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| Photo credit: amasupercross.com |
Heat racing was awesome and the biggest surprise was
Barcia and Millsaps on the gate for the LCQ.
They had no problem securing the top two spots as they battled for the
second worst gate pick. This may sound
unusual but it’s great to see the 450SX class in disarray. For a while now the class has been somewhat
predictable and finally we’re treated to a spectacular season. As for the 250 West, the top riders seem to
have found their pace however the field is deep and anyone can easily find his
way to the front when mistakes happen.
Easily the best season in a long time so far, I sure hope it continues. One other observation is the focus on more of
the riders back in the field. I made a
comment some time ago that the broadcast crew needed to give more attention to
other riders and perhaps they read my blog because I’ve noticed a lot more
attention focused on the races going on behind the leaders-bravo!
I was 20% with the Villopoto and Reed picks and came
close by one position on the Dungey and Brayton pick. Had Barcia not gone out I believe he would
have taken the #2 spot. As for the 250SX
class, had it not been for the Davalos choke pick, I would have called the
first 5 picks correctly so instead I’m 30% this week. All but 2 of my 250SX picks were in the top
10 so I must be making progress.
So what’s in store for round 4? I’ll say this much, James Stewart is
certainly out of the points race, if not the season. I mentioned before that an ACL injury will
take some time to recover from and if he chooses surgery he’ll certainly miss
the outdoor season as well. With Stewart’s
troubles and Windham out, some riders back in the field may have better results. In the 250SX class, Eli Tomac is clearly the
favorite for the West but anything can happen.
With such a short season, some of these guys have to be getting
desperate. Enough anecdotes, let’s get
down to business.
450 SUPERCROSS CLASS
1. Ryan Villopoto – This pick is easy; Ryan is clearly the
fastest guy on the track. He doesn’t
need the best starts to win and as long as he can keep the knee in check, he
should be a lock for his 3rd 450 Supercross title.
2. Justin Barcia – This shouldn’t be a difficult pick but
Barcia seems to find trouble on the track.
His speed is undeniable and his will is unwavering, all he needs to do
is keep it on two wheels. He’ll have a
better race this week and no one can touch him when he’s on, except maybe
Villopoto.
3. Trey Canard – The comeback story of the season
continues. Trey is having some of his
best rides in his career and nothing seems to be bothering him so far. His confidence is high and the bike is dialed
in, as long as he keeps it up he’ll be a top 5 rider all season.
4. Ryan Dungey – Ryan knows that he has to step up or any
hopes of a title are gone. He’s
struggled off the gate and his riding style demands a good start. He has the speed to hold off his competition
but he needs to get up front first to be effective. He’ll have a better start this week; he has
to!
5. Chad Reed – Reed has to be one of the smartest guys on
the track and he knows he’s close. He
posted some great lap times last week and even managed to get past Millsaps
toward the end of the main. As the
season rolls on the field will converge and that’s when he’ll pounce. His job is to keep it close then turn it on
towards the end-when the math comes into play.
6. Davi Millsaps – Having an absolutely incredible year,
Davi is finally showing us all his true potential. His starts have helped him tremendously but
his competitors are starting to gain their confidence and that will pose
problems for #18. He’ll fight for
position and that will keep him in the top 10 but this week will be a challenge
to hold onto the red plate.
7. Jake Weimer – Jake couldn’t seem to find his way around
Reed last week and I fear he would have had the same problem with Millsaps. His team, his bike, his fitness all seem to
be there so what’s the problem? I can’t
put my finger on it but he’ll need to figure it out soon or we may see Weimer
on a different team next year.
8. Andrew Short – I haven’t been giving Shorty a lot of
attention but now that Stewart’s health is in question and with the retirement
of Kevin Windham, Andrew is in a great position. He won’t win the title but his consistency
will earn him a solid top 10 overall.
9. Justin Brayton – We’ve all been expecting more from
Justin Brayton but somehow he falls short.
I actually think he was more comfortable on the Honda. I also believe he’s faster than his teammate-so
who’s pushing who? As before, with
Stewart and Windham out of the picture, he should be able to take advantage.
10. Broc Tickle – This will be the week Broc breaks the top
10. He’s improved his finishes in each
of the last 3 races and with Carmichael in his ear; you know he’s bound to cut
loose. Everything seems to be in place
so all he has to do is execute.
250 SUPERCROSS CLASS
1. Eli Tomac – Even from behind you just can’t stop the
#1. I thought Roczen could hold him off
if he got out front but that didn’t happen.
This is quickly becoming a race for second place and boy what a race it
is. What should be discouraging for the
other riders is that Eli has not made any real mistakes in the first 3 rounds
and statistics are surely in his favor.
2. Cole Seely – I think Seely has a great day this
weekend. His fitness may have slipped
toward the end of the race but until then Roczen didn’t have an answer for the
#43. He’ll need to have a better start
than Roczen to pull it off and that’s just what I expect to happen this
weekend.
3. Ken Roczen – Every week that goes by Ken has to be
feeling some pressure and that’s when mistakes happen. He has great times when no one is in front of
him but he can’t seem to sustain that drive when the competition gets
close. Clearly practice laps don’t
translate to wins.
4. Jason Anderson – Jason got a poor start last week but
posted the 4th fastest lap times. He
couldn’t find his way around Christian Craig last week but with a better start
he’ll have some momentum to work with.
5. Zach Osborne – With a teammate like Tomac, you’re bound
to pick up some valuable tips and it’s paying off for Zach. He’s off to a great start and I expect to see
him in the top 5 pretty regularly. This
week I think Anderson gets a jump on him early and the two will bang ‘em to the
checkered flag.
6. Jake Canada – Another rider having a great season. Jake and Zach Osborne battled it out last
week with Osborne holding him off to the end.
Expect more of the same this week.
I’ve been impressed with Jake’s consistency and now his times are
getting better too.
7. Tyla Rattray – I couldn’t decide which Pro Circuit rider
would have a better day and finally settled on Rattray. Tyla’s been with the team a lot longer and
should be more comfortable on the bike of course his season hasn’t started off
that great but that can change.
8. Martin Davalos – Martin had a bad start last week but
he’s proven he can compete with the fastest guys on the track. He’ll get a better start this week and maybe
even take a holeshot unfortunately he doesn’t have the speed to hold the lead
yet.
9. Christian Craig – Christian got off the gate
smoking. Canada and Osborne came up from
behind but he was able to hold off Rattray and Jason Anderson, which is not
easy. I think we’ll hear a lot more from
Craig but for now he’s got to be happy with a top 10 finish.
10. Jessy Nelson – Another toss up for a top 10 but I can’t
get over how well the #36 is riding.
He’s shown that with a good start he is capable of a top 10 and dare I
say a top 5. He’ll need to find that
extra gear to keep Cunningham out of the top 10 and I think he’ll do it. Great season so far for the rookie.
Oakland here they come!
The Roost'r
Oakland here they come!
The Roost'r
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