2013 Supercross: Predictions | 450 Class

Anaheim 1 is just around the corner and it’s time to put our SX knowledge to the test.  There always risk in making predictions but as the old saying goes; “no guts, no glory.”  I have no magic formula for my predictions, just my observations watching hours of recordings during the off-season.  So, as an outsider looking in, here are my Anaheim 1 predictions for the 450 class.

James Stewart – I think Stewart takes his first win this weekend on the Yoshimura Suzuki.  I've always criticized Stewart for entertaining so many distractions in the past and now that he's dimmed the limelight somewhat I think he'll be more focused and faster as ever.

Ryan Villopoto – For Anaheim 1 I see Ryan on the podium but not with the main win.  He'll have to push harder with a complete field and I believe he'll be a little cautious on that injured knee.  Look for RV to take 2nd at A1 this weekend.

Justin Barcia –  Justin showed that he's here to race at the Monster Energy Cup and he's not afraid to take chances.  He's a Lites Champion and that experience will pay dividends on the big bikes.  I dig Justin's riding style, he reminds me a lot of Jason Lawrence and brings incredible excitement to the races, I'm a huge fan.  I think he'll be competing with Dungey for the 3rd spot and will ultimately take the position to the finish line.

Ryan Dungey – In this round I don't see RD finishing in the top 3, shocker I know!  Dungey has always been a very calculating rider and I think he'll have a hard time getting past the aggressive riding he's likely to see in his top competition.  He's definitely fast but not a huge risk taker, Dungey will place 4th just behind Barcia.  It's not easy announcing my favorite rider won't be on the podium this weekend, I hope he can prove me wrong.

Chad Reed – Chad will just lose out of the top 3 but certainly not for lack of effort.  Chad is a very tenacious rider but I think 20 laps at top speed will put a bit too much stress on the knee and may hold him back a bit this round.  Chad has always been such an inspiration and a consummate professional and I'd like to see him in the top 3, perhaps in the following rounds; I'll send a little mojo his way.  I look for Reed to place 5th this Saturday.

Mike Alessi – I was very impressed with Mike's efforts outdoors.  He's shown that he's still relevant despite the absence of Villopoto, Stewart and Chad Reed.  His holeshot prowess will serve him well, as always, however I don't see him in the top 5.  He's quickly earning a new following, present company included.  Alessi is my wildcard and I think he'll place 6th this weekend.

Josh Grant – Josh has struggled to find his pace lately but I think he knows how important this season is to his career and he’ll push himself hard and fight for position.  He had a strong showing at the Monster Energy Cup but unfortunately his competition is just riding a bit faster these days and I don't see him placing in the top 5.  I see Josh taking a respectable 7th to begin the 2013 SX season.

Davi Millsaps – Millsaps has always been there but a top 3 finish has eluded him for too long.  He seems to take advantage of others mistakes but he can’t rely on his competition to make mistakes if he expects to win races.  He’s a great rider but a top 10 finish is as good as it gets this round.  I see Millsaps taking 8th on Saturday.   

Trey Canard – It's been a while since we've seen Trey Canard on the race track and he'll be a little rusty this weekend.  He'll want to prove he's only down but not out and that he can still run up front with the best.  It will take a couple of rounds to find his pace so I predict he'll place 9th just behind Davi Millsaps, which would be a great showing after all the injuries.

Jake Weimer – Jake too has had a bit of a struggle on the big bike and I don't think he'll have it dialed in when Anaheim 1 rolls around.  He's been criticized for his passive aggressive riding style which I believe can be used to his advantage-float like a butterfly, sting like a bee; I'm a fan!  Weimer and Canard will battle this weekend with Weimer eventually falling to 10th when the checkered flag drops on A1.

Finally, I predict Broc Tickle, Kevin Windham, Andrew Short, Justin Brayton, Josh Hill, Antonio Balbi, Robert Kiniry, Matt Lemoine, Cole Siebler and Vince Friese to round out the top 20.

That's my top 20; will it be good enough for Vegas?  I guess we'll see on January 5th when the gate drops to start the 2013 Supercross season.

I'll tackle the Lites class in my next post, I hope I can get the East and West riders straight; that would be embarrassing.  Till then....

AR