I predict the next round to revert back to the mean. Given the circumstances that played out in round 1, the probabilities of that happening again are quite low. When you start to combine statistics with more usable data the probabilities start to swing your way. Of course you can't ignore random events and that's what makes predictions such a challenge, especially in racing. I still have my convictions but let's see how they were influenced by last weeks events. In the words of Bugs Bunny; On with the show...
450 SUPERCROSS CLASS
1. Ryan Dungey – I thought Dungey would finish just out of
the top 3 last week and he would have had Barcia kept it on two wheels. It was clear Dungey was faster than Barcia
last week but he just couldn’t find an opening to make a pass or he wasn’t
willing to take a risk to gain the position.
I predict Dungey gets a better start this week and is faced with
defending his position more so than challenging for position. I see Dungey taking 1st place at Phoenix.
2. Justin Barcia - Barcia wasn't the fastest last week and
a hard charging Dungey just may have forced him into a mistake. That won’t happen this week! This field will find it difficult to get past
number 51 since he rides with great track presence. He’s definitely fast enough to win and I
believe racing from behind is an advantage for him. Reed, Canard and Stewart may challenge Justin
this week but his aggressive riding style will be too much to overcome. Barcia will land in the number 2 spot this
weekend.
3. Trey Canard – Trey’s ride last week was nothing short of
amazing. He had a goal and wanted to
make sure we all knew it. He could smell
the win and perhaps the adrenaline was too much at the point of attack and
caused a bobble. Now he knows he can
compete and he’ll be ready for round 2.
He’s healthy and his confidence has to be high however I don’t believe
he’ll take any unnecessary risks. Riding
in front made a huge difference in his approach to the race but I don’t see
that kind of start this week. He’ll be
battling Stewart and Reed all night and should be successful holding them
off. Look for Canard to pull off a 3rd
place finish.
4. James Stewart - James and the whole team have to be terribly disappointed with the outcome last week. I believe James took it easy to save the knee and salvaged some valuable points in the process. He'll probably do the same this week which should be an advantage. I've always felt that if he rides more like Reed or Dungey and less like James Stewart, his other skills are enough to take the checkered flag. Of course that's not his style so he'll have to adapt which won't happen overnight. James shows us all what a fighter he is and comes in 4th.
5. Chad Reed – Chad showed he’s back and with his top
competition in question, he smells blood in the water. I didn’t get a sense of confidence in his
pre-race interview but now he has to know the title is in play. He’s not quite at the level he should be but
should challenge for a top 5 finish.
He’ll need a mistake from Stewart and Canard to make the top 3 and I don’t see that
happening. He has sponsors to answer to
so he won’t push too hard so as not to jeopardize the season. If he has a great finish this week, he’ll go
for it in round 3. This week I predict
Chad to finish number 5.
6. Jake Weimer – Weimer proved he isn’t afraid to twist the
throttle last week and although his lap times weren’t the best, he still managed a
5th place finish. Weimer has been very
fast at Phoenix and he’s tasted victory here before. Weimer battled Reed all night but just
couldn’t find his way around him. Weimer
will have to deal with an energized Chad Reed and this week will be no different. Weimer will pass the
checkered flag in 6th place.
7. Davi Millsaps – I think Davi surprised himself last week
as he did all of us. I’d like to say
that Davi is back and will challenge for the title but I’m just not quite there yet. I don’t think he was lucky so
kudos on a great race. I also don’t
think that ride is sustainable. He’s
never shown he is a consistent top 3 rider and one week won’t change that. I like Davi but last week will be hard to
repeat-I hope he can prove me wrong. He
won’t get the start he needs but a top 10 finish should be no problem. The number 18 Suzuki flies in at number 7.
8. Mike Alessi – Mike’s luck will change this week; it has
to. He can compete and although he won’t
make the top 5 this week, he will redeem himself. He seems to beat himself in one way or another and you do that too often it inevitably becomes the statistic you end up facing each week. He’ll get a great start as always and keep it
on two wheels; Alessi will cross the finish line in 8th to close the evening.
9. Broc Tickle – Broc didn't ride up to his potential last week but I expect him to put that behind him this week. He’s gotta be pumped with his new team and no
one knows the Suzuki better than Ricky Carmichael. Phoenix will be an opportunity to make up
some points and a top 10 position should be a lock; Broc steals 9th this week
in the Grand Canyon State.
10. Justin Brayton - Brayton had a good ride at A1 but no huge surprises. I wasn't far off last week and given my convictions this week I see Brayton breaking into the top 10 again. He'll battle Short all evening but ultimately I believe Brayton will be a little faster. I see Brayton charging to a 10th place finish.
RIDER NOTES
Ryan Villopoto – This is me going way out on the limb; I
don’t see Ryan lining up for the main. We are only in round 2 and if at any time his team feels they could jeopardize
the whole season they’ll proceed with caution and this includes sitting out a
round. He’ll run practice and here he’ll
get an idea how the knee holds up. He had major
knee surgery and if he re-injured that knee it will take even longer to heal the
second time and they won’t risk that.
You can bet they’re crunching the numbers and they shouldn’t make the
same mistake the Redskins did with RG3. Of course I could be wrong and if he does end up racing, I see him placing 3rd and everyone else moves down a spot.
Josh Grant – Josh can’t be happy with an 11th place
finish and probably a bit disappointing to the team as well. He couldn’t get past Brayton and finally dropped
a spot to Windham in the final laps. He
has a better chance this week but I don’t think he’ll crack the top 10 this
round.
Kevin Windham – Number 14 has lasting power because he
hasn’t needed to take too many chances.
In the twilight of his career I think he’s happy just to be
competitive. He has meant so much to the
sport, it’s a privilege just to see him race.
I have tremendous respect for #14 but that aside, Windham remains one of
the worlds’ fastest on a Supercross track and will just miss the top 10.
Andrew Short – Short surprised me last week with his 6th
place finish. Stewart and Villopoto are
certainly faster so if those two guys are healthy Short drops to 8th. If Barcia doesn't fall Short quickly finds himself in 9th. This field will be incomplete without the
fastest guys healthy and although both the Stewart and Villopoto camps aren’t
as transparent as we’d like, Short does have a legitimate shot at a top 10 finish, I just don't see it happening this week.
I would be pleased if my top 10 actually placed in the top 10 in any order, then I would know I'm getting closer. The 450 class is a bit easier to predict and as I continue to study each rider my success rate should improve. Look for 250SX predictions soon; should take a bit more brain power. Phoenix next!
AR
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