It's crunch time and I think I'm ready to make my predictions for the Lites class. The Lites class is a bit more complicated because of the two series (West and East) and the number of riders to evaluate. Fortunately there is some great information available to help narrow down my picks and even though I've had limited time the past couple of weeks for my research I will post my 2013 predictions just in time.
Before I begin I just have one house keeping note. I am using the AMA Provisional Entry List posted January 2, 2013. This list contains 35 entries and I will base all my selections from only these 35 riders. Now that I have that taken care of, let's get the show on the road.
Darryn Durham - Durham had one of the most consistent seasons last year and this year we get to see him bang bars with Wilson, Seely and Rattray in the West. Should be a great race and I see Darryn pulling off an upset in round 1. Durham will take the top spot this weekend.
Dean Wilson - Dean also had one heck of a run last year and this year should be no different. He's healthy and backed by one of the best teams in the business. He missed the number 1 plate last year and he'll be looking for redemption. Dean will close the evening at number 2.
Cole Seely - This was a tough pick for me this weekend. Seely and Roczen were very consistent last year and had similar winning percentages but ultimately I feel Seely has a slight edge on Roczen. Seely seems really comfortable on the bike and he's also had great finishes when he gets a good start. I think he'll get a better start this weekend as well and should take the 3rd spot on the podium.
Ken Roczen - I was very impressed with Roczen's results last year but he will have to bring his A-game if he's to keep pace with the top 3. He and Durham had the same percentage of wins last year but I think with Dean in the mix, he won't be able to squeeze through the Kawasaki's this weekend. Look for Roczen to finish 4th.
Blake Baggett - Baggett was all over the board last year but still had a great year. He pulled off some unbelievable comebacks outdoors but he won't have enough track to repeat that performance on a Supercross track. We get to see him head-to-head with Seely and Wilson this year and should make for some great racing. I see Baggett taking 5th.
Tyla Rattray - Rattray started off great last year and had he been able to finish he would have surely placed in the top 5. He should be healed from his injury by now and I don't believe it will slow him down. He'll be a little rusty so I don't see him in the top 5 this round but certainly in the top 10. I believe Tyla comes in 6th in A1 this year.
Jake Canada - Jake was probably the most consistent last year than any other rider in a field that included Durham, Baggett and Roczen-that's competition for sure. He'll be familiar with these riders but how will he do against Wilson, Rattray and Seely? He should be ready but a top 5 finish will escape him this round. I predict Canada will place 7th when A1 wraps up.
Travis Baker - Travis had a rough start last year but seemed to find his pace mid way through the season. I think he'll improve marginally this year and an 8th place finish is how his evening will end.
Martin Davalos - Martin has had some good starts but can't seem to keep pace with some of his competition. He'll continue to struggle especially in this field. I see Martin take 9th.
Malcolm Stewart - Malcolm has showed a lot of grit but sometimes he seems to ride outside his abilities. He wasn't very consistent at all last year but I think he'll dial it in a littler closer this year. I look for Malcolm to round out the top 10.
Kyle Cunningham, Christian Craig and Jessy Nelson may make a run and might be able to grind out a top 10 finish so I'll at least give them a mention.
Time and scoring has surely begun and wild card weekend is drawing me away from my computer. These are my predictions for round 1 of the West Lites class; I'm crossing my fingers. An update will follow shortly after the conclusion of A1 with predictions for Phoenix to come. Supercross is here!
Alan Romero
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