bowing out last week, he did the only thing a Supercross racer could do; RACE! On a sub-par bike he soldiered on to a very impressive 6th place finish. A ride like this should pique the interest of some sponsors so lets hope someone steps up to help him out. Whatever happens, it won't keep this competitor out.
9. Broc Tickle - It's only a matter of time before Tickle breaks the top 10 and I believe he has a great chance this week. He couldn't find his way around Short last week and I don't believe he could have held him off either. He'll need a better start and that's exactly what I think will happen this week.
10. Mike Alessi - Alessi had his best showing last week coming in 5th but that's because of the Reed-n-roll in the first lap. Clearly Alessi is best on the long track but I still think he's got the talent to make the top 10. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
250 SUPERCROSS CLASS
1. Eli Tomac - Everyone has a bad day now and then and last week was Eli's. It appears he's back to normal or at least that's what his camp is saying. I'll believe 'em and this week Eli continues his domination. He's been great at Anaheim and no one seems to have an answer for him.
2. Ken Roczen - Roczen and Seely have been fairly even at the starts but Roczen seems to finish stronger. He's the points leader now so he'll give it all he's got to hold onto the lead. If Roczen and Tomac run in this order going forward it will take 4 rounds for Eli to catch up. That means Roczen has a great shot at going into the break with the lead.
3. Cole Seely - Cole will play spoiler for either Tomac or Roczen and I think that's a great spot to be in. At this point he has the least to lose and as long as he rides mistake free, he just may have a shot at winning the whole thing. Problem is Tomac and Roczen rarely make mistakes.
4. Jason Anderson - The race gets really tight after 3rd place. Jason has been riding fast on this track and with his 3rd visit he has to be dialed in. He had a great start last week and no one could get past him, and last weeks track was difficult. He'll be tough to catch this round too.
5. Zach Osborne - I've been reviewing my metrics all week and I finally came to a decision on my number 5 pick. Zach didn't get a good start last week but he's "trending" here at Anaheim. He has the speed and track presence to keep the competition behind him, let's see if he can keep it up this week.
6. Martin Davalos - We'll never forget that horrific crash in Phoenix and even more amazing was his resilience; that showed a lot of heart. He'll ride with that same intensity this week and should have a great showing. I still haven't seen the speed it takes to get by his top competitors but he's getting close.
7. Jake Canada - Jake is perhaps having the worst luck of all this season. I say this because he seems to be completely healthy, he clearly has the speed to run up front, he just tends to find himself in the wrong place at the wrong time. I believe his luck will change this week.
8. Tyla Rattray - Last week I predicted that Rattray would have a better ride than his teammate and I was wrong. After 4 rounds it's becoming clear that Davalos has the edge on Tyla. Pro Circuit has to be pleased with the teams' performance but they won't be happy unless these guys compete for a championship.
9. Jessy Nelson - Jessy is a rising star in this class and it's only a matter of time before he finds his way to the front. The whole TLD, Lucas Oil Honda team has been outstanding this year and this rider in particular is showing a lot of potential. It'll take a little luck to find his way to this spot and I think it'll find him this week.
10. Kyle Cunningham - Kyle and Jessy are pretty well matched and last time at Anaheim Jessy wasn't able to get by Cunningham. For these two it will absolutely come down to the start. Whoever gets the better start will hold the position to the checkered flag, unfortunately for Kyle I think Nelson beats him to turn 1.
There you have it, the top 10 for each class. I'm shooting for 100% of the top 5 in each class and I'm confident I'm getting closer. I'm looking forward to another live broadcast; I wish I was there!
The Roost'r
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